Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ABUJA1902
2005-10-05 08:40:00
SECRET
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU CONVINCED

Tags:  PGOV PREL NI THIRDTERM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

050840Z Oct 05
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001902 

SIPDIS

USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE - PASS TO POLAD
LONDON PASS TO JACMOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

E.O. 12958: DECL 10/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU CONVINCED
PRESIDENT OBASANJO WILL TRY ANYTHING TO STAY IN OFFICE


Classified By: Campbell, John, Ambassador, Abuja, State
Reason(s): 1.5 (b,(d).

REFS: (A) ABUJA 1845, (B) ABUJA 1703, (C),ABUJA 1635,
(D) LAGOS 1363, (E) LONDON 7934

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001902

SIPDIS

USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE - PASS TO POLAD
LONDON PASS TO JACMOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

E.O. 12958: DECL 10/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU CONVINCED
PRESIDENT OBASANJO WILL TRY ANYTHING TO STAY IN OFFICE


Classified By: Campbell, John, Ambassador, Abuja, State
Reason(s): 1.5 (b,(d).

REFS: (A) ABUJA 1845, (B) ABUJA 1703, (C),ABUJA 1635,
(D) LAGOS 1363, (E) LONDON 7934


1. (S) Summary: Atiku believes that President Obasanjo
will try anything to stay in power past 2007, including
exploiting unrest in the Delta and the Bakassi dispute to
justify postponement of the elections. The Vice President
fears that he himself could be assassinated. Atiku wants
the U.S. and the UK to issue clear statements of
opposition to Obasanjo staying in power through any
unconstitutional or extra-constitutional means. He said
his people are in contact with members of the U.S.
Congress and the UK House of Commons to achieve this end.
Atiku has hired political consultants, both British and
American, to support his candidacy, and has a working
group that monitors the domestic print and electronic
media. As a result, he continued, he has a much better
sense of the grassroots than any of his presidential
rivals. President Obasanjo, by contrast, is largely
ignorant of Nigerian public opinion. Nevertheless, Atiku
said, the current U.S. Department of Justice investigation
of his involvement with Congressman Jefferson must be over
by the end of the first quarter of 2006 if he is to remain
a viable candidate. Atiku anticipates the breakup of the
ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the coming
months, and he expects to lead a new party, leaving
Obasanjo with control of only a "shell" of the PDP. End
summary.


2. (C) At his request, Vice President Atiku met with me
alone at the residence the evening of October 1 --
Nigeria's independence day. Earlier, he had represented
President Obasanjo at the National Lecture given by Prof.
Joy Ogwu, and, as the senior Muslim in the government, had
presided over religious ceremonies at the National Mosque.
However, he said he had not been invited to the changing
of the guard ceremony at the Villa and the subsequent
reception hosted by President Obasanjo for the diplomatic
corps.


3. (S) Atiku said that the current political struggle in

Nigeria is between the "military elite" and the "political
elite" (himself, certain governors, members of the
national legislature) for power. However, cutting across
this paradigm is Obasanjo's effort to remain in power past

2007. So, while Obasanjo rules in the "style" of a weak
military dictator and is the product of the "military
elite," his ambitions have alienated his erstwhile
military allies. When I observed that the current
constitution prohibited a third term and that the
President had stated repeatedly that he had no intention
of staying after 2007, Atiku said that Obasanjo's
behavior, especially within the PDP, belies those
sentiments. Atiku said flatly that Obasanjo intends to
manipulate the political process to stay in office. When
I observed that the President's current unpopularity made
his reelection moot, Atiku observed that Nigeria's
presidents are selected by manipulation of the political
process, not by vote totals. The Vice President then
sketched out a scenario by which the President through
carrots and sticks succeeds in winning the support of a
majority of governors due to leave office in 2007, and
thereby losing their immunity to the civil and criminal
prosecution that would certainly follow. These governors,
in turn, would call on their National Assembly patronage
networks to ensure the necessary amendment of the
constitution. If that strategy fails, and Atiku was
confident it would, then Obasanjo might seek to create an
atmosphere of national emergency by exploiting endemic
unrest in the Delta and or the unresolved Bakassi dispute
to justify postponement of the elections. And, Atiku
hinted, there are other, more sinister scenarios. The way
out of all these depressing scenarios, Atiku continued, is
to convince Obasanjo that a third term is impossible.


4. (S) Within Nigeria, Atiku said, the effort to convince
Obasanjo to step down would be initiated by a public
statement opposing a third term signed by Gen. Babangida,
Gen. Buhari, Gen. Aliyu Mohammed, himself, and perhaps
others from the North. Outside Nigeria, Atiku is looking
for a clear statement from the U.S. and UK also opposing
an extra-legal third term. To that end, Atiku continued,
"his people" (presumably his lobbyists and agents) are
working closely with interested MP's in the House of
Commons. He said his people have excellent access to the
Foreign Office, less so to the Prime Minister's office. In
the U.S., he continued, the strategy is similar. His
people are talking to members of Congress, who are
starting to become involved. He referred to a recent
letter from Sen. McCain, and said there will soon be
others.


5. (S) In this context, Atiku continued, he had been
warned by "official" UK sources and by his private
"American consultants" that his life is in danger. He has
asked the Director General (DG) of the State Security
Service for augmentation of his security arrangements. As
yet, there has been no reply. And the DG is a Yoruba from
Obasanjo's village. I observed that the DG reports to
National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed; Atiku said that
the NSA is able to exercise only nominal authority over
the DG. He might, however, have alternative ways of
strengthening the Vice President's security.


6. (C) Turning to the recent arrest of Dokubo Asari and
the ongoing turmoil in the Delta, Atiku said that Asari
should be treated as a criminal matter -- not political.
The President, he continued, had made a mistake by
negotiating with Asari in October, 2004. Now, Asari would
be charged with some form of treason. With respect to a
more fundamental solution to the Delta, Atiku said that
the international community must assist in reducing the
oil bunkering that fuels criminal enterprises. To that
end, he continued, Nigeria needs international assistance
to create a coast guard that could operate in the creeks
as well as in the near-shore waters. He said he was
familiar with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation
(NNPC) MD Kupolokun's "holistic" approach to the Delta,
involving a partnership of the Federal and state
governments, the Niger Delta Development Corporation
(NDDC),the oil companies and foreign donors.


7. (S) Comment: The bottom line is that Atiku wants to
be president in 2007 and believes that Obasanjo had
promised to support him, first in 2003 and then for 2007.
Atiku is not beyond manipulating the system and his
foreign interlocutors to achieve his ambition. He feels
personally betrayed by Obasanjo's failure to support his
candidacy up to now. Yet, despite Atiku's absence from
the Independence Day Changing of the Guard, the two
continue to work together, at least in public. And, it is
Atiku who is in charge, at least nominally, during
Obasanjo's incessant travel. (Atiku believes he was
snubbed by not being invited to the Independence Day
Changing of the Guard; perhaps, but invitations here often
go astray.) Atiku, like many others, is convinced that
Obasanjo, at present, will stop at nothing to remain in
power. However, many of our contacts say that the
military/political establishment also will stop at nothing
to prevent him from doing so -- even if it means violence.
Atiku believes that a clear statement from the U.S. and
the UK opposing a third term might help change Obasanjo's
mind. Atiku has a sophisticated understanding of how the
policy process works in London and Washington, and he said
his agents are pushing for such a statement in both
capitals. He is also asking for a joint meeting with the
British High Commissioner and me, to which we have agreed.


8. (S) Comment, continued: Atiku, Babangida, Buhari and
Marwa are rivals seeking the presidency. Atiku is in some
ways the odd man out -- the only civilian. And Babangida
emphasized to me that the next president of Nigeria must
be from the military to preserve the state (Reftel A),
sentiments with which Buhari and Marwa are likely to
agree. Nevertheless, all four could well unite, if only
momentarily, to oppose a third term for Obasanjo or a
postponement of the change of leadership to be marked by
the 2007 elections.


9. (S) Comment, continued: Obasanjo continues to say
that he will leave office in 2007, a position reiterated
by his close supporters (Reftel D). Atiku argues that
Obasanjo's behavior, especially his manipulation of the
PDP, is a clear indication of his intention to hang on to
power. Like others, Atiku believes that Obasanjo is
increasingly isolated from Nigerian realities and is
consumed with the round of diplomatic activity associated
with his role in the AU and ECOWAS. Atiku and others
believe that Obasanjo does not know or understand how
unpopular and discredited he is throughout Nigeria, that
he actually believes the sycophants around him and other
African heads of state who argue that he is indispensable.
Atiku's concerns about his own possible assassination
recalls similar fears by the Lord Chief Justice when the
Buhari suit challenging the 2003 elections was before the
Supreme Court. Political life in Nigeria is violent in
the best of times, more so in the run up to elections;
Atiku's concerns, like those of Chief Justice Uwais, are
real. Nevertheless, the British High Commissioner here
has no knowledge of the "official British sources" that
allegedly have warned Atiku that his life is in danger.


10. (S) Comment, continued: Atiku's comments about the
likely breakup of the PDP recall those of Babangida
(Reftel A). However, his view that the elections of 2007
are unlikely to reflect the will of the people is
apparently more cynical than that of Babangida, who argues
that the electoral process should be strengthened in
practical and concrete ways. For Atiku, however, who
will be the next President of Nigeria will apparently be
decided without much reference to the electorate. It is
premature to say whether it is Babangida or Atiku who is
the most clear-eyed about the potential for the 2007
elections. However, the experiences of 1999 and 2003 do
lend credibility to Atiku's misgivings. End comment.
CAMPBELL