UAE -- DAS CARPENTER CALL AT MFA

1. (C) Summary: November 14, DAS Scott Carpenter met with
MFA U/S Abdullah Rashid al Noaimi to seek UAEG views on Iran
and Syria. Al Noaimi characterized Iran as a dangerous,
destabilizing force in the region that needs to be treated
firmly but carefully. He recommended that the USG
"depersonalize" its criticism of the Tehran regime in order
to garner greater support from the Iranian people. Al Noaimi
admitted that engagement of Syria is not working and that the
Asad regime is running out of steam. He stated that the
Foundation for the Future will have a "hard time" since GCC
countries perceive it as taking money from their pockets to
fund the "opposition." End Summary.



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Iran )- "Dangerous and needs to be checked"


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2. (C) DAS Carpenter inquired about Iran and how USG policies
towards Iran are perceived. Al Noaimi explained that the new
Iranian regime is of particular concern to the GCC. The
recent elections have consolidated power in the hands of the
extremists and Revolutionary Guard more than ever before, he
said, and the regime clearly has ambitions beyond its
borders. The UAEG is concerned that Iran is using the UAE
for illegal transshipments, said Al Noaimi; "Iran is
dangerous and needs to be checked." The Iranians are trying
to build nuclear weapons and actively interfering in the
internal affairs of Iraq and Afghanistan, he added. Iran has
a long history of expansionism and hegemonic aspirations,
said Al Noaimi, and asserted that it is commonly accepted in
the Gulf that Iran will try to destabilize its neighbors as a
tactic to increase relative power in the region.



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"Neither stick nor carrot alone"


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3. (C) Queried about strategies to use in dealing with Iran,
Al Noaimi argued that "neither stick nor carrot will work
alone." "Iran," he warned, "is a wildcat. Don't corner it
because it will scratch." He characterized the Tehran regime
as "Bazaaris": "You need to be serious, stiff, with no sign
of inability to deal with them. They will always negotiate
and make you think that every deal is the final one, but it's
not true." Al Noaimi said that what is missing from the USG
and from the international community is a clear, simple
statement of why Iran should not have nuclear power/weapons.
He noted the Iranians, claim that they have the same rights
to nuclear power as India, Pakistan, or Israel, and that the
argument is finding sympathy, especially among smaller
countries.



4. (C) DAS Carpenter pointed out that the USG is not against
the Iranian people, but against the regime, and inquired how
USG could convey that message to the Iranians. Al Noaimi
replied that as long as the attack is pointed against the
Iranian President or even the regime, Iranian pride and
nationalism will lead the people to take the attack
personally and defend a regime that they also heavily
criticize. He advised the USG to adjust its rhetoric in
order to demonstrate that it is not against specific persons
or a regime but against policies on principle.



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"Marriage of Convenience": Syria and Iran


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5. (C) Al Noaimi admitted that engagement of SARG is not
working, and that the UAEG "no longer understands" Bashar Al
Asad. The Syrians think that history is with them, that they
can outlast any outsiders, and that history will eventually
vindicate them and their policies. DAS Carpenter inquired if
SARG is taking its cues from Iran. Al Noaimi responded that
it is simply "a marriage of convenience"; the two governments
feel that they are being targeted and therefore are
supporting each other. Al Noaimi doubted whether the regime
"realizes that the longer they play with fire (cooperation
with Iran and Hezbollah) the more likely they are to get
burned," concluding that the Asad regime is rapidly "running
out of steam."



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Forum for the Future and Civil Society


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6. (C) DAS Carpenter described the November 11-12 meetings in
Manama as successful and productive except for a minor
problem with Egypt. Al Noaimi countered that the problem was
not Egypt alone; that other countries shared Egypt,s
concerns. The difficulties arose from inadequate
preparation. "The ideas had not cooked enough," He said.
The concept papers for the Foundation and Fund reminded him
of the launching of BMENA. GCC governments would be
reluctant to accept a Foundation perceived as taking money
from their pockets and funding hostile organizations, in
essence the political opposition, he stated. "How can you
ask somebody to do something they themselves do not accept?"
DAS Carpenter pointed out that the Foundation and the Forum
are separate and that participation in the Foundation is
voluntary. He added that conflating civil society and the
opposition was a vast oversimplification. Al Noaimi replied
that the Foundation/Forum is perceived in the Gulf as one
package: "You can't ignore the iceberg below the surface
because you only see the tip." Al Noaimi said he had never
heard the term "Civil Society" while studying at Tufts and
Fletcher. DAS suggested that his failure to encounter the
concept perhaps had to do with the fact that "in the United
States one is swimming in a sea of civil society. It,s
literally everywhere."

7.(U) Message cleared by DAS Carpenter.
SISON