REGIME STABILITY QUESTIONED BY RECENT INCIDENTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001024

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: REGIME STABILITY QUESTIONED BY RECENT INCIDENTS

REF: 04 ABUJA 1885

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (B & D).


1. (S) SUMMARY: Joseph Wayas, the chairman of the
political committee at the National Conference on Political
Reform (Confab),avoided an apparent assassination attempt on
June 3 and has been absent from the Confab since the
incident. President Obasanjo apparently collapsed twice on
June 7, sparking rumors of his death and vehement denials
from the GON. These two events highlight continuing concerns
about security throughout the country.


2. (C) Joseph Wayas, Chairman of the Political Committee at
the National Conference on Political Reform (Confab),avoided
an apparent assassination attempt on June 3 when he did not
return to his office after the Confab closed. According to
his personal assistant, a "group" of thugs forced their way
into his office shortly before he was due to return. One of
Wayas' friends told Poloff that the group had apparently been
observing Wayas for over a week and that Wayas decided at the
last minute to return to his residence rather than stopping
at his office. The gang was characterized as "assassins" by
his PA.


3. (C) Wayas has not attended the Confab since the incident
and has been avoiding many of its members. According to one,
the Political Committee has been looking for him this week to
iron out their recommendations to the Confab before it closes
late this month.


3. (C) COMMENT: Wayas, a former Senate President, has been
critical of the Confab of late, especially on the handling of
the draft constitution that appeared late during term of the
conference. This draft, attributed to President Obasanjo and
his advisers Professor Jerry Gana and Ojo Maduekwe, is
believed to represent Obasanjo's preferred constitution
moving towards the 2007 elections. Standing up to the PDP
has proved dangerous in the past (reftel) and Wayas'
avoidance of the conference is believed to be an indication
of his concern about his own health. END COMMENT.


4. (S) In an unrelated incident, rumors of the death of
President Obasanjo swirled through the country on June 7.
Beginning before daybreak, the word spread from North to
South by the end of the day. The concern about his health
was apparently triggered by two incidents the same day.
According to Obasanjo's steward, Obasanjo collapsed in the
early morning hours. At about the same time, according to a
presidential orderly, an emergency call came from the
Presidential Villa to the State House Clinic for "oxygen" and
an ambulance. The steward claims that Obasanjo collapsed
again at about 1300 hrs local just before a meeting with the
Kogi State Governor. This time, the steward says that they
revived him one time but he was unable to stand. He then
collapsed and, according to another source, was unconscious
for about two hours.


5. (C) According to one of the Kogi Governor's aides, the
group never met with Obasanjo throughout the day, but was
hopeful of meeting today. A foreign diplomat claims that he
met with Obasanjo on June 8 and that he "appeared well." The
diplomat also reported that Obasanjo is leaving for London
almost immediately for "consultations and speeches,"
coincidentally the location of his preferred private
physician.


6. (C) Presidential spokesperson Remi Oyo was on network
television and radio on the evening of June 7 stating that
the President was in good health and had kept all his
appointments for the day. According to one contact who saw
the broadcast, she appeared "nervous or shaken" and did not
give her usual "composed delivery." The print media on June
8 was plastered with several articles denying the "vicious
rumor of the President's ill-health" and providing
testimonials of the President's "great stamina."


7. (S) COMMENT: It appears that something happened to
Obasanjo on June 7 and that he actually did collapse once, if
not twice. A similar story made the rounds in December, when
many claimed that he collapsed unconscious at his Otta Farm
in Ogun State. These two incidents indicate that Obasanjo,
who claims to be 68 but many think is closer to 75 years old,
may have a health problem, although we have no indication
what ailment it might be. The speed of the rumors, and the
attack on Wayas highlights a different, perhaps more serious
issue: regime fragility. Continued physical and personal
attacks on Obasanjo's opponents and the lack of security
throughout the country point to the dangers present to the
GON in the near future. The speed with which the rumors of
his death (and the glee they generated in some quarters) only
reinforces the fact that at least some in Nigeria stand to
gain from the demise of Obasanjo and the regime. END
COMMENT.
CAMPBELL