Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ABUDHABI332
2005-01-23 13:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Cable title:  

ASD RODMAN MEETING WITH UAE INFORMATION MINISTER

Tags:  AF ETRD IR IZ MAS PREL PTER TC 
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Cable 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 000332 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR PM, NEA, NEA/ARPI
SECDEF FOR OSD, OUSD (P)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2015
TAGS: AF ETRD IR IZ MAS PREL PTER TC
SUBJECT: ASD RODMAN MEETING WITH UAE INFORMATION MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 000332

SIPDIS

STATE FOR PM, NEA, NEA/ARPI
SECDEF FOR OSD, OUSD (P)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2015
TAGS: AF ETRD IR IZ MAS PREL PTER TC
SUBJECT: ASD RODMAN MEETING WITH UAE INFORMATION MINISTER


1. (C) Summary: During a January 12 meeting with UAE
Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ASD
Peter Rodman discussed Iraq,s upcoming election and its role
in achieving stability. Sheikh Abdullah shared concerns
about Sunni participation in the election and representation
in a future Shi,a-dominated government. He said the UAE
remains focused on Iranian meddling in Iraq, and shares U.S.
skepticism about Syrian President Bashar,s ability to shut
down the sanctuaries for Iraq,s insurgents inside Syria.
Sheikh Abdullah said the positive signals from Washington
after Mahmoud Abbas, election have given new hope to the
Palestinians, and he urged greater U.S. engagement. He said
to expect even more positive editorial changes at Dubai-based
Al Arabiya television, and he confirmed that the recent
Saudi-Bahrain spat had not affected the UAE,s desire to talk
with the U.S. about a Free Trade Agreement. End Summary.


2. (U) On the margins of the first U.S.-UAE Joint Military
Commission, Peter Rodman, Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs (ASD/ISA),joined by
Ambassador and party, called on Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al
Nahyan, Minister of Information January 12. Sheikh Abdullah
was joined by Yousef Al Otaiba, special advisor to Abu Dhabi
Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed
Forces Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Iraq election
--------------


3. (C) Sheikh Abdullah asked ASD Rodman for a readout of his
meeting a day earlier with Dubai Crown Prince (and titular
UAE Minister of Defense) Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid (MBR).
ASD Rodman said MBR had expressed concern about Iraq,s Sunni
population in the run-up to the January 30 election. ASD
Rodman said the election has enormous value, but the Sunnis
are faced with a dilemma. While they will no longer dominate
Iraq, they can be full participants in a benign political
system. Delaying the elections would not accomplish anything
because the Sunnis would still be faced with the same

dilemma. ASD Rodman noted that the Shi,a and Kurds were
reaching out to the Sunnis to reassure them that there is a
place for them. He said he hoped the Sunnis would make the
right decision because Iraq cannot survive without the
coalescence of all groups. Despite intimidation by
extremists, "polls show that 80-85% of the population want to
vote," and the U.S. still believes the majority of Iraqis
want to participate in the political process, and the U.S.
will do its best to provide maximum security. The election
will be fully legitimate.


4. (C) Will the Sunnis have a chance to vote, Sheikh Abdullah
asked? ASD Rodman said there have been some difficulties
setting up sufficient polling stations, and there was also
the problem of intimidation. Sheikh Abdullah inquired about
voting modalities, and whether the U.S. sees a single party
dominating the future national assembly. ASD Rodman said
that he was impressed by the inclusiveness of the so-called
Shi,a list, indicating a desire for national unity. It is
more a coalition than a party. ASD Rodman expressed
confidence that the election would produce a balanced
government. After the election, the politics will begin.
The new presidency council and others elected will look for
balance and make room for Sunnis to join the political
process. They will also have the task of drafting a new
constitution. He added that the Kurds have the incentive to
be inclusive, as do the Shi,a. If the Shi,a win a majority
of seats in the national assembly and the country then
fragments, their victory will be hollow. "We have to provide
a structure and incentive for the Sunni to defeat their own
extremists."

Iranian influence in Iraq
--------------


5. (C) Sheikh Abdullah asked about Iranian influence on the
Iraq election, and noted that some of the candidates on the
predominant Shi,a list had lived in Iran. ASD Rodman said
that the list supported by Ayatollah Al Sistani was a list of
Iraqis, and none of the Shi,a factions in Iraq wants to be
perceived as being a &puppet of Iran.8 The Iran-Iraq war
demonstrated that the Shi,a of Iraq were Iraqis, not a tool
of Iran. "We share UAE's view that if this were another
Iran, this would be a disaster--but that is the least likely
outcome." Sheikh Abdullah recalled a statement by Shi,a
candidate Abdul Aziz Al Hakim about the need for Iraq to
repay Iran $100 billion in war reparations. ASD Rodman said
he understood Sheikh Abdullah,s concern, but added that the
U.S. view was that Iraqis are Iraqi, and that in a democratic
Iraq, the Shi,a will be a majority who coexist with Kurds
and Sunnis. Iran will try to disrupt Iraq to prevent it from
becoming stable, but a sense of national identity will pull
Iraqis together. If the U.S. can help Iraqis consolidate
their institutions, we could have a positive influence.


6. (C) Sheikh Abdullah expressed concern about the potential
rise of a Shi,a extremist party in Iraq, similar to the
small but influential Hezbollah in Lebanon. The radical
Shi,a Hizbullah in Lebanon is disproportionately influential
with Muslims throughout the Middle East, and he is concerned
that a similar phenomenon could occur with Hizbullah in Iraq.
ASD Rodman said the extremism currently on display in Iraq
is Sunni, and the disruption is being caused by former Saddam
Hussein regime elements and foreign fighters backed by
Zarqawi. Most Shi,a are moderates who seek to participate
in the political process. Sheikh Abdullah asked what would
happen if only a small percentage of Sunnis were elected to
the national assembly, or if those Sunnis elected were
political unknowns inside the Sunni community. ASD Rodman
said there are well-known candidates, such as Iraqi President
Al Yawar, who is a tribal leader. The national assembly will
have legitimacy. The U.S. is training the army and police.
Although the struggle will continue, the U.S. believes the
moderate Iraqis will be strengthened by the creation of a
legitimately elected government, he said.


7. (C) Sheikh Abdullah asked whether voting on the basis of
lists was perhaps a bad idea. ASD Rodman said some in the
USG had concerns but the UN had determined that this was the
simplest method to implement in a short period of time. Once
the Iraqis draft a new constitution, it is open to them.
They could introduce district elections as a way to ensure
more stability.

Syria,s role
--------------


8. (C) Had the Syrians changed their policies vis--vis Iraq,
Sheikh Abdullah asked? ASD Rodman said that the problem with
Syria is that it is a place where the insurgents organize and
raise money, and that Syrian Baathists are colluding. The
infiltration of insurgents across the Syria-Iraq border is a
&symptom8 of the main problem, which is going on inside
Syria with the collusion of the government. The U.S. is
skeptical of President Bashar, even though he told A/S Burns
and ASD Rodman last September that he supports the Iraqi
government &100 percent.8 The fact is, several months
later, the same activity is taking place, and Syria should be
able to control, and is accountable for, what is going on
inside its own borders. Deputy Secretary Armitage traveled
to Damascus more recently to deliver the same message, ASD
Rodman said. U.S. patience is wearing out. Bashar has to
stop providing sanctuary for the insurgents. Bashar Al Asad
is not in control, Sheikh Abdallah suggested, and the people
around him are the old guard.


Palestinian election and the Roadmap
--------------


9. (C) In the wake of the Palestinian leadership elections,
the signals from Washington have been &quite positive,8 and
have given the Palestinians &new hope,8 Sheikh Abdullah
said. When Mahmoud Abbas was Prime Minister, he did not get
the backing he deserved, even though he was a moderate. &We
should not lose the opportunity we have with Abu Mazen8 this
time around, Sheikh Abdullah asserted. ASD Rodman recalled
President Bush,s June 24, 2002, speech in which he stated
that both sides in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute have
responsibilities, but that the Palestinian leadership was
corrupt and tainted by its association with terrorism. When
Arafat departed the scene, that opened up a new opportunity.
Israel,s Gaza disengagement plan is historic. There are now
conditions on the ground that &warrant us to plunge in and
do things.8 Sheikh Abdullah nodded in agreement. ASD
Rodman continued, &This is clearly a moment when the
conditions are right. Now is the time to engage.8 Sheikh
Abdullah agreed and noted that &everyone knew Arafat was
corrupt.8 He said that Palestinians have to get their own
state. &We should not let extremists continue to use the
Palestinian argument as a tool in other contexts,8 he added,
alluding to terrorist actions elsewhere.

Review of JMC
--------------


10. (C) ASD Rodman also reviewed the deliberations that had
taken place at the January 11-12 Joint Military Commission
(JMC). The JMC had very few complicated issues in the
military sphere, which is an indication that the relationship
is very strong. The one &vulnerability8 is the Defense
Cooperation Agreement (DCA),and the UAE side did not wish to
discuss it at the JMC, preferring to raise it directly with
the Embassy at a later time. ASD Rodman said that everywhere
we are in the world we have a status of forces arrangement,
and that we need to fix our dormant DCA with UAE.


Al Arabiya television
--------------


11. (C) ASD Rodman talked about his interview that morning
with Dubai-based Al Arabiya television. Sheikh Abdullah said
to expect more positive changes at the station. Many of the
station,s editorial staff had worked at Al Jazeera in the
past and came to Al Arabiya with the &same mentality8 as
one finds at Al Jazeera. Give Al Arabiya six more months to
change, he asked. He said he &could not understand8 how
the Qataris &allow8 Al Jazeera to broadcast what they do.
The news department is &run by fundamentalists and Arab
nationalists.8

FTA
---


12. (C) Sheikh Abdullah said the recent FTA dispute between
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was not &slowing down the UAE8 on
its FTA plans. Sheikh Abdullah said the Saudis had larger
problems but failed to solve them for many years. ASD Rodman
said the U.S. appreciates the UAE,s military cooperation,
its help in Iraq and Afghanistan, its recent economic
contribution to the earthquake/tsunami victims in Southeast
Asia, and the fact that, like the U.S., it has a strategic
interest in Iran. &We will do our best to show that we are
a reliable ally,8 he said.


13. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.


14. (U) ASD Rodman has approved this cable.
SISON