UAE ANNOUNCES INDIRECT ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 004905

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/PPD, AND NEA/ARPI
STATE ALSO FOR PA, R, IIP, AND DRL
LONDON FOR ELIZABETH MCKUNE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2010
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KPAL PTER IZ AE
SUBJECT: UAE ANNOUNCES INDIRECT ELECTIONS

REF: A. ABU DHABI 1002

B. ABU DHABI 2173

C. ABU DHABI 3043

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al
Nahyan announced December 1 that indirect elections will be
held for half of the Federal National Council (FNC),with the
other half being appointed. This move had been anticipated,
and in fact promised by UAE Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamdan bin Zayed
during his visit with the Secretary in August. The timetable
for the elections is not yet known, although unnamed UAE
officials have told the press that the process of choosing
the new council would start early next year. The Supreme
Ruling Council, comprising the seven rulers of the seven
semi-autonomous emirates, is expected to convene on December
3, presumably about this and other internal developments.


2. (C) Summary continued: The UAE has lagged behind other
countries in the region that have adopted political reforms,
including elections. President Khalifa made no mention of
whether women would be allowed to participate in the election
process, although it is widely expected that this will be the
case. The press reported unanimous official and public
approval of the announcement, which comes on the 34th
anniversary of the UAE's independence. Although not as
dramatic a move as general elections, one newspaper editor
called this "half election" a gradual step toward broadening
the political participation of the citizenry. In addition to
announcing the FNC elections, President Khalifa used his
National Day remarks to reiterate the UAE's support for Iraq
and the Palestinians, and its condemnation of terrorism. End
Summary.


3. (U) On December 1, President Khalifa announced that the
country's principal consultative body )- the FNC )- would
be partly elected for the first time in its history. These
would not be general elections. Instead, each of the rulers
will appoint local council members who will in turn elect
half of the FNC membership for their respective emirates. No
announcement has been made yet on the timeline for the
elections, although unnamed UAE officials quoted in the press
say that the process would get under way in a few months.
The "Gulf News" reported that the Presidential Court will
issue a by-law later regarding the election process. The
term of the FNC is two years. No announcement has been made
about the start of the next two-year session.


4. (U) The FNC is a consultative body and all federal draft
laws and decrees must go through it before they are
officially adopted by the Supreme Ruling Council. (Draft
legislation is prepared by the relevant UAEG ministry.)
While the FNC does not have the power to reject legislation,
it can send it back to the cabinet for amendment. The FNC
also has the authority to question any government minister.

Election Announcement No Surprise
--------------


5. (C) This development had been anticipated for some time.
During his visit to Washington in August 2005, Deputy Prime
Minister/Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamdan
bin Zayed had told the Secretary to expect an announcement
about greater political participation before the end of the
year. In mid-November, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed had stated that a plan for broadening
political participation was forthcoming. Discussions of
political reform in the UAE began to percolate in earnest
earlier this year after the Ruler of the emirate of Sharjah
appointed municipal councils and announced that these
councils could one day be elected (ref A).

Selection of FNC Membership
--------------


6. (U) At present, the 40 FNC members are appointed by the
rulers of the seven semi-autonomous emirates. The emirates
of Abu Dhabi and Dubai each have eight seats, Sharjah and Ras
Al Khaimah six, and the smaller Ajman, Umm Al Qaiwain, and
Fujairah four. The Constitution leaves it up to the
individual emirates to select its FNC members. Under the new
plan, further details of which are expected to emerge on
December 3, half of the FNC membership will now be chosen by
local councils in each emirate. Membership to the local
councils will be on appointment by the local ruler of each
emirate. The number of members on each of the emirate's
councils will correspond to the number of representatives on
the FNC multiplied by 50. For example, Abu Dhabi's local
council will consist of 400 members. All told, there will be
2,000 members of local councils across the UAE. These
"super-electors," who will include dignitaries, tribal chiefs
and other influential figures in society, will then elect
from either within or outside their ranks half of the FNC.
It appears that each local council will be responsible for
electing members from its emirate. The remaining 20 FNC
members will be appointed by the rulers as before.


7. (U) In his National Day remarks, President Khalifa said:
"Considering the developments in our region, which is now
witnessing transformation and reforms, the years ahead in our
blessed march require a bigger role for the Federal National
Council by empowering it to be an authority that would
provide great support and guidance for the executive arm of
the government. We shall work to make the Council more
capable, more effective and more sensitive to the issues
affecting the nation and the people. ... And through a more
gradual, organized course, we have decided to start
activating the role of the FNC through electing half of its
members through councils for each emirate and appointing the
other half. By doing this, we will embark on a march that
culminates in more participation and interaction from all the
citizens of the country."

Participation of Women
--------------


8. (C) Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed had
told the Ambassador earlier in the year that that there would
likely be no restrictions on the participation of women in
the FNC. Economy and Planning Minister Sheikha Lubna Al
Qassimi, the only woman ever to serve in the Federal Cabinet,
told the "Gulf News" December 2 that the constitution
envisaged a move toward democracy and the rulers had been
preparing the people for it. "Now the time has come for this
natural transition," she said, adding that she wished to see
more women participating in the FNC. In the past, women have
received training from the FNC and the General Women's Union
to prepare them to play an eventual role in the council.
Their training has included observation of the FNC's
proceedings. Also, Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak, the wife of
the late UAE President Sheikh Zayed, has long been at the
forefront of those calling for greater participation in the
political process and for the empowerment of women in the
society. Academic Ebtisam Al Kitbi, a regular Embassy
contact, has told the press that she intends to present her
candidacy for the FNC. She and General Women's Union
Secretary General Noura Al Suwaidi have told us in the past

SIPDIS
of their intentions to serve on the FNC, although both have
also said that they believe it was more important to empower
the FNC than it was to open its membership to women for the
first time.

Press Coverage: Unanimous Approval for "Half Election"
-------------- --------------


9. (U) The press published interviews with government
officials, business executives, and ordinary citizens hailing
the coming of democracy to the UAE. In a front-page
editorial, "Gulf News" Editor-in-Chief Abdul Hamid Ahmad
hailed the UAE leadership's decision. "They have always
proved how close they are to their people and their deep
understanding of the positive changes taking place in the
region and the world." He said the "half election is half
the way to fully open the political process." Arabic dailies
"Al Khaleej", "Al Bayan", and "Al Ittihad" all warmly
welcomed the announcement, describing it as an "important,
historical turning point." "Al Khaleej" editorial notes that
the decision "has placed a huge burden on the shoulders of
local organizations to activate new steps and pump new blood
into the Federal establishment."

Support for Iraq, Palestinians; Condemnation of Terror
-------------- --------------


10. (U) President Khalifa's national day address also noted
the UAE's support for the unity of Iraq and its people, as
well as for Palestinian statehood. He said of Iraq, "We are
deeply pained and concerned by the deterioration of the
security situation and the continual bombings, violence,
terrorism, kidnappings, and killings of innocent civilians."
On the Palestinian issue, he said, "We hope that Israel's
withdrawal from Gaza Strip will be followed by similar
withdrawals from the occupied Arab territories so that the
Palestinian people will have the opportunity to establish
their own independent state." On the issue of terrorism,
President Khalifa said, "we have strongly condemned the
vicious terrorism bombings that hit the sisterly and friendly
countries of Egypt, Jordan, and the United Kingdom."

Comment:
--------------


11. (C) The pace of political reform in the UAE has been
admittedly slow until this landmark decision to open up the
political process. While the move is welcome, in the absence
of legislative authorities )- FNC members do not have the
power to draft or reject laws )- the significance of
President Khalifa's announcement may be less than meets the
eye. Although it is still only a "half election," we should
welcome this gradual step toward broadening the political
participation of the citizenry. Embassy programs are already
committed to advance the reform process and MEPI political
reform goals through civil society support, NGO
strengthening, legislative staff training, equipping women
with skills and techniques to use in advocacy and electoral
campaigns, developing an independent media, and now, election
assistance (refs. B, C).
SISON