PRES. OBASANJO CONSOLIDATES HIS GRIP ON RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002289

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PRES. OBASANJO CONSOLIDATES HIS GRIP ON RULING
PARTY

REF: A. ABUJA 2244

B. ABUJA 2079

Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) President Obasanjo continues to consolidate his grip
on the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in preparation
for its national convention early next year. The results of
the latest regional (zonal) congresses of the PDP confirm
Obasanjo's control over party machinery. Success in
completely dominating the ruling party has apparently given
President Obasanjo and his allies enough confidence to allow
them to begin to reveal the contours of a more ambitious
political agenda.

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Obasanjo's PDP: It's My Party
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2. (U) The PDP conducted its party congresses over the
weekend of November 12-13 in the six geo-political zones of
the country. For the most part, the events were drama-free,
although several long-standing party divisions at the state
level are still unresolved. Like the congresses on the local
and state level, officers were not voted into office, but
rather chosen by the party hierarchy and merely "affirmed" by
local participants. This process of pre-determination of
office holders was exclusive, thereby weeding out any
potential non-loyalists to Obasanjo. The affirmation process
was also in contravention of both the party's constitution
and a high court ruling compelling the party to follow its
own rules.


3. (C) In one case, a rival candidate for a regional
position refused to give way to the party's hand-picked
candidate, forcing a vote. In the process, the rival won the
majority of the votes, but President Obasanjo personally
vetoed his election, appointing the loser in his place.

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Limited Options for PDP-ers Outside the Inner Circle
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4. (C) Party members who have been dealt out of the PDP
have used a number of strategies in hopes of regaining entry.
In several states parallel party congresses were conducted
and alternate PDP leadership structures elected. But this
far into the party nomination process, President Obasanjo's
complete control of the ruling party appears irreversible.
Although the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) has the
statutory power to intervene in intra-party fights, it has
not made any public comment and is unlikely to become
involved in sorting out the situation, especially given that
the PDP ignored a previous Abuja High Court ruling.


5. (U) In some cases, dissent from within the PDP has
morphed into organized opposition. Disgruntled current and
former PDP members met recently in Lagos to form the Movement
for the Defense of Democracy (MDD),a new national pressure
group, and, potentially, a political party. The formation of
the MDD has been supplemented by Movement for the Restoration
of Democracy (MRD),organized last week, which is a Northern
pressure group organizing against a third term, and the
formation this week of the Northern Members Forum (NMF),a
grouping of Northern members of the National Assembly from
both parties. The NMF's meeting November 21 at the Abuja
Hilton attracted about 1,000 attendees. The keynote speaker
was Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who made a low-key speech
in which he said that he had recently been "de-registered" by
the PDP. The NMF claims to have pledges against a third term
from 189 legislators.


6. (C) The controversy may have spawned yet another
gathering of concerned citizens as well. It appears that at
least 65 community organizations from throughout the country
are organizing a series of protests beginning in Lagos and
Abuja by mid-December. Comprised of mostly twenty- and
thirty-something activists, this group intends to bring
pressure on the governors and National Assembly members
through rallies organized in key locations.

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Comment
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7. (C) Although public criticism of the congresses
continues, actual violence at party meetings has decreased as
many PDP partisans have either created their own structures
or joined with other allies. The Vice President, although
hurt, is not yet finished. He still maintains the capacity
to cause problems for the PDP and fully intends to continue
the fight. His supporters also apparently have become the
catalyst for the formation of structured opposition to any
attempt to extend President Obasanjo's current mandate.
FUREY