NIGER DELTA REMAINS TENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001271

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2010
TAGS: PGOV NI EPET SOCI DELTAVIOLENCE
SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA REMAINS TENSE

REF: A. ABUJA 1715

B. ABUJA 2004

C. LAGOS 507

D. LAGOS 945

E. LAGOS 1073

F. LAGOS 1107

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell per 1.4 b and d


1. (SBU) Summary: In a July 6 meeting, NGO Director and
Obasanjo associate, Judith Asuni, told the Ambassador
tensions remain high in the Niger Delta. Small arms
proliferation, cult/gang violence, and oil bunkering are all
rampant, she said. The Peace and Security Strategy (PASS),a
joint government-NGO initiative begun last year to foster
greater stability in the region, was now fully articulated
and petroleum presidential adviser (cum Minister) Edmund
Dakuro recently had circulated the strategy in Western
capitals, including the U.S. However, actual implementation
of the PASS was lagging, Asuni said. The Ambassador and
Asuni concurred that President Obasanjo must keep a close eye
on the region and stay engaged. Nigeria's economic reforms,
of which the President is justifiably proud, are not
sustainable without a stable, productive Niger Delta region.
End Summary.

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Niger Delta Ever Tense
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2. (C) American citizen (AMCIT) Judith Asuni has lived in
Nigeria for more than 30 years and is a long-time Mission
contact. Asuni's NGO, Academic Associates Peace Works
(AAPW),focuses on conflict resolution, early warning
systems, and youth reintegration. Asuni told Ambassador the
Delta region remains fragile and tensions are high. Cults
and gangs continue to splinter, proliferate, and re-arm.
Asuni stated that by failing to provide demobilized youth
with employment and training opportunities, the Rivers State
government had reneged on the deal rival militias and federal
government struck last year which ended a particularly
intense round of violence in Port Harcourt. This violence
which pitted the two main militias in the area -- Dokubo
Asari's Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) and
Ateke Tom's Niger Delta Vigilante Group (NDVG) -- against
each other, had resulted in dozens of deaths and had caused
hundreds to be displaced from their homes (refs A and B).
Asuni claimed that contrary to the provisions of the PASS,
Rivers State governor Odili had only provided sporadic
employment/training opportunities to disarmed youth. She
asserted that the governor "wanted to do the right thing,"
but is often thrown off course by "those around him."


3. (C) The gun-buy-back program, another element of the
PASS, had also failed to achieve intended results. Gang
members often turned in dilapidated, non-serviceable weapons.
However, the government did not reduce its already overly
inflated payback based on weapon condition. Gang members
were thus able to purchase two weapons for every one
surrendered, Asuni asserted. Asuni confirmed rumors that
Odili's chief-of-staff was complicit in corrupting the
gun-buy-back program (ref C). She said she had confronted
the governor about this issues, but he has "stood by his
man." Lastly Asuni said serial numbers of some surrendered
weapons have been traced to South Africa. The Ambassador
counseled that if true, the GON should convey all relevant
information to the GoSA so that South African authorities
could hold accountable illegal gun traders, and more
importantly, help prevent future shipments.

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Obasanjo Must Stay Engaged
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4. (SBU) The Ambassador elicited Asuni's vies on how to
increase stability in the Delta region. While not offering
specific suggestions, Asuni said the president's sustained
attention and engagement were critical. The Ambassador
concurred. Nigeria's economic reforms, he said, and her
vision for the future in terms of poverty alleviation and
infrastructure development, are predicated upon the country
maintaining a certain level of crude oil production.


5. (SBU) Energy companies can and do adjust to
peculiarities in the working environment, shifting operations
off-shore in response to community unrest, for example.
However, these modifications come at a cost. It is
dramatically more expensive to produce oil off shore, than it
is on-shore. Similarly, energy companies incur enormous
insurance premiums working in environments as risk-filled as
the Niger Delta.


6. (SBU) The Ambassador said one of his biggest worries is
that at some point the cost-benefit ratio might no longer
tilt in Nigeria's favor, leading energy companies to
significantly reduce operations here. The Ambassador and
Asuni agreed that each would emphasize with the President the
need for his active, sustained involvement on Niger Delta
issues.

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Comment
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7. (SBU) As the euphoria of debt relief and the favorable
supreme court decision recedes, Obasanjo will need to
re-focus on the Niger Delta region. Contacts Mission-wide
are reporting heightened concerns and apprehension in the
region. Over the past few weeks and months, Port Harcourt
has witnessed a slew of armed robberies and a spectacular
prison riot, staged to break free a feared militia leader
(ref C). In addition, there have been at least two oil
installation take-overs and/or hostage takings in the past
several weeks. The fist incident which occurred in Bayelsa
state, ended peacefully when community leaders released the
two German expatriates they had held hostage for four days
(ref C). The second incident, in Billie, Rivers State is
still on-going. Shell Petroleum Development Corporation was
forced to shut down a minor flow station in order to prevent
an imminent take-over. SPDC confirmed that as much as 40,000
bpd have been disrupted as a result of this action (ref F).


8. (SBU) Lastly, cults, gangs, and "youth-groups" have
engaged in a fair amount of saber-rattling in association
with the South-South's demand for increased resource control
at the stalled National Political Reform Conference (NPRC)
(ref E). NDPVF leader Asari has vowed to shut down oil
installations if the region's demands are not met. Other
groups, with less of a proven track record than the NDPVF,
have issued similar threats. (Note: The NPRC disbanded July
11 when delegates were unable to reach consensus on resource
control and presidential tenure. See Septel).


9. (SBU) Any one or even two of these factors, would
constitute traditional fare for the rough-and-tumble Niger
Delta region. However, the accumulated impact, alongside the
ever present potential for political violence as the nation
moves closer to the 2007 elections, has people jittery. The
president appears to have given Dakuro the lead on Niger
Delta stability and implementation of the PASS. It remains
to be seen whether these latest initiatives will have any
appreciable impact on this Nigeria's most knotty problem.

CAMPBELL