JUNE 12 ANNIVERSARY UNITES NIGERIAN OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001155

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2015
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC NI
SUBJECT: JUNE 12 ANNIVERSARY UNITES NIGERIAN OPPOSITION
GROUPS

REF: ABUJA 972

Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Despite a torrential rainstorm in Lagos on June 12,
prominent opposition politicians and human rights activists
gathered to mark the twelfth anniversary of the annulment of
the 1993 presidential elections won by Chief MKO Abiola,
politician and business icon who later died in detention in

1998. ANPP 2003 presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari met
with top politicians from the Southwest and Southeast and
addressed a rally in the Lagos suburb of Magodo. The group
paid a solidarity visit to Abiola's family, where they
decried the annulment of the 1993 elections. This event
could signal a turning point in the relationship between
opposition leaders of the Southwest, Southeast, and North,
and could redefine the political landscape ahead of the 2007
elections.

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THE COMING TOGETHER OF STRANGE BED FELLOWS
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2. (U) Twelve years after Chief MKO Abiola's election was
annulled by then-military head of state Ibrahim Babangida
(IBB),and seven years after Abiola's death, his memory was
again celebrated on Sunday, June 12. Pro-democracy activists
defied a day-long heavy downpour across the South to mark the
day many Nigerians consider the true Democracy Day (reftel).
The celebrations took place in many parts of the Southwest,
including Lagos. In a visit that took on the atmosphere of a
campaign stop, Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of
the All Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP) brought progressives
and conservatives together to honor Abiola: the winning
candidate in elections widely viewed as the "freest elections
in Nigeria's history." Celebrations also took place in
North-Central Kaduna, although much smaller and without the
big names in attendance.


3. (U) In Lagos, many simultaneous events occurred. At
Yaba, prominent politicians under the auspices of United
Action for Democracy (UAD) organized rallies at Tai Solarin
Square while the Lagos State chapter of the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) held a press briefing at Ikeja to mark
the event. In the nearby Excellence Hotel, Ogba, the Oodua
Peoples Congress (OPC),a pan-Yoruba tribal group, held a
symposium.


4. (U) Meanwhile, Buhari led a coalition of June 12
exponents in addressing the crowd at Magodo. In his speech,
Buhari told the crowd that the annulment of Chief Abiola's
election in 1993 was a "crime against the wishes of the
people." He took a swipe at "the deceitful economic policies
of the Obasanjo administration," condemning the soaring
corruption, decay of infrastructure, insecurity, and
electoral malpractices. He warned that "those who annulled
the June 12, 1993, elections are still around." Referring to
the 2003 elections, he stated that in Nigerian math classes,
students are being taught that "6-1-2 is equal to 4-1-9," a
reference to the dates of the 1993 and 2003 elections.
(Note: "4-1-9" is the section of the criminal code dealing
with advance fee fraud. End Note.)

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SPEAKERS KNOCK OBASANJO
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5. (SBU) Buhari argued that the lessons of the June 12, 1993
elections are that, contrary to the belief of the elites,
"ethnicity and religion are only weapons in the hands of
extremists, liars, and unpatriotic elements that use them for
selfish goals." He said that the elites "balkanize the
country by building cleavages of hatred among groups. They
divide ethnic groups into sub-cultural bases and their
religion into sects, thus raising tension and making the
country vulnerable to crisis." Buhari also condemned the
apparent ineffectiveness of the National Assembly, saying
"the legislature we have under this system can be described
as a rubber stamp or even an extension of the executive."
Perhaps emboldened by the positive crowd reaction, he
declared the ruling PDP "dead," saying "all we need is to
unite and organize a burial party."


6. (U) Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu, an Abiola aide in
1993, said that June 12 represents transparency,
accountability, and true federalism. He noted that June 12
represented a struggle between progressive forces and
reactionaries, and urged Nigerians to resist the "imperialist
rule in Abuja." He admonished the federal government for
disobeying court verdicts pointing out that there would be no
genuine democracy without the rule of law. In his speech,
Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi (Lagos West) regretted that
Obasanjo, the greatest beneficiary of the June 12 struggle,
had done nothing to immortalize Abiola, the symbol of that
struggle.


7. (U) Long-time Igbo leader Dim Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, All
Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) presidential candidate in
2003, and former Information Minister and ANPP leader Chief
John Nnia Nwodo were billed to lead the Southeastern
delegation to the event, but did not arrive on time. The
airports had been closed due to the heavy rains and two
airline accidents earlier in the day, one at Lagos, the other
at Jos. They sent messages via their cell phones and
expressed their support for the democratic struggle.

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BUHARI VISITS ABIOLA'S FAMILY
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8. (C) Buhari paid a visit to the Abiola family, where he
was warmly received. The public relations aspect of the
visit was not lost on anyone, and his attention to the June
12 anniversary was appreciated by the family and assembled
well-wishers. According to sources, Buhari also had a
separate meeting with the bigwigs of the Alliance for
Democracy (AD),one of the four major parties in Nigeria.
Buhari's visit served to reopen communication between Tinubu,
the only sitting AD governor, and his colleagues who were put
out of office by the PDP in the flawed 2003 elections. The
fence-mending extended to the OPC and factions of another
pan-Yoruba group, Afenifere. One of Buhari's aides told
PolOff that he had listened to some of the AD politicians'
conversations while the group was assembled. He said he
reported to Buhari that "much of the talk sounded like
coup-plotting." According to the aide, Buhari replied,
"Since that is what (Obasanjo) wants, so be it. Let them
talk."

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"PRETENDERS" IN GOVERNMENT
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9. (SBU) At the Lagos Resource Center in Victoria Island,
Father George Ehusani coordinated a symposium for prominent
journalists, pro-democracy activists, and opposition
politicians, the group chose as its theme, "Challenges of
Democracy, 12 Years After June 1993 Presidential Election."
Some of the speakers suggested that the current people in
power were "pretenders to the throne" and "not the real June
12 sympathizers." Chief Frank Ovie-Kokori, former
Secretary-General of the oil and gas workers' union, summed

SIPDIS
up the mood of the participants: "Those who came into power
in 1999 were people who were not ready for governance."


10. (U) In Abeokuta, Ogun State, Abiola's home town,
elements of the state government joined the pro-democracy
groups to celebrate the day. Jamiu Abiola, one of the late
politician's sons, said he had heard of the rumored
presidential ambition of Babangida, the architect of the 1993
annulment. He warned Babangida against contesting in 2007:
"if you insist on running, the handwriting is already on the
wall."

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COMMENT
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11. (C) Buhari's visit to the Southwest served to reconcile
competing factions among the political opposition and
strengthen his standing in the region least disposed to his
political activities. The new friends also cooperated in
attending a June 25 conference in London together, where it
appears that the Buhari camp is maintaining its efforts to
galvanize an opposition to what many Nigerians view as
Obasanjo's "autocratic and illegal governance."
CAMPBELL