Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ABUJA1610
2005-08-30 08:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

THE STATE OF HIV/AIDS IN NIGERIA AS OF JUNE 2005

Tags:  KHIV SOCI TBIO ECON PREL PGOV NI HIV AIDS 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001610 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KHIV SOCI TBIO ECON PREL PGOV NI HIV AIDS
SUBJECT: THE STATE OF HIV/AIDS IN NIGERIA AS OF JUNE 2005

REF: ABUJA 209

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001610

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KHIV SOCI TBIO ECON PREL PGOV NI HIV AIDS
SUBJECT: THE STATE OF HIV/AIDS IN NIGERIA AS OF JUNE 2005

REF: ABUJA 209


1. Summary: This cable evaluates broadly HIV/AIDS' impact
on Nigerians and their institutions. Roughly 4 million
(UNAIDS, 2003) of the nation's 130 million people (PRB,
2002) are infected with HIV/AIDS, reflecting a national
HIV/AIDS infection rate of 5 percent (NPS, 2003). Nigeria
had at least 2.4 million HIV-positive workers in 2003. (ILO,
2004) Although senior Nigerian officials are committed to
combating HIV/AIDS, the sense of urgency to do something
about it diminishes increasingly down the Nigerian
bureaucratic ladder. HIV/AIDS has the potential to further
destabilize Nigeria, where about 85 million Nigerians try to
survive on less than USD 1 per day. Most of Nigeria's
economic activity occurs in the informal sector, which does
not provide health and death benefits, so HIV/AIDS harms the
poorest Nigerians disproportionately. Because the GON
nonetheless recognizes the threat and values its partnership
with the United States, our common effort to combat HIV/AIDS
is strengthening our bilateral relationship. End summary.


2. This is the second of Embassy Abuja's twice-yearly cables
on the effects of HIV/AIDS on Nigerians and the Nigerian
economy. This cable seeks to evaluate broadly HIV/AIDS'
impact on Nigeria's institutions and society. Statistics on
HIV and AIDS in Nigeria are fragmentary and not always up to
date. Nigeria's National HIV Sero-Prevalence Survey
estimated the national rate of HIV/AIDS infection in 2003 to
be 5 percent (NPS, 2003). This 5-percent infection rate
means roughly 4 million adults aged 15-49 (UNAIDS, 2003) of
Nigeria's approximately 130 million citizens and residents
(Population Reference Bureau, 2002) have HIV or AIDS. In
2003, 310,000 Nigerian adults and children died of AIDS.
(IMF, "The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS," Nov. 2004) Nigeria
then had 7 million orphans - who comprised 10.1 percent of
all its children - and that same year, it had 1.8 million
AIDS orphans. (IMF, Nov. 2004) Because of the increase of
HIV and AIDS, UNICEF predicts Nigeria's orphans will
increase rapidly to 8.2 million by 2010. (UNICEF, 2005)



3. Nigeria's youth bulge - 63 percent of its population is
under age 25 (Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, 2003) -
makes the threat of HIV/AIDS very significant. The
country's highest prevalence of HIV, 5.6 percent, is found
among its 20 to 24 age group. (NPS, 2003) Unless there is
sustained action to target and protect this age group, a
significantly larger wave of HIV/AIDS likely will result.
In May 2005, Nigeria launched a new drive to improve the
country's blood-bank system and help stem the spread of HIV
through contaminated blood. At that time, the director of
the U.S. charity Safe Blood for Africa said roughly 10
percent of 1 million samples of blood tested in Nigeria were
contaminated with HIV. (UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, 2005)


4. In terms of life expectancy, a Nigerian child born today
can expect to live 49 years. (DHS, 2003) The IMF estimates
that deaths of adults (ages 15 to 49) excluding AIDS will
make up 17 percent of all deaths in Nigeria in 2005; the
inclusion of Nigerian adults' deaths from AIDS will boost
this figure to 27 percent of all deaths nationally. (IMF,
Nov. 2004) In demonstrating how harsh daily life is in
Nigeria, the International Labor Organization (ILO)
estimated in 2004 (based on a projected 2005 population of
130 million) that fewer than 4.1 million of these persons
would live to at least age 65 by this year. (ILO, "HIV/AIDS
and Work," 2004) (Comment: This ILO population projection
is about 10 million shy of our current estimate, which is
based on data compiled by the Population Reference Bureau.
End comment.)


5. By the end of 2003, Nigeria had at least 2.4 million HIV-
positive people aged 15 to 64 in its labor force - with
"labor force" defined as all persons who are economically
active, including all persons of working age who are in paid
employment, gainful self-employment, or unemployed but
available for and seeking work. (ILO, 2004) The ILO
estimates that Nigerians who will have died from AIDS during
1995 to 2005 will equal 3 percent of the cumulative total of
Nigeria's labor force during that decade. (ILO, 2004)
Because most of Nigeria's economic activity occurs in the
informal sector, which does not provide health and death
benefits, HIV/AIDS harms the poorest Nigerians
disproportionately in economic terms.


6. HIV/AIDS has the potential to further destabilize
Nigeria, where the governmental and services infrastructures
already have broken down and where about 85 million
Nigerians try to survive on less than USD 1 per day.
HIV/AIDS also poses a significant threat particularly to
Nigeria's urban elite, who because of their mobility and
behavior are more likely to be infected. The urban elite
also are relatively young, in their economic prime, and
likely better educated than the average Nigerian. The
consequences of these shortened lives and careers include
fewer persons becoming leaders in Nigeria's society and
economy, declining productivity, greater costs of
production, and decreased household income and opportunities
for education. (IMF, Nov. 2004) While it is difficult to
quantify precisely HIV/AIDS' economic cost to Nigeria, the
disease's effects include declines in Nigerian society's
human capital and physical capital. As spending is shifted
toward HIV/AIDS-related activities, aggregate saving is
likely to fall. This leaves fewer resources for investment
as higher production costs and deteriorating economic
prospects make investing in Nigeria less attractive. (IMF,
Nov. 2004)


7. Senior Government of Nigeria (GON) officials are
realistic about the threat HIV/AIDS poses. President
Obasanjo personally lent his support by speaking on World
AIDS Day at the launch of the (U.S.) President's Emergency
Plan for AIDS Relief, and there is strong Nigerian public
support for the Emergency Plan. Also, there is close
coordination between the GON Ministries of Health and
Defense and the U.S. Mission, including officials at USAID,
the Department of Defense, and the Centers for Disease
Control. In addition, U.S. Ambassador Campbell and
Nigeria's minister of health co-chair a biweekly steering
committee on the issue of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria, while the
Nigerian minister of state for defense has made HIV/AIDS
prevention one of his priorities. The Nigerian military's
HIV prevalence rate is unknown but is estimated to be
between 5 and 10 percent, according to several small studies
conducted in recent years. All potential recruits are
tested for HIV before being accepted for service, but unlike
the U.S. armed forces, the Nigerian military does not
continue mandatory in-service HIV testing for its personnel.
The Nigerian military is presently working on instituting
anonymous mass testing of the military. The Nigerian Air
Force has mandatory HIV testing only for air crew members on
flight status. All military personnel seeking to serve
outside Nigeria on peacekeeping operations must be tested
for HIV, both before and after their deployment - but these
test results generally are unavailable even to the Nigerian
military's medical commands and to its Armed Forces Program
on AIDS Control.


8. Despite this commendable commitment at the senior level
of the GON to combating HIV/AIDS in Nigeria, government
personnel's awareness of the extent of this disease
diminishes increasingly down the Nigerian bureaucratic
ladder. Nigerian officials occasionally express complacency
over Nigeria's success in capping the nation's infection
rate at "only" 5 percent - especially in comparison to other
African countries' significantly higher rates. Moreover,
AIDS' serious threat to Nigeria is relatively abstract to
the typical Nigerian in the street. Many of Nigeria's
institutions and a large percentage of Nigerian society
still engage in widespread denial of the damage wreaked by
the disease, in large part because of HIV/AIDS' stigma in
Nigerian society. Unlike in Uganda, where AIDS has been
widespread, only 25 percent of Nigerians report knowing
someone who has AIDS or who died from it. (Nigeria National
HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey, 2003) Partly
because Nigeria has no network of morgues, Nigerians facing
death from AIDS generally leave the city and return to their
village. These already weakened AIDS sufferers usually die
first from malaria or tuberculosis (TB) and, most important,
often are believed to have died from malaria or TB, not
AIDS.


9. In fiscal year (FY) 2005, U.S. Government (USG) funding
in Nigeria for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS
Relief totaled nearly $90 million. Under the Office of the
U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator and Ambassador Campbell, five
USG agencies work collaboratively, including with Nigerian
and international entities, to implement the Emergency Plan
through sustainable prevention, care, and treatment
programs. As of June 2005, the USG directly supported
12,852 individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the
nine focus states of Anambra, Borno, Cross-River, Edo, Kano,
Lagos, Oyo, Plateau, and the Federal Capital Territory.
Also as of June 2005, the USG was rapidly increasing the ART
services its partners offer to meet its target of having
36,222 individuals on ART by March 2006. Currently, more
than 400 USG-supported HIV-prevention programs target at-
risk individuals. In the first half of FY 2005,
approximately 29,350 patients received basic health care and
support at 40 USG-sponsored service outlets. Finally, more
than 30,000 clients have received counseling and testing in
facilities supported by the Emergency Plan.


10. The GON fully recognizes the threat of HIV/AIDS. It
values its partnership with the United States and U.S.
cooperation on the HIV/AIDS issue. Our partnership in
combating HIV/AIDS is strengthening our bilateral
relationship.


11. This cable was reviewed by Embassy Abuja's Economic
Section, its Office of Defense Cooperation, and by USAID
Abuja.

CAMPBELL