SCENARIOS FOR 2007 ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002244

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SCENARIOS FOR 2007 ELECTION


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas P. Furey for Reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary: Though potential candidates are already
flinging mud and jockeying for position, there is no clear
front-runner for Nigeria's 2007 presidential election. The
role that President Obasanjo will play is still an important
and open question. Will he be a kingmaker, eventually
anointing a successor? Could he extend his current term
beyond 2007? Or will Obasanjo find a legal means to run for
a third term? Other potential candidates will take their cue
from Obasanjo and are eagerly awaiting a signal of his
intentions. Public bickering between VP Atiku and Obasanjo
demonstrates their rivalry for PDP backing in 2007. Other
heavyweights such as former leaders Ibrahim Babangida and
Muhammadu Buhari are also active and will help shape the
upcoming election season. End Summary.

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There's a will . . .
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2. (C) The sense amongst Nigeria's political elite is that
President Obasanjo wants to remain in power beyond 2007.
However, Nigeria's constitution limits the President to two
terms in office. It is still an open question whether
Obasanjo will step down and throw his support to another
People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate or whether he will
look for a means to stay in office beyond 2007.


3. (C) Obasanjo has not yet given a definitive signal that he
is out of the 2007 race. He denied vehemently in public that
he had "sworn on the Bible" that he would not run, as
requested by his Vice President Atiku Abubakar. He has also
thus far declined to throw his support to any of the other
contenders for the PDP nomination, even as he promises
several of them that "ultimately" they might be Obasanjo's
"chosen one." Even if Obasanjo plans to step down, it is
possible that he prefers to keep the party fractured for as
long as possible, in order to avoid becoming a lame duck and
protect his ability to hand-pick his successor. Once the PDP
candidate emerges, a great deal of power and loyalty will
shift to him even before the election, as members look to
curry favor with a new administration.

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But is there a way?
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4. (C) Embassy believes that there are three potential means
for Obasanjo to extend his tenure in office. He could either
extend his current term by declaring a state of emergency and
delaying elections, or he could run for a third term. The
other option bruited is the extension of the term by two
years. However, legally such an extension would only be
valid for future terms according to Nigerian jurisprudence.


5. (C) The first option would be easiest to initiate *
declare a state of emergency and remain in office
indefinitely, albeit in six month increments. The current
constitution allows this, and there are a number of crises
bubbling under the surface that could be used as a pretext
for an emergency declaration (i.e. Biafra, the Delta,
Bakassi, Muslim-Christian tensions, ethnic tensions, or even
corruption.) The state of emergency route could backfire,
however. Political elites and the military might question
how an extension of Obasanjo's tenure would solve any
national "emergency" if he was unable to solve the problem
during his 8 years in office. The military and the political
class could ask why not install another leader to restore
order, perhaps a military leader?


6. (C) The "third term" option is both risky and currently
illegal. Contacts report that Obasanjo has lawyers studying
the constitution and looking for any loopholes that might
allow him to get around its two-term limit. If this effort
fails, he could also work to have the constitution amended.
An amendment is a complicated procedure (as in the USA)
requiring ratification by both chambers of the National
Assembly and 24 of Nigeria's 36 states. Even if Obasanajo
were successful in obtaining a legal green light to run for a
third term, he would still have to win the election.
Considering his deep unpopularity with Nigerians from all
walks of life and the current list of other candidates, his
chances of winning a free and fair election are almost nil.
Even winning a less than free and fair election would take
tremendous support from the political coteries and the
security services, support not evident at the moment. It is
not certain that Obasanjo has enough support from within the
system to win even a rigged election this time.

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VP Atiku fighting for the nomination
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7. (C) Press reports over the past several weeks have
described "open warfare" between President Obasanjo and Vice
President Atiku Abubakar. This is exaggerated, but
allegations of corruption are flying in both directions.
Atiku's enemies cited the August 3 raid of his wife's home in
Washington as evidence of his corruption, while Orji Kalu
sent a letter to the President and then to the media alleging
Obasanjo is corrupt. The President's response was to order
the EFCC to "thoroughly investigate" the allegations against
him. Kalu, expressing skepticism, refused to cooperate with
the EFCC rightly pointing out that it has no jurisdiction
over incumbent office-holders, including the head of state.

8. (C) The real question is how much of the PDP is loyal to
Atiku rather than Obasanjo. Some were calling for Atiku's
ouster from the PDP, but many are loyal to him, including key
governors and party stalwarts. Recent events have indicated
that Obasanjo, rather than dealing with the elements of the
party against his third term ambitions, is engineering out
all opponents. If Atiku leaves the party, a significant
factor will be how much of the structure of the former
People's Democratic Movement (PDM) will go with him? Founded
by Obasanjo's deputy during his 1976-1979 regime, Shehu
Yar'adua, the PDM remains the strongest and most cohesive
political structure in Nigeria and provided the muscle that
propelled Obasanjo to two terms as President. That
organization is fractured now, with part of the group
remaining with the Vice President, a number of the group
moving to the President and several others trying to maintain
the cohesiveness of a political organization with an ideology
while looking for a candidate. Still, the remnants command a
political structure that remains unrivaled in the political
arena. Only Obasanjo, with his control of governmental
organizations, can claim a structure to rival its nationwide
political influence.


9. (C) The first rumblings of a new force breaking off from
the PDP have already been heard. On November 7, a group of
60 politicians met in Lagos to form the Movement for the
Defence of Democracy (MDD). MDD organizers include Audu
Ogbeh, the former National Chairman of the PDP (until he was
ousted by Obasanjo in early 2005),Lawal Kaita, National
Chairman of the PDM, and other heavyweights. The MDD says
that its aim is to organize resistance to the "dictatorial
actions of the Obasanjo administration and defend the 1999
constitution." For now the MDD is calling itself a "new
political organization," but could formalize into a party in
order to contest the 2007 elections. Given the makeup of the
organization, this could be the first signs of the Vice
President's future election vehicle.

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Don't Forget The Rest of the Country
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10. (C) While former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida (IBB)
still makes noises about his presidential ambitions, most
observers are dismissing his commitment. Historically, IBB
has not taken action until he was guaranteed victory,
preferring to maintain his mythological invincibility
instead. According to some, Obasanjo told him specifically
to stand down his campaign as "there is no vacancy." Even
so, IBB will be able to create mischief and influence the
outcome of the political games whether as a candidate or not.


11. (C) ANPP's 2003 Presidential Candidate Muhammadu Buhari
is the other serious player in the 2007 scenario. He has
stated his intent to run, but has done little to revive his
political organization since the conclusion of the lawsuit
against the 2003 elections. With both the President and the
Vice President interfering with the ANPP's operations, it is
unclear whether Buhari can, or wants to, remain with that
party. He had a parallel organization in 2003 and could
easily take his organization and his millions of grassroots
supporters to another party.

12. (C) At the same time, minority politicians from both
the South-South and the Southeast are making noises, claiming
that it is their turn to rule the country. Other than
corrupt governors, (and they are almost all corrupt) serious
politicians with the stature to compete are few and far
between. Still a political realignment could take place
based on these regional aspirations that would weaken the two
major national parties, the PDP and the ANPP, and strengthen
regional parties and associations, giving a shot to a
minority candidate.

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Comment
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13. (C) The scenarios leading up to the 2007 elections all
hinge on one thing: Obasanjo's intention to either step down
or continue. The irrelevance of his reforms to the masses
leads to Obasanjo's lack of support on the street. Anger
with his regime is palpable, but Nigerians are long suffering
and could allow him to finish his current term. The
expectation of continuation, though, changes the dynamic. As
civil society searches for a way to challenge the government
machinery in the face of treason charges and continuing
insecurity and instability, the political situation may
become tenser, with localized flare-ups increasing.

FUREY