DISCUSSION OF POLITICAL REFORM IN UAE STARTS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABU DHABI 001002

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARPI, NEA/PI, AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV KMPI TC
SUBJECT: DISCUSSION OF POLITICAL REFORM IN UAE STARTS TO
PERCOLATE

REF: A. ABU DHABI 908

B. 04 ABU DHABI 3210

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The UAE is now the only state in the Gulf
without elected bodies. However, discussion is starting to
percolate in the UAE media and in private settings about the
potential for political reforms in the country, including the
possibility of holding elections at the local and federal
levels, and allowing women to serve in a strengthened federal
representative body. Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah
bin Zayed told the Ambassador on March 2 that the Federal
Supreme Council (composed of the rulers of the seven
emirates) would in the near future discuss representational
government. In February, the Ruler of the emirate of Sharjah
appointed municipal councils and announced that these
councils could one day be elected. Ajman emirate is
considering establishing a consultative council, though it
has not gone as far as suggesting that it would be elected.
Some observers believe these developments in Sharjah and
Ajman could be a prelude to eventual changes at the Federal
National Council (FNC),which remains an appointed body
without real legislative power.


2. (C) Summary continued: Elections in Iraq, the West Bank
and Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman have
contributed significantly to the current discussion about
reforms in the UAE. However, UAE nationals are adamant that
change is unacceptable if imposed by outsiders. Federal
elections, if and when they occur, would almost certainly not
affect senior posts, such as president, vice president, and
prime minister, all of which are held by members of Abu
Dhabi,s and Dubai,s ruling families. End Summary.

CALLS FOR REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT...
--------------


3. (C) In the past few weeks, there has been a lively public
discussion, widely reported in the media, about the need for
democratic reforms in the UAE. Led by newspaper columnists
and academics, and even live talk shows on Dubai TV, the
debate about reform is being fueled by political developments
elsewhere in the region, including democratic elections in
Iraq, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Gulf, and growing
opposition to Syria,s continued military occupation of
Lebanon. &With elections being held in Saudi Arabia, the
UAE will be the only country in the region that does not have
elections,8 Saeed Hareb, vice chancellor for community
affairs and law professor at the UAE University in Al Ain,
told Pol Chief on February 28. &It is strange that Iraqis
were registering and voting in the UAE for their country,s
election, and yet UAE citizens do not have the right to
vote,8 Hareb said. A constitutional scholar, Hareb said he
often reminds his law students and others that the
introduction to the UAE Constitution makes clear the UAE
founding fathers, commitment to democracy (the Constitution
preamble states that the Constitution should be used to
&move forward toward comprehensive democratic parliamentary
governance, in an Arab Islamic society free of fear and
worry8).


4. (C) In the midst of this debate about political reform,
Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah
emirate, announced February 22 the formation of nine
appointed municipal councils in Sharjah, and added that these
councils were a prelude to direct municipal elections (Dubai
septel to follow). Within days, Ajman emirate announced it
was considering establishing a consultative council.
&Sheikh Sultan threw a stone in the lake and now we are
seeing the waves,8 Dr. Sulaiman Al Jassim, an Abu Dhabi
academic and political observer, told Pol Chief February 28.
Brigadier Saeed Juma Al Qasimi, former director of the Al Ain
Civil Defense Department, praised Sharjah,s ruler, calling
the decision to have municipal councils in Sharjah &a good
step, whereas having them via elections in the future
reflects the Ruler,s vision and wisdom.8 Brig. Al Qasimi
said he hoped the other emirates would follow Sharjah,s
initiative.


5. (C) Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told
the Ambassador on March 2 that the Supreme Council, which
comprises the seven rulers of the emirates and is the highest
federal authority in the UAE, would be meeting in the near
future to discuss representational government. The rulers of
Fujairah and Ajman have paid calls on President Khalifa bin
Zayed in recent days, a pattern similar to what we saw ahead
of last November,s Cabinet reshuffle. These consultations
with the other emirates could be a sign that Abu Dhabi,s
ruling Al Nahyan family is launching the slow process of
building a consensus on opening up the political space.

...GO BACK THREE DECADES
--------------


6. (C) The idea of electing public officials is not new in
the UAE. In the 1970s, Ajman emirate had several councils
whose heads were elected by the general public. Before his
father replaced him as his heir apparent in June 2003, Ras Al
Khaimah Crown Prince Sheikh Khalid bin Saqr Al Qasimi had
openly suggested that UAE citizens be allowed to vote for FNC
members. (Note: Some analysts believe that Sheikh Khalid,s
outspoken support of the idea of political liberalization was
a factor in his father,s decision to remove him from the
succession line. End note.) Nevertheless, Sheikh Saud, who
replaced Sheikh Khalid as Crown Prince, told Ambassador
February 28 that he and his elderly father (Sheikh Saqr bin
Mohammed Al Qasimi) were not opposed to the idea of municipal
elections, and viewed the need to broaden the political space
in the context of the new generation of Emiratis. Sheikh
Saud said he believed it was a good idea to allow smaller
emirates like Ajman and Sharjah demonstrate first what &they
could do8 with elections. Elections of FNC members will be
held one day as well, he predicted, without suggesting a
timeframe. In April 2003, Dubai had announced its intent to
establish elected district councils, but, as reported Ref. B,
Dubai,s Al Maktoum leadership quietly dropped the idea amid
concerns about the possible effect on stability that a direct
election, even a local one, might have. Mohammed Al Abbar,
CEO of Dubai,s top real estate development company, told DCM
February 20 that the Dubai leadership had not laid the
groundwork for elections )- either within Dubai or with Abu
Dhabi.

CHANGE IS NEEDED, BUT IT TAKES TIME
--------------


7. (C) &This talk of elections in our country is not new,8
said Dr. Yousef Al Hassan, director of the Institute for
Diplomatic Studies at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told
Pol Chief February 23. Al Hassan, who supports the idea of
opening up the political space as long as it is not done in
haste, encouraged USG officials to raise democracy in their
ongoing dialogue with UAEG officials, but in the context of
what is happening elsewhere in the region. &Don,t impose
anything on the UAE. Just talk to the rulers about what,s
taking place in Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, and they
will get the message,8 Al Hassan said. Academic Al Jassim
agreed with this approach. &We love our rulers. They take
care of us. And they want change. But all of us want the
change to be homegrown so that we can take ownership of it,8
he said.


8. (C) UAE University,s Saeed Hareb also counseled against
pressing too rapidly for reforms. &It,s like medicine.
You have to give it in small doses.8 At the same time, the
UAE leadership would be unwise to prevent political reform,
since that would risk forcing any opposition &underground.8
The rulers of the UAE also know that if they grant people,s
wishes too quickly, the citizens will demand even more, he
said. He stressed the importance of offering civic education
not only to school students but to community groups as well.
&It is important to plant the seeds of democracy at an early
age8 as a way to prepare Emiratis to assume their
responsibilities, Hareb added. Writing in the
semi-government Arabic daily Al Ittihad on February 16,
journalist Mohammed Al Hammadi makes the case that while the
sheikhs may be taking care of the population today, everyone
needs to think about, and prepare for, the future. Elections
can be a vehicle for ensuring the broadest possible
representation in society, he said, and should not be viewed
as a &forbidden8 activity. &It,s better to arrive late
than not at all,8 he writes. The UAE can learn from the
experiences of other countries. When Pol Chief commented
favorably to Al Hammadi on February 28 on his weekly column
in which he discusses democratization, Al Hammadi replied
that he writes what he wants -- except for criticism of the
ruling families.

A FAVORITE TARGET: THE FEDERAL NATIONAL COUNCIL
-------------- --


9. (C) When academics and journalists talk about reforming
the UAE Government and introducing elections, the FNC is the
institution they most focus on. The FNC,s 40 members are
appointed by the Rulers of the seven emirates, with numbers
allocated in proportion to their population, to serve
two-year terms. This federal institution has little more
than a consultative function, since it can review and amend,
but not block legislation proposed by the federal Council of
Ministers. However, as we have witnessed firsthand,
ministers can be called before the FNC for questions on their
performance. For some older generation Emiratis like Awad Al
Otaiba, a senior official in the Ministry of Energy, the very
fact that FNC members can grill ministers is proof enough
that constituents have a voice. &We already have
democracy,8 he asserted to Pol Chief February 24. But most
academics and journalists expressing their views about the
FNC of late believe the existing &parliament8 does not
represent the public at large.


10. (C) Ali Jassim Ahmed, an FNC member from Umm Al Qaiwain
emirate, told Pol Chief March 1 that there had been six draft
proposals for amending the UAE Constitution to change the way
FNC members were selected, but that there were &certain
parties,8 including conservative elements in UAE society,
who were not in favor of change. &It is good to start
talking about elections. We hope that this will succeed.8
He was one of several FNC members and staff who traveled to
the United States last September on a Special International
Visitor program to observe democratic bodies at the state and
federal level. Academic Sulaiman Al Jassim said that the
role of the FNC should be strong and effective in order for
federal institutions to be stronger than local ones.


11. (C) The FNC was established in 1972, and its members are
distributed as follows: Abu Dhabi and Dubai ) 8 members
each, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah ) 6 members each, Umm Al
Qaiwain, Ajman, and Fujairah ) 4 members each. The UAE
Constitution states that the selection of members is up to
each ruler. None of our contacts, whether journalists,
academics, or FNC members themselves, believes that
individual emirates will step out of line and start selecting
members in a manner different from the other emirates. &You
can,t fly with one wing,8 said UAE University,s Hareb.
The consensus is that the FNC either will remain an appointed
body, or it will become an elected body with the consent of
all the rulers. Federal elections, if and when they occur,
would almost certainly not affect senior posts, such as
president, vice president, and prime minister, all of which
are traditionally held by members of Abu Dhabi,s and
Dubai,s ruling families.


12. (C) In a February 22 op-ed in Al Khaleej newspaper, UAE
University professor Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdullah described the
current practice of appointing FNC members as
&anachronistic.8 He criticized the FNC for failing to
adapt to changes and for not representing public sentiments
adequately (ref A). The FNC comes under fire even from
within its ranks because it cannot propose a law. Its role
is to discuss draft laws submitted to it; the government can
pass any law even if it is rejected unanimously by the FNC.
Dr. Habib Al Mulla, an FNC member from Dubai, called for the
FNC to have the power to propose laws and discuss public
issues without permission from the Cabinet, according to
quotes attributed to him by the Gulf News. (Al Mulla
subsequently told CG Dubai that he had been embarrassed by
the article; he declined to elaborate further.) Mohammed
bin Ali Al Nagbi, an FNC member from Ras Al Khaimah, told
Khaleej Times newspaper that he was against the idea of an
election, but he said he would support it as long as the idea
came from within and was not imposed in response to external
pressure.

HOW LONG WILL THE FNC REMAIN CLOSED TO WOMEN?
--------------


13. (C) Opinion is divided on the question of whether to
allow women to become FNC members. Some conservatives and
Islamists do not support opening up membership to women.
Moderate and liberal academics and journalists blame the
conservatives for excluding women to date, despite repeated
calls by Sheikha Fatima (the widow of the late President
Sheikh Zayed) urging a greater role for women in the
political arena. That said, the stock answer we get from
most quarters when asked when women will finally be admitted
to the FNC is that &things take time8 in the UAE; in any
event, the decision on whether to appoint women will lie with
the individual rulers, some of whom have indicated that they
intend to do so when the opportunity next arises. Al Ittihad
newspaper,s Al Hammadi, who covered the FNC for six years,
said the institution is definitely in need of change, but
acknowledged that change is likely to be slow in coming. He
predicted that women would have to wait at least another year
before one of the emirates, rulers appoints them to a seat.


14. (C) General Women,s Union director general, Noura Al
Suweidi, has told us that about a year before Sheikh Zayed
died, her organization had submitted a list of women
candidates to him for his consideration. There has been no
action taken since. The possibility of women being appointed
to the FNC is still &talk, promises, and aspiration,8
lamented Ahlam Al Lamki, director of research and studies at
the General Women,s Union, when Pol Assistant asked her
March 1 about the issue of including women in the FNC. She
said the women,s organization had hoped that women would
have been appointed by the time the new session starts this
spring, but that has not happened.


15. (C) A number of our contacts spoke of a quota of FNC
seats being set aside for women, with Hareb stating that he
had heard that a one-third quota of seats might be under
consideration. A quota for women would guarantee them seats
in the legislative body, something that the current system of
appointments, or a potential general election, would not.
The General Women,s Union,s Al Lamki told us that the
organization had not heard of a proposal for a quota for
women members. (Note: Seven women serve on the Sharjah
Consultative Council, which advises the Sharjah Ruler, and
two women are among the 88 members of the new municipal
councils. Women do not serve on any of the other emirates,
governing or consultative bodies. End note.)


16. (C) Our contacts told us that Sheikha Lubna Al Qassimi,s
appointment last November as Minister of Economy and Planning
was highly significant for women. Besides providing a role
model for other UAE women, Sheikha Lubna,s appointment paves
the way for women who aspire to careers in government.
&There are many Sheikha Lubnas out there,8 asserted Saeed
Hareb of UAE University. &At UAE University, 90 percent of
my female colleagues are better than men,8 he added.
Academic Al Jassim said that women and men should participate
side by side. Women are educated, and they have a
ministerial position, so why shouldn,t they join the FNC as
well as other federal institutions? he asked.

Comment:
--------------


17. (C) The pace of political reform in the UAE is slow. We
don,t expect change will happen soon. Abu Dhabi Crown
Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed told the Ambassador
September 16 that the UAE had hired a U.S. consultant to
explore ways the country could broaden the political
participation of its citizenry. The debate about political
reform among academics and journalists is under way, and this
first step is a positive development. The government is
doing the right thing by allowing broad )- and critical --
media coverage. Post will seek to advance this nascent
process and MEPI political reform goals through civil society
support, NGO strengthening, legislative staff training,
equipping women with skills and techniques to use in advocacy
and electoral campaigns, developing an independent media,
and, eventually, elections assistance.
SISON