NIGERIA'S SOBERING SOCIAL INDICATORS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001829

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAID SOCI TBIO PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA'S SOBERING SOCIAL INDICATORS

REF: (A) ABUJA 1384 (B) ABUJA 1479


1. (SBU) Summary: USAID provided technical assistance to
analyze and publish data from Nigeria's 2003 Demographic and
Health survey. The data analysis from that survey
demonstrates two startling facts. In many areas, Nigeria
has social indicators significantly worse than its poorer
neighbors, and within Nigeria there are large disparities
between the South and the North, where life is particularly
harsh. For example, Nigeria has had the highest rate of
stunting due to malnutrition of any country in West Africa.
Internally, the percentage of population living in poverty
and under-five mortality are often double or more in
northern Nigerian states versus southern Nigerian states.
Many indicators have been worsening rather than improving
over time. When given this data, President Obasanjo used it
as the basis for charging Northern governors to improve
performance in public social services (reftels). Taken
together this data shows serious stresses and fault lines
that Nigeria faces. It provides a backdrop to potential
sources of radicalization and unrest in the North. Further,
it shows the extreme vulnerability of the North to drought,
food shortages and migration and population pressure. End
Summary.

Mining the Data
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2. (U) USAID provided technical assistance to conduct,
analyze and publish data from Nigeria's 2003 Demographic and
Health survey and 2004 Education survey. The 2003 survey
interviewed a nationally representative sample of 7,260
women and 2,346 men. It looked household composition,
fertility, infant and child mortality, key diseases and
feeding practices and nutritional status. The education
survey covered a nationally representative sample of 4,268
households and in addition to education, also looked at
children's eating patterns and nutritional status. The
basic results show that according to standard social
indicators, the standard of living and quality of life in
Nigeria is very poor. Over the past 15 years things have
not improved, and in some cases are worse.

Two Grim Trends
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3. (U) Perhaps most startling is the extent to which in
some key social indicators, Nigeria lags behind its even
poorer neighbors. Even given its limited resources, Nigeria
should be performing better. Equally disturbing is the
often stark disparity between conditions in southern
Nigerian states, which are not especially good, and northern
Nigerian states where they are frankly awful. A clear
example of this is under-five mortality. Nigeria's under-
five morality has increased from 192 death per 1000 live
births in 1990 to a national average of 217/1000 in 2003.
One in five children dies before reaching age five.
Nigeria's average is worse Chad's, worse than Mauritania's
and Guinea Bissau's, and more than double the rate in Ghana.
Within Nigeria the rate ranges from 103/1000 in the South
East to more than double that at 269/1000 in the North West,
a rate exceeded only in war-torn Sierra Leone.


4. (U) A key factor in Nigeria's poor performance in child
mortality is the lack of immunization. In 1990, only 18.3%
of children of were completely immunized. By 2003 that
already abysmal performance had fallen to 12.4% of children,
by far the worst performance of all countries in West Africa
where comparable figures are available. Mali, the next
lowest managed 21.7%. Once again within Nigeria regional
disparities are great. While the top performing South East
immunized 44.6% of children, that quickly drops to 12.4% in
North Central, 6% in the North East and only 3.7% in the
North West region. The immunization rates are significant
because combined with the under five mortality rates, they
demonstrate the impact of a broken public health
infrastructure.


5. (U) A key measure of child nutrition and thus living
standards is the level of stunting due to malnutrition in
children under five. This is an area where Nigeria has
improved its performance, from 43% of children in 1990 to
38% in 2003. Nonetheless, that is abysmal. At 43%, Nigeria
had the worst performance of any country in West Africa
exceeding even Niger and Liberia and at 38% is exceeded only
by those two countries and matches Mali. Once again
stunting rates in the South East and South South are in line
with rates in regional leaders at 19-20%, while in the North
West, more than half of children are stunted--55.3%.

Poverty
--------------

6.(U) Poverty figures are not standardized. Using a
definition of the percentage of population living under $1
per day, gives a number higher that used by Nigeria, which
is the percent of population living on less than two-thirds
annual per capita income. With annual per capita income at
about $340 (versus about $1000 in 1980 in constant dollars),
the Nigerian poverty line is set at $185 annual income.
Using the $1/day standard some northern states have poverty
rates over 90%, but even using the lower poverty line, three
states have poverty rates from 87-89%. The ten poorest
states are all in the North. While regional differences are
stark, however, with the South East average poverty rate
being 37.4% versus 76.1% in the North West, the regional
figures disguise considerable disparity at the state level.
For example, the lowest rate in the South East is 25.8%
while the highest is 58.5%. In the North West the highest
rate is 89.2%, while the lowest is 40.4%. Lagos checks in
with a mere 11.8%. In short, the disparity between rural
areas and urban areas is even stronger than North-South
disparities, but the North overall tends to be more rural.

Fertility
--------------


7. (U) Nigeria continues to have a high fertility rate,
with women in Nigeria in 2003 having an average of 5.7
children, and desiring an average of six children. (Men
want nine children.) This translates into a population
growth rate estimated at about 2.9%, one of the highest in
the world.

Women
--------------


8. (U) In looking at the status of women, often a key
indicator for prospects for future improvement, Nigeria does
not fare so badly, overall, but underlying the national
averages is a troubling situation in the North. With a
48.2% rate of female literacy, Nigeria does moderately well
by regional standards, exceeded only by Ghana and Cameroon.
Internally however, the South of the country boasts female
literacy in the 70-80% range, while the North has female
literacy in the 20-26% range. Median marriage ages which
are 19-21 in the South are only 14-15 in the North. The
national average of 16.6 has fallen from 16.9 in 1990. The
figures point to continued future divergence in the well-
being of children in the North and South.


9. (SBU) Comment: When given these data, President Obasanjo
used it as the basis for charging Northern governors to
improve performance in public social services (reftels).
Taken together the data show some of the serious stresses
and fault lines that Nigeria faces. The divide between
North and South is not based on religion and culture alone.
As hard as life is in southern Nigeria, it is much harsher
in the North. The struggle over the division of oil
revenues is between have-nots and the have-still-lesses.
The social indicators of the North depict a population that
is extremely stretched even by the standards of a harsh
region. It is with this backdrop in mind that we must look
at potential sources of radicalization and unrest in the
North. Further, it shows the extreme vulnerability of the
North, which is essentially part of the Sahel region, to
potential crises such as drought, food shortages, and
migration and population pressure.

CAMPBELL