Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ABUJA1845
2005-09-28 08:08:00
SECRET
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: IBB ON THE FUTURE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS

Tags:  PGOV PREL NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

280808Z Sep 05
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001845 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958, DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: IBB ON THE FUTURE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS


Classified By: John Campbell, Ambassador, Abuja,
Reason(s): 1.5 (b),(d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001845

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958, DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: IBB ON THE FUTURE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS


Classified By: John Campbell, Ambassador, Abuja,
Reason(s): 1.5 (b),(d)


1. (S) Summary: Former military ruler and possible
future presidential candidate Ibrahim Babangida will make
a final decision only in the Spring of 2006 about whether
to run for president. He also expressed interest in
establishing his own political party. He urged the U.S.
and other major donors to play a major role in the 2007
elections, especially the preparation of registration
lists. He described his political philosophy, which
centers on devolution of power from the Federal government
to the states, and called for a "Marshall Plan" to address
the underlying problems of the oil-rich delta. He
reaffirmed his belief that the next President of Nigeria
should have a military background to ensure the survival
of the Nigerian state. His biggest concern: that the
rivalry between President Obasanjo and Vice President
Atiku could lead to violence, the outcome of which would
be unpredictable and potentially profoundly damaging to
the Nigeria body politic. End summary.


2. (U) At his request, former Chief of State Ibrahim
Babangida met with me at the residence on September 27.
He relayed his wish to see me through National Security
Advisor Aliyu Mohammed. He was accompanied by retired Air
Vice Marshal Hamza Abdullahi, who had been the Minister of
the Federal Capital Territory when Babangida was Chief of
State. The Regional Affairs Counselor was also present.
Babangida opened the conversation by expressing his
condolences to the victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.


3. (C) With respect to the presidency in 2007, Babangida
said that he had not made a final decision to declare his
candidacy. Candidates, he continued, are "chosen" by
"like minded men." But, whether he was a candidate or
not, he said he was exploring the possibility of
establishing a new political party which could govern if
it won the presidency, serve as a loyal opposition if it
lost. When pressed, as to whom he would support if he
chose not to run, Babangida said that his candidate must
be "a like minded friend" with a military background and
international stature, someone "like" Aliyu Mohammed. (In
passing, he confirmed that he had been one of Obasanjo's

principal kingmakers in 1999.) However, he avoided saying
specifically that the National Security Advisor would be
his candidate, should he himself not run. He added that
his candidate must not be afraid of the press, which he
characterized as "irresponsible."


4. (S) Babangida said it was important to be "fair" to
President Obasanjo and, in essence, take at face value the
latter's statements that he will leave office at the end
of his term in 2007. It would be very difficult,
Babangida continued, to amend the constitution or
otherwise make legally possible an Obasanjo third term.
Babangida said that he, personally, believed in the
presidential two-term limit. Any exception, he continued,
could be contemplated only if the incumbent were an
unqualified success. And President Obasanjo is deeply
unpopular, as are the people around him. Vice President
Atiku, he continued, had handled his own candidacy for the
presidency poorly. Atiku acted as though the PDP
nomination was his for the asking, and his increasingly
public feud with the President was unseemly as they were
part of the same administration. As Vice President, Atiku
owned his undivided loyalty to the President. During a
private aside with me at the close of the meeting,
Babangida expressed concern that the struggle over the PDP
between Obasanjo and Atiku could lead to violence. He
quoted the President as saying that violence would be met
with violence. But, Babangida said, once violence is
unleashed, the consequences are unpredictable and have the
potential for profoundly damaging Nigeria.


5. (C) If he were to be a candidate for President,
Babangida said he would campaign in favor of a "Marshall
Plan" for the Delta. The root causes of instability in
that region, he continued, are poverty and under
development. He also said that he favors devolving
further powers from the Federal government to the states,
in education, for example. He went on to say that in a
country as diverse as Nigeria, there was no reason why all
the states needed the same institutions of government.
With respect to the conduct of the 2007 elections, he
urged the U.S. and other donors to take an active role,
especially in the preparation of voter registration roles.
He also argued that the results of the polling should be
released by each local government area (LGA),rather than
by any organ of the Federal government, to reduce
tampering with the results. He acknowledged the
importance of the 2007 elections to restoring public
confidence in the democratic process in Nigeria.


6. (S) Comment: While I had met him several times when
he was chief of state, this was my first meeting with
Babangida since my return to Nigeria. He was articulate
and urbane, and betrayed no appearance of aging. Though
he was coy about his own presidential intentions, Hamza
Abdullahi said flatly that Babangida will run. If this is
correct, it could explain Babangida's reluctance to
endorse on the spot the candidacy of Aliyu Mohammed. The
posters throughout the country supporting his candidacy
are solely the work of his "friends"--not him, Babangida
said. However, nearly all observers think that he has
built up the biggest campaign war chest of any of the
contenders. His concern that the rivalry between Obasanjo
and Atiku risks violence was striking--and delivering that
warning appears to have been the principal purpose of the
visit. Striking, too, was his continuing to see the
military as the guarantor of the Nigerian state, and,
hence, that the next President must have a military
background. (Of all the declared presidential candidates,
only Vice President Atiku does not.) He made all the
right responses to my points about the need for the rule
of law and transparency in elections. Though he was
willing to talk about policy, e.g., the delta "Marshall
Plan", devolution of more power to the states and the
importance of Nigeria's international role, he appeared
most interested in talking about the possibilities of a
new political party. He would not allow himself to be
drawn out on the problems of the North. Indeed,
throughout our particular conversation, at least,
Babangida showed remarkably little "fire in the belly" for
actually fighting for the Presidency. End comment.
CAMPBELL