NIGERIA: NIGERIAN AMBASSADOR TO U.S. FEARS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002127

SIPDIS

USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE - PASS TO POLAD
LONDON PASS TO JACMOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/4/15
TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NIGERIAN AMBASSADOR TO U.S. FEARS
NIGERIA'S BREAKUP UNLESS CONSTITUTION IS CHANGED


Classified by Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons: 1.5,
b, d.


1. (S) Summary George Obiozor, Nigeria's ambassador to the
U.S., fears that Nigeria will break up "like Yugoslavia"
unless the presidency's rotation amongst the geopolitical
regions is "institutionalized" by a new or revised
constitution. He advocates President Obasanjo remaining in
office past 2007 to preside over a constitutional
convention. End summary.


2. (S) George Obiozor came to lunch, at his request, on
November 2. His message was that there is serious danger
that Nigeria will disintegrate in the near future if the
rotation amongst the regions of the presidency is not
institutionalized by a new constitution. He said that the
North's assumption that the next president of Nigeria will
be a Northern Muslim is misplaced; the South, the
South/South and the East, especially the old Biafra, will
violently object. He described Nigeria as riddled with
religious, ethnic and social conflicts, with too many of
the fault lines being between the ever-poorer North and
rest of Nigeria. The fundamental poverty of the North, he
said, had long been obscured by the fact that the region
controlled the Federal government -- and benefited
formally, informally and disproportionately from energy
revenue. The South, centered on the old Biafra, had been
frozen out of national power since the end of the civil
war. But, he continued, the South would no longer accept
the inevitability that the next president of Nigeria will
be a Northern Muslim. Unless there is a fundamental change
in Nigeria's governance, he continued, there was a
possibility, even probability that the country would
degenerate into "chaotic civil war" -- that the country
would breakup like Yugoslavia, not peacefully like
Czechoslovakia or the Soviet Union. And the resulting
chaos would provide opportunities for external terrorist
organizations to establish themselves more deeply in the
North.


3. (S) Obiozor dismissed the current leading candidates:
Buhari is a Muslim fanatic; Marwa has no national
constituency; Atiku is corrupt. Only Babangida, with his
wealth and national network has a chance -- but he may not
have the ambition. Obiozor said that the next president is
likely to come from amongst the governors -- or "an elder
statesman." But, Obiozor continued, much of Nigeria will
no longer accept a Northern Muslim candidate. He said the
South/South, the South and the East are likely to follow
the "Croatian model" during the early days of Yugoslavia's
disintegration and boycott -- or worse -- an election in
which the leading presidential candidates are Northern
Muslims.


4. (S) The way out, Obiozor continued, is for President
Obasanjo to remain in office past 2007 to preside over a
constitutional convention that would establish a single-
term presidency of five or six years and institutionalize
its rotation amongst the geopolitical regions -- with the
South coming first and the North last. I asked about the
likely reaction of the Dangote and Dantata clans that have
controlled so much of Northern political life. Obiozor
said that they would be willing to forego controlling the
presidency to ensure political stability in Nigeria. When
I asked about southern candidates, Obiozor said that they
are legion -- once the assumption that the next president
must be a Northern Muslim is set aside. When I pressed him
further, he said that Rivers State Governor Peter Odili is
particularly attractive. He did not respond to my question
about what President Obasanjo's views might be on remaining
in office temporarily to preside over a constitutional
convention.


5. (S) Comment: Obiozor came to lunch immediately after
his meeting with the President, and he said he had spent
several hours with the President the night before.
However, Obiozor did not claim to be speaking on behalf of
the President. His assessment of the possibility or
probability of a bloody breakup of Nigeria is unusual here
in government circles, more common in civil society. On
the other hand, the emphasis he puts on the increasing
disaffection of the southern regions of the country is
salutary; with our focus on the bunkering and militia
activity in the delta and the broad disaffection in the
North it is easy to lose sight of the deep sense of
grievance to be found elsewhere in Nigeria. All of the
current leading presidential candidates -- Babangida,
Buhari, Marwa, Atiku are Northern Muslims who are part of
the traditional establishment; Obiozor is warning that the
game may no longer be played by the old rules.


6. (S) Comment Continued: Obiozor's bottom line is that
only President Obasanjo can save the country from chaos and
disintegration -- by presiding over a constitutional
convention that would have the effect of increasing (or
restoring) the power of the area of the old Biafra and
adjacent areas by institutionalizing the rotation of the
presidency amongst all of the regions. Note: implicit in
Obiozor's idea of constitutional convention presided over
by President Obasanjo is the postponement of the 2007
elections. In the context of a constitutional convention,
this might even be legal. Obiozor is an Ibo from Enugu
state, a Christian, who has been a fixture of every regime
since Shagari's. An academic (he refers to himself as
professor),Obiozor is a former ambassador to Israel. He
has not been commonly regarded as part of president
Obasanjo's inner circle. A consummate survivor in Nigeria's
tumultuous politics, he knows from whence his bread is
buttered. Obiozor has been playing an increasingly active
part in PDP politics by working with fellow pro-Obasanjo
Ibos to weaken anti-Obasanjo PDP governors in the
Southeast. If Obasanjo hangs on after 2007, Obiozor
figures to likewise benefit. While we have no doubt that
Obiozor believes what he told us, his outlook is also
shaped by his political bias and self-interests. End
comment.
CAMPBELL