ECOWAS' CHAMBAS ON ABUJA'S TOGO MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000809

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TO NI
SUBJECT: ECOWAS' CHAMBAS ON ABUJA'S TOGO MEETING

REF: ABUJA 651

Classified By: Political Counselor James Maxstadt for Reasons 1.4 b AND
d.


1. (C) Summary: The Executive Secretary of ECOWAS believes
a split is developing in the Togolese opposition, with
Gnininvi and Agboyibo leading a faction that trusts Faure's
intentions and is willing to work with him in a new
government. Chambas is not sure that Olympio and the UFC are
committed to peace if their demands are not met, and said the
Heads of State present at the May 19 meeting in Abuja
included language on avoiding violence in their Communique in
response to those concerns. Akitani-Bob did not show up,
apparently sick. End Summary.


2. (C) PolMilOff met with ECOWAS Executive Secretary
Chambas May 20 to discuss the May 19 meeting, held in Abuja,
on the crisis in Togo. Also present was ECOWAS Director of
Political Affairs Abu, who also happens to be Togolese.
Chambas characterized the May 19 meeting as a "mixed bag,"
with Faure being very amenable, and Chambas believes serious,
about involving the opposition in the new government. The
opposition was less sure of its position. The opposition has
asked for a week to consider its position, at which point
they will get back to Chambas. No date for a future meeting
of Faure, the opposition, and Heads of State has been set
yet. Heads of State attending were Obasanjo of Nigeria,
Kufuor of Ghana, Kerekou of Benin, Compaore of Burkina Faso,
Tandja of Niger and Bongo of Gabon.


3. (C) Chambas said the most significant development was
that Faure committed, to the six Heads of State present, to
embark on a reform agenda and to accommodate the opposition
in his government. Chambas also said Faure understands the
burden is on him to send signals to the opposition that they
are welcome in the government. The most impressive gesture
Faure made, according to Chambas, was to offer a plan for
bringing the Olympio family back to Togo, including the
deceased patriarch of the family who is buried outside Togo
due to a change in borders after decolonization. Faure
additionally offered to provide Olympio with a house in Togo
and security assurances. Faure was insistent, however, that
Olympio show him more respect, pointing to the BBC interview
broadcast on May 18 in which Olympio repeatedly referred to
Faure as "that boy."


4. (C) The biggest sticking point for the opposition was
and is the tenure of the new unity government. Most,
especially Olympio, remained committed to a transitional
unity government with a term of office of less than 5 years.
Chambas said the six Heads of State above all demanded that
the opposition agree that the unity government have the full
5-year term, both for Constitutional reasons and because the
magnitude of the issues the new government will be facing
will require more than 1 year to solve.


5. (C) Chambas thinks that a split is developing in the
radical opposition, with a faction that believes working with
Faure is both reasonable and the best path forward, and that
they are moving away from Olympio's inflexible position.
This new faction is led, Chambas believes, by Gnininvi and by
Agboyibo. Chambas was not assured that the UFC and Olympio
are willing to be politically and peacefully involved in
reform. He said the portion of the ECOWAS Communique (which
post faxed to the Operations Center) that dealt with violence
was written to pressure Olympio and the UFC not to return to
violence.


6. (C) Chambas said the Heads of State, including Obasanjo,
were getting impatient with the situation and may be less
inclined to such summits on Togo. Chambas said he is also
very wary of creating a Cote d'Ivoire-like situation in Togo,
in which the President and Prime Minister were unable to work
together. He thought out loud about finding solution where
some Togolese technocrat (working for the IMF, World Bank, or
UN, or a working in an executive-level corporate position in
France, he suggested) would be acceptable to the opposition
and come in to run the government as Prime Minister, but
would be uninterested in politics or positioning himself for
the Presidency. Chambas said he has not come up with any
names so far, but he will continue to work on this idea.


7. (C) COMMENT: It seems the May 19 meeting did not move
the ball forward much further than we were in the reftel
report on ECOWAS and Obasanjo just after the election.
Gnassingbe is still seen by Chambas as being cooperative,
probably by Obasanjo as well. Much of the opposition is
still not ready to sign on to a unity government, at least
not for a full 5-year term, and do not trust Chambas to be
neutral. Obasanjo and the other heads of state are still the
movers on this process, although Chambas' thought that they
were wearying of Togo may well be true. The goal for
Chambas, and assumedly for Obasanjo in setting up his model
for dealing with such crises (reftel),is still the creation
of a unity government that includes all major players.
Obasanjo and the other heads of state may, however, be
willing to settle for making the unity government offer
credible, and letting some of the opposition opt out if it
can be shown to be their free choice.
FUREY