THE UAE FOUR MONTHS AFTER SHEIKH ZAYED'S DEATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 001156

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON KDEM TC
SUBJECT: THE UAE FOUR MONTHS AFTER SHEIKH ZAYED'S DEATH

REF: A. ABU DHABI 1002


B. 04 ABU DHABI 4586

C. 04 ABU DHABI 4185

D. 04 ABU DHABI 4130

E. O4 ABU DHABI 3955

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: UAE President and Abu Dhabi Ruler Sheikh
Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan has overseen a smooth transition
of power in his first four months in office. Gradually, the
UAE leadership has restructured and rejuvenated government
institutions, set in motion several infrastructure projects,
and begun to discuss forms of representational government.
Khalifa,s half-brother, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ),has inherited a number of
Khalifa,s former titles and responsibilities, although
Khalifa retains the key position of Chairman of the Supreme
Petroleum Council. End Summary.

GOVERNMENT RESTRUCTURING
--------------


2. (C) Since the death of Sheikh Zayed on November 2, several
changes have taken place at the UAE federal government level
and in Abu Dhabi emirate. On December 8, President Khalifa,
in his capacity as Ruler of Abu Dhabi, reorganized local
departments within the emirate, pared the membership on the
Executive Council from 14 to 9 members, and appointed MbZ to
replace him as Chairman of the Council. These changes were
significant given Abu Dhabi,s status as the economic and
political powerhouse in the UAE, and further signaled efforts
to modernize government under MbZ leadership (Ref. B).


3. (C) While Sheikh Khalifa has charged MbZ with running the
Abu Dhabi Executive Council, he has very carefully not passed
control of the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) to MbZ yet.
The SPC decides oil production for Abu Dhabi, and as its
chairman, Khalifa retains control over the emirate,s most
significant source of revenues. This status quo with regard
to SPC authority means that Khalifa, and not MbZ, would make
a final decision on the tendering of the 28 percent stake in
the Upper Zakkum oil field, a key UAEG decision eagerly
awaited by contenders Exxon, BP, and Shell.

HELP ON THE WAY FOR THE NORTHERN EMIRATES
--------------


4. (C) In two weeks, President Khalifa will travel to the
northern emirates for the first time since taking office,
Minister for Presidential Affairs Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed
told the Ambassador March 12. The relatively poorer northern
emirates learned January 17 that Khalifa had ordered $405
million for the first phase of a plan to provide improved
health, education, housing, roads, and water services to
residents of rural areas in the northern emirates. (Note:
The funds are a supplemental from Abu Dhabi,s coffers. End
note) Khalifa also directed the Ministries of Public Works
and Health to study building a specialized hospital in the
northern emirates for the treatment of cancer, heart and
other serious diseases.

WORDS AND DEEDS ) FEDERAL ...
--------------


5. (U) The president outlined plans for expanding the economy
in his National Day (December 2) statement. He promised
greater diversification, industrial development, and an
expansion of tourism and commercial activities. He called on
the private sector to play a greater role in the employment
of young Emiratis. Commenting on the changes in the tourism
and energy sectors, an MbZ adviser told Pol Chief, &It is
going to explode in the next six months.8


6. (U) Cabinet members continue to talk about the &new way
of doing business.8 Education Minister Sheikh Nahyan has
told administrators and teachers that he was very keen on
&revolutionizing8 the educational system, relying on the
latest technologies in education and management. Newly
appointed Labor and Social Affairs Minister Al Ka,abi has
announced plans to increase productivity, introduce an online
complaint system for workers, and enhance training for labor
inspectors. (However, a long-awaited update to the UAE,s
labor law, which would allow workers to join unions for the
first time, is still being studied.) New Public Works
Minister Sheikh Hamdan bin Mubarak Al Nahyan told his staff
that the ministry would set up an office in each emirate to
follow up projects. Veteran Minister of Health Hamad Abdul
Rahman Al Midfa has promised to restructure hospitals,
streamline the health care sector, and address training
needs, standards, and specialized care.

...AND LOCAL
--------------


7. (C) Abu Dhabi Executive Council member Khaldoon Al
Mubarak, who will lead the consultations on representational
government in Abu Dhabi emirate (septel),told Econ Chief
that Abu Dhabi also would be moving forward on economic
development projects within the next year. Following
Dubai,s model, the Council is already pushing decisions back
down to the departments rather than having the Council decide
everything, the net result being speedier action, Al Mubarak
and other business contacts say.


8. (U) In another sign of change, President Khalifa issued a
new law on March 5, in his capacity as Ruler of Abu Dhabi,
that grants citizens (but not foreigners) the right to sell
and purchase housing, commercial, investment and agricultural
plots, provided that they get permission from the
municipality. The law also establishes a section for
property registration in each of Abu Dhabi emirate,s
municipalities. We have been told that unless some limited
land sales were allowed, the growth of Abu Dhabi businesses
would remain limited (Ref. C).

KHALIFA COURTS OTHER RULERS
--------------


9. (C) Sheikh Khalifa does not have his father,s charisma,
nor MbZ,s affability, but he has been receiving the rulers
of the other emirates in Abu Dhabi for consultations on a
frequent and regular basis. Khalifa possesses a quality that
should serve him well in his deliberations, UAE University
history professor Fatima Al Sayegh told Pol Chief March 8:
Khalifa listens to constituents and acts generously. &In
the UAE, we don,t have democracy. We have the open council,
or majlis, which is part of the legacy of the tribe,8 and
Khalifa still uses it to hear from his people, she said.
Khalifa,s advisors appear to be launching a media blitz. On
March 13, Arabic daily &Al Bayan8 reported that Khalifa
regards consultation and democracy as the strongest
guarantees of national unity, and that the President believed
the authorities should welcome constructive criticism from
the press. On the economic side, President Khalifa has
promised greater diversification, industrial development, and
an expansion of tourism and commercial activities. He called
on the private sector to play a greater role in the
employment of young Emiratis in his December 2 National Day
statement.

DEMOCRATIZATION, WOMEN,S EMPOWERMENT IN SLOW LANE
-------------- --------------


10. (C) In the political arena, few expect change to come
swiftly. Electing members to the Federal National Council
(FNC),which remains an appointed body without any real
legislative power, has been debated for years. &In the UAE,
it will take time to develop civil society, increase the
participation of women, and introduce elections,8 FNC First
Deputy Speaker Ahmed Shabeeb Al Dhaheri told Pol Chief March

8. &We first have to create new structures and modern ways
of doing business.8 Some appear satisfied with the status
quo. Abu Dhabi TV editor Abdul Raheem Al Bateeh told Pol
Chief February 28, &As long as the (appointed) Federal
National Council is solving problems, people are OK with
it,8 he said. On the human rights front, a second group has
applied to the Labor Ministry to set up a human rights
organization. We are tracking both their application, and
that of another group that had applied to establish a human
rights NGO last July.

FOREIGN POLICY STAYS THE SAME
--------------


11. (C) The UAE,s foreign policy is unchanged. As MFA Under
Secretary Abdullah Rashid Al Noaimi told the Ambassador

SIPDIS
November 20, there may be changes in style, rhythm, and
momentum under Khalifa, but the UAE,s foreign policy depends
on institutions, not people (Ref. D). &Iraq is our foreign
policy priority,8 MFA Assistant Under Secretary for
Political Affairs Tariq Al Haidan told Pol Chief March 8.
&We are following developments in Iraq day by day and we are
anxious. We will not leave the Iraqis alone in this
difficult situation.8 Academic Al Sayegh agreed that the
stability of Iraq would remain of &great interest8 to the
UAE and the GCC. It will also insist on implementation of
the Mideast Roadmap, and consult with GCC states on
counterterrorism, free trade, and Iran, he said.


12. (C) In receiving foreign leaders, President Khalifa has
focused primarily on the region, including: Prime Minister of
Kuwait, King and Crown Prince of Bahrain, Sultan of Oman,
Emir or Qatar, GCC Secretary General, and Saudi Second
Deputy Premier. He has also received Mahmoud Abbas (as
Chairman of the Executive Committee of the PLO),Jordan,s
Prime Minister, and German Chancellor Schroeder. Khalifa,s
out-of-country trips have included: Saudi Arabia, to meet
with Crown Prince Abdullah and King Fahd, and to perform
Umrah (lesser hajj); Oman, to meet with Sultan Qaboos;
Turkmenistan, to hunt.

ON DEFENSE MATTERS, MBZ STILL CALLS THE SHOTS
--------------


13. (C) On the military side, the changes have been
relatively minor. Despite the January 1 appointment of MbZ
as Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces (a title
MbZ inherited from Khalifa),and the January 3 appointment of
Major General Hamad Mohammed Thani Al Rumaithy as the new
Chief of Staff of the UAE Armed Forces, a title MbZ had held
since January 1993, MbZ still makes decisions and meets
seniors foreign commanders and officers, while Hamad Thani
administers the General Headquarters. President Khalifa
issued a federal decree on January 7 promoting MbZ from Lt.
General to General, and Major General Hamad Thani to the rank
of Lt. General.
COMMENT
--------------

14. (C) Khalifa,s decision to develop the infrastructure in
the northern emirates, not by giving money directly to their
rulers, but by using a combination of UAEG and Abu Dhabi
institutions, was a shrewd move ) no doubt learned from his
father - to maintain Abu Dhabi control and loyalty. MbZ
appears content with the authority he inherited from Khalifa
as Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, and he
remains in control of the armed forces. MbZ is by far a more
engaging interlocutor than Khalifa, but there are other
government personalities, such as Information Minister Sheikh
Abdullah bin Zayed and Interior Minister Sheikh Saif bin
Zayed, who have appeared more prominently in public roles in
recent months than they had in the past.
SISON