PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MESIC'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000968

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MESIC'S
REELECTION PROSPECTS


Classified By: Polecon Counselor Nicholas Hill, for reasons 1.5 (B) and
(D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In what was mostly an inside baseball discussion
about Croatian politics, President Mesic's top Domestic
Policy Advisor, Igor Dekanic, told us on May 26 that he was
optimistic about Mesic's reelection prospects -- although an
official announcement of his candidacy was still months away.
Mesic had the likely support of all the key opposition
parties and maybe even of the HDZ. Dekanic praised the
current government; PM Sanader was doing more to implement a
reform agenda than the prior SDP-led government. Mesic's
agenda is the same as the current government's, including
getting into NATO and the EU, and cooperating with the War
Crimes Tribunal. So long as Sanader could keep his party's
nationalists at bay, the HDZ was on the right course and
Mesic was comfortable working with the government. That
said, according to Dekanic, Sanader needed to show progress
on his reform agenda to keep his rank and file happy. End
Summary.


2. (C) We spoke to Igor Dekanic, President Mesic's Domestic
Policy Advisor, in his offices on May 26. He was very
satisfied with Mesic's position in the run up to presidential
elections this coming winter. He said that Mesic had
carefully courted support across a range of political
parties, including virtually all the members of the previous
ruling coalition. A number of parties, including the
Croatian Peoples Party (HNS),the Liberal Party (LS),and
Libra, have already stated publicly that they will support
the President. The Social Democrats, the leading opposition
party, look likely to line up behind Mesic. Owing in part to
its own disarray, the Peasants Party (HSS) is also likely to
back Mesic, although they may wait until the last moment
before showing support. Dekanic said even those parties
contemplating fielding candidates to run against Mesic were
not necessarily doing it with a view to winning. Should HDZ
run current Deputy Prime Minister Andrej Hebrang for
president, representing the party's right-wing base, he would
lose. This may even help Sanader keep the party's
nationalists in their box.

Foreign Policy on Domestic Politics
--------------


3. (C) We asked Dekanic how foreign policy -- particularly
relations with Serbia-Montenegro -- was affecting domestic
politics in Croatia at the moment. He said the situation was
stable. SaM President Marovic had just come to Zagreb and
had very productive meetings -- although both sides agreed
not to get too much in the weeds on issues, given the
political uncertainty in Belgrade at the moment. We asked if
Mesic's recent snub of SaM Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic
reflected Mesic's playing domestic politics in an election
year. In short, yes, Dekanic answered. Turning more
serious, Dekanic described Draskovic as a metaphor for the
whole political situation in Serbia right now. Hard-line
nationalism had made a comeback, and the emergence of
Tomislav Nikolic -- whose Serbian Radical Party still claims
sizable parts of Croatia as its own -- was troubling.
Croatia, Dekanic said, will try to prevent a similar
nationalist backlash. "We don't want to wake up the same
sort of people here." (He conceded that Draskovic's
nationalism was not of the same virulence as Nikolic's.)


4. (C) According to Dekanic, keeping Croatia on the reform
track -- toward NATO and the EU -- was essential. "We need
progress to keep the nationalists at bay." He said that
President Mesic remains a staunch supporter of the War Crimes
Tribunal. PM Sanader was also doing everything he could to
cooperate with the ICTY, in accordance with Croatia's
obligations. This would continue, although Dekanic conceded
that the current government must oppose elements of recent
indictments that call into question the legacy of former
president Franjo Tudjman. We stressed to Dekanic the
importance of seeing indictee Ante Gotovina delivered to The
Hague. Dekanic agreed, adding, however, that if Gotovina
remained an impediment to Croatia's reform process, the
current HDZ government would have a difficult time keeping
its nationalist elements in check. Gotovina could "tip the
scales" inside the HDZ, and then Sanader will have real
problems.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Politics in Croatia are fairly straight forward
these days, and Mesic's prospects for reelection are looking
about as good as they can at this stage in the election
cycle. His approval ratings are consistently in the 80s.
Dekanic does describe a threat: reawakening Croatia's


nationalists. This is more a long-term problem for PM
Sanader than for Croatia as a whole. The Prime Minister's
party, the HDZ, is best looked at like a bicycle. So long as
there is forward movement on Sanader's reform agenda, then
the party's reformers should remain in charge. When there is
no more forward movement, then HDZ -- particularly its
current leadership -- could have problems.

FRANK


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