RULING PARTY'S ILLEGAL ACTIONS CAUSE CONFUSION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002079

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY'S ILLEGAL ACTIONS CAUSE CONFUSION AND
VIOLENCE


Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reason 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (U) SUMMARY: The crisis within the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) widened after its leadership ignored
an Abuja High Court order and organized non-elective
congresses on October 15, which excluded non-Obasanjo
loyalists and their supporters. The congresses were
characterized by confusion and violence and raised the
political temperature in Nigeria as PDP rivals play out their
winner take all contest for the control of the party. END
SUMMARY


2. (C) The current problem plaguing the ruling party is
the continuation of the power struggle between President
Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar for
control of the PDP's party machinery. As the pre-election
competition for the 2007 presidential election heats up,
Abubakar has declared his candidacy, and apparently President
Obasanjo privately opposes it. Although he currently is
constitutionally ineligible to remain in office, President
Obasanjo continues to act as if he is an incumbent candidate,
leading to rampant speculation about the possibility of a
third term.


3. (C) In addition, over the last two years President
Obasanjo has methodically inserted his allies in key PDP
executive positions, often contravening the party's
constitution. In an earlier move to winnow out supporters of
the Vice President, the party's executive decreed that all
party members must re-register, in effect dissolving the
current PDP. When the Vice President and his local supporters
went to register in his home ward, they were all denied
registration. According to an Obasanjo activist, working for
the "Abacha 2 Project," as he described it, the PDP members
in the district decided among themselves to disallow Atiku's
registration. One week later Abubakar was allowed to
register, but in his office, leaving the issue of
registration of his local supporters unresolved.


4. (U) The latest controversy stems from the party
leaders' decision to ignore an Abuja High Court ruling that
mandated that the party must abide by its own constitution
and hold elective congresses. According to the PDP's
constitution, all congresses should freely elect office
holders from party members. The PDP national executive,
itself not empowered according to the party's constitution,
directed that local party members, rather than voting for
representatives of their choice, could only affirm
pre-determined lists of candidates from the Abuja
headquarters.


5. (U) PDP party members challenged this directive,
saying it violated party rules. The Abuja High Court agreed
and concluded that..."Going ahead with the non-elective
congresses and convention will bring about anarchy and cause
a breach of peace among its leaders. Party leaders should
lead by example."



6. (U) Leadership of the PDP appealed the court order.
But before the appeal could be heard, the party leadership
organized non-elective congresses around the country in which
the winners were all Obasanjo loyalists. The illegal move
extended control of the president's faction to the local
level.



7. (U) The resulting confusion and violence varied from
state to state. Parallel congresses were held in Kwara, Edo,
Adamawa and Oyo states, in which two slates of party office
holders were elected, one loyal to Obasanjo, one not.
Violence was reported in many states, including Ogun, Oyo,
Delta and Rivers where at least 20 people died during the
selections. Journalists were prevented from observing the
process in Nassarawa State and the congresses were canceled
in Bayelsa State. Several days later in Abuja, 100 busloads
of women (about one thousand protesters) from Plateau and
Nassarawa attempted to register their dissatisfaction at PDP
national party headquarters. The police prevented the
protest, though, and "deported" the women back to the state
line.


8. (U) Ignoring the court order, a PDP party spokesmen
denied that the congresses were rigged or illegal. President
Obasanjo denied the congresses were fraudulent and challenged
disgruntled party members to quit. This high stakes ultimatum
leaves the President's rivals within the party little choice
but to fight back, or leave the party they created.


9. (C) COMMENT: These events are the latest round in a
high stakes game of political elimination in which President
Obasanjo's faction of the PDP has demonstrated its
willingness to use whatever means necessary, including
violence and ignoring court rulings, in an effort to control
the party and to exclude those it deems disloyal to the
President's wishes. Thus, the blatant disregard for the rule
of law in organizing and conducting the PDP's internal party
congresses has set the precedent of confusion and violence
for the other parties. If President Obasanjo and the PDP's
leadership continues employing the same tactics, violence is
almost certain to escalate. One possible consequence of this
"scorched earth" policy is the continuing erosion of
confidence in the political process as the Presidential
faction of the ruling party willingly violates the law in
order to implement President Obasonjo's will in 2007.
CAMPBELL