MFA UNDER SECRETARY MEETS NDU DELEGATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002180

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2015
TAGS: PTER PREL KDEM PGOV IZ IR SA TC
SUBJECT: MFA UNDER SECRETARY MEETS NDU DELEGATION

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: MFA Under Secretary Abdullah Rashid Al Noaimi
met May 14 with Ambassador and a visiting delegation from the
National Defense University's (NDU) National War College and
reviewed the UAE's security concerns, and the political
reform trends that are under way in the region. Al Noaimi
said terrorism tops the list of threats facing the UAE, but
added that the UAE had thus far "contained" the threat with
the cooperation of the U.S. and allies. Iraq's current
instability, Iran's military and nuclear ambitions, and the
unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict, all potentially
threaten the UAE's way of life. In response to a question
about the USG's Freedom Agenda, Al Noaimi said that the U.S.
should encourage indigenous political reform in the region.
End Summary.


2. (U) A delegation from the NDU's National War College led
by NDU President Lt. General Michael Dunn, including former
U.S. Ambassador to the UAE, Marcelle Wahba, visited Abu Dhabi
and Dubai May 12-16. The group's "Field Studies in National
Security" program included meetings with government
officials, think tanks, UAE and American business people,
advocates for women's rights, media professionals, and
several Emirati alumni from NDU's Near East and South Asia
Center seminars. On May 14, Ambassador introduced the group
to MFA Under Secretary Abdullah Rashid Al Noaimi.

Threats to UAE's Security
--------------


3. (C) Al Noaimi chose the threats to the UAE's national
security as the main theme for his briefing to the National
War College group. The UAE, he said, is faced with several
major threats:

-- Terrorism: The UAE's principal threat, terrorism would
have a "very high impact" on the country's economy and
political stability. While there had been terror threats
against UAE interests, the country had been spared any
incidents. Emiratis live in "a neighborhood of threats,"
citing Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, and Egypt. There are elements in these countries
that would like to harm governments in the region. The UAE
is an "open" country that terrorists use as a transit point,
he said. He credited the UAE's active internal and external
intelligence services and the good cooperation with the UAE's
friends and allies, for "containing" the threat of terrorism.

-- Instability in Iraq: The UAE views the formation of the
new Iraqi government as a "step in the right direction," Al
Noaimi said, but Iraq is still a work in progress. Iraq
requires a national consensus, but that has been elusive thus
far, as the difficulty in selecting a cabinet illustrated.
"They need to sit together and agree together," he said.
Political fragmentation would be dangerous and could lead to
infighting among Kurds and among Shi'as, each of which has
its own militias. For its part, the UAE has responded by
providing political, security, and humanitarian assistance to
the Iraqis, and by working with the U.S. and other allies to
help restore Iraq's security and stability.

-- Iran: Iran military power and its nuclear weapons
ambitions worry the UAE. A nuclear Iran is "unacceptable" to
the UAE, Al Noaimi said. Iran's military presence on the
Tunbs and Moussa islands threaten trading routes in the Gulf,
including the Straits of Hormuz. Al Noaimi noted that the
Iranians have been conducting military exercises and training
related to mines, sea-to-sea missiles, and small submarines.
Iranian military installations and arms on the islands make
any tanker or shipping vessel vulnerable to an attack, he
said. The UAE deals with Iran using "both the carrot and the
stick," although the existence of different factions within
the Iranian government complicates discussions, Al Noaimi
said. Asked by an NWC student if the UAE would support a
military action against Iran, Al Noaimi laughed and said his
country "would not oppose it."

-- Saudi Arabia: Tension exists between the UAE and Saudi
Arabia over their unresolved common border, but Al Noaimi
said he did not see that the dispute over the border will one
day escalate into a military conflict. "The temperature
could rise and fall, but we will be able to handle it
bilaterally or at the Gulf Cooperation Council," he said.
"We don't want anything between us and the Saudis that would
be an issue."

-- Middle East peace: The unresolved conflict between
Israelis and Palestinians sometimes poses a security threat
to the UAE because of the sizable number of Palestinians,
Jordanians, and Egyptians living and working in the UAE.
"Any major setback in the peace process could affect the
population here," Al Noaimi warned. He urged the U.S. to
play an impartial role in helping resolve the dispute as that
would "remove a major obstacle that is making the U.S.
unpopular in the region."
-- UAE victim of its own success: An economic success story,
the UAE has proven to be a magnet for many people who want to
come to the emirates to improve their economic situation.
The UAE's attractiveness has allowed illegal migrants and
infiltrators to seep across the country,s "uncontrolled
borders," either by land or by sea, from Oman and Saudi
Arabia, Al Noaimi said.

Reform
--------------


4. (C) Asked about his views on USG reform initiatives in the
region, Al Noaimi acknowledged that the USG's approach to
discussing reform had "improved" since the idea of a Greater
Middle East initiative was first broached more than a year
ago. Emiratis understand that stability and prosperity
depend on their acceptance of a system of governance, and
that greater political participation, respect for human
rights, and the rule of law are all very important
principles, he said. Yet, each society is unique, and is not
going to accept one-size-fits-all approach. "You can't
impose from the outside. It has to develop from society
itself," he said of reform initiatives. Political reforms
manifest themselves differently in different countries, and
should be regarded as an ongoing experiment in this region,
he added.


5. (C) Al Noaimi said the UAE was "happy" with its experiment
with reform, noting the active discussion in local newspapers
and on television talk shows about whether to elect members
to the Federal National Council, and the trend toward
broadening the role of civil society, including a future role
for labor unions. Compared to four decades ago, the UAE's
political institutions have evolved considerably, including a
stronger role for the executive councils in each of the seven
emirates, he said. Al Noaimi said the UAE also has a freer
press and respects human rights. The UAE's model of
governance appeals to Iraqis, according to an opinion poll Al
Noaimi had read. Al Noaimi said he thought that President
Bush should speak forcefully about political openness in the
region. While there will be those who will interpret this as
interference and who may oppose any kind of U.S.-funded
reform initiative, others will welcome U.S. encouragement on
political openness and any technical assistance the U.S.
could offer, he said.
SISON