POST VIEWS ON OUTREACH TO IRAQIS IN UAE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002497

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ TC
SUBJECT: POST VIEWS ON OUTREACH TO IRAQIS IN UAE

REF: A. STATE 99829


B. ABU DHABI 2090

C. ABU DHABI 1680

Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHELE J. SISON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: The Embassy has considered ways to
accelerate engagement with Iraq's Sunni Arab community (ref
A),and believes that there could be a role for the UAEG in
using its good offices to bring together U.S. and ITG
officials with influential Sunni leaders. Abu Dhabi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and Minister of State Hamdan bin
Zayed are close to former IIG PM Iyad Allawi, a moderate Shia
trusted by the UAEG leadership. UAE leaders have been vocal
supporters of the Iraqi political process, and remain deeply
concerned about the lack of Sunni participation. For these
reasons, we believe they could be prevailed upon to host
quiet trilateral discussions in coordination with Allawi et
al. They might be less inclined to invest their political
capital on Sunni Arab elder statesman and part-time Abu Dhabi
resident Adnan Pachachi, whom they regard as having less
clout in Iraq today. We do not know of any other Sunni Arab
Iraqis resident in the UAE who could be encouraged to play a
useful role in Iraqi politics. We will continue to monitor
Iraqi visitors who may be using Dubai in particular as a
business or meeting center in an effort to identify players
with whom we might usefully engage. End Summary.

Allawi Friendship with Abu Dhabi Leadership Could Facilitate
Dialogue
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2. (C) Former Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi
developed close relationships with the Abu Dhabi leadership,
in particular with Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and
his brother, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Hamdan bin Zayed, during his
frequent, largely unpublicized visits to the UAE. Both
Sheikh Mohammed and Hamdan have told USG officials that they
wished the moderate Allawi had succeeded in the elections.
Sheikh Hamdan told Ambassador that he and Sheikh Mohammed
regard Allawi as a friend. Sheikh Hamdan said that he had
briefed Allawi on our Iraq policy, including our mutual
desire to encourage the Sunni Arab community to participate
peacefully in the political process (ref B). The Embassy
believes the UAEG would be willing to use its good offices to
facilitate communication between the USG, ITG and influential
Sunnis. If such an approach were of interest, we would
recommend that Baghdad work this with Allawi and ask him to
pitch it to MbZ and HbZ to parallel a USG request to the
Emiratis.

Iraqi Expatriates Rarely Play a Political Role
-------------- -


3. (C) The UAE provides an economic and political safe
haven for approximately 50,000 Iraqi nationals, including
Shia's, Sunnis, and Kurds, some of whom moved here more than
three decades ago in search of economic opportunities or to
escape political persecution. The vast majority of Iraqi
expatriates are professionals who strongly supported the war
and the installation of a new democratic government. Most
Iraqi expatriates appear content with their lifestyle in the
UAE and are not looking to enter politics. Even the largest
Iraqi organizations in the UAE ) the Iraqi Business Councils
in Abu Dhabi and in Dubai ) serve as fora for business and
investment dialogue, not politics. The business councils
played a limited role as information clearinghouses for Iraqi
expatriates before the January 2005 elections. (Note:
Out-of-country voter turnout for the January 2005 Iraq
elections in the UAE was 12,300, about 92 percent of total
registered voters.)


4. (C) Among the few prominent Iraqi expatriates who have
been politically active is Adnan Pachachi. Pachachi is
widely respected in UAE political circles and among Iraqi
expatriates, but he is not regarded as being sufficiently
influential in today's Iraq, and is often dismissed as being
part of a generation that no longer has a voice in Iraq,s
affairs. Given the UAE's preference for Allawi, we doubt the
leadership here would invest their political capital in
tripartite meetings with Pachachi and senior USG officials.


5. (C) Another prominent UAE resident Iraqi is Sunni cleric
Ahmed Al Kubaysi, who has strongly opposed U.S. treatment of
Iraqi Sunnis. Kubaysi has a popular religious show on Dubai
TV and the support of Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin
Rashid Al Maktoum, who views him as a force for moderation.
The Emiratis had originally promoted him to the USG in 2003,
hopeful that he could help curb Iranian influence and serve
as a moderating and unifying force for Iraqi Sunnis. The
U.S. military transported him to Iraq shortly after the end
of the Iraq war. However, in April 2003, he delivered an
inflammatory sermon at the Abu Hanifa Mosque in Baghdad in
which he insisted that "for Muslims, resistance is
legitimate." Al Kubaysi departed Iraq soon thereafter. The
UAEG has largely prevented him from voicing his political
views in public since then. (Note: When asked by OCV
organizers just before the elections about the Sunni boycott,
Al Kubaysi said that while he opposed the process, he would
not discourage people from participating in the vote.)


6. (C) The UAE also is home to a much smaller number of
post-war transplants, many of whom were members of the Saddam
regime. Most prominent among the ex-regime transplants are
Saddam's last UN Ambassador, Mohammed Al Douri, and last
Information Minister, Mohammed Al Sahaf, both of whom are
Sunnis. Al Douri lives in Dubai and Al Sahaf lives in Abu
Dhabi.


7. (U) We will continue to engage with our Iraqi expat
community contacts in an effort to identify any regular Iraqi
visitors to the UAE who might stop in Dubai for business but
who might also engage in political activity with the local
community.
SISON