SURVEY ON REFUGEE RETURN TO CROATIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000410

SIPDIS


FOR EUR/SCE, PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2014
TAGS: PREF PHUM PREL HR
SUBJECT: SURVEY ON REFUGEE RETURN TO CROATIA

Classified By: PolOff Mitch Benedict for reason 1.5 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Results of an extensive survey, financed jointly by
USAID and the OSCE, show that only five percent of ethnic
Serb refugees -- approximately 10,500 out of the estimated
210,000 ethnic Serbs from Croatia who are now in Serbia or
Bosnia -- plan to return to Croatia in the next five years,
and that receiving communities remain strongly opposed to
return. The survey indicates that there are still strong
currents of antipathy in Croatia to Serb refugee returns and
that additional substantial returns of refugees are unlikely.
The survey has not yet been released publicly; however, the
OSCE has discussed the results with the Government and
briefed UNHCR.


2. (C) The reported five percent who plan to return compares
with 25-30 percent of Croatia Serbs in Serbia who two years
ago told UNHCR representatives they would return to Croatia
under "certain conditions." The Croatia OSCE Mission says
the survey simply confirms what they already know, mainly
that refugee populations lack sufficient information in order
to make an informed decision on return. We believe that
information provided through an organized campaign, as
proposed by the OSCE Mission, is by itself unlikely to boost
returns substantially, and that in the end additional returns
of ethnic Serb refugees to Croatia will number somewhere
between the optimistic OSCE projection of 40,000 and the
survey's 10,500. End Summary.

Background and Methodology of Survey
--------------


3. (SBU) USAID, in support of the OSCE's return and
reintegration program, financed a survey to determine the
emotional and motivational factors that affect the return of
refugees (primarily Croatian Serbs) and the level of
acceptance of their return by the local population. The
survey, conducted by the Zagreb-based PULS Agency, looked at
four different populations: (1) the domiciled population,
mixed but largely ethnic Croat, living in areas of return for
ethnic Serb refugees (the so-called "war-affected areas");
(2) ethnic Serb refugees originally from Croatia who are
living in Serbia Montenegro and Bosnia Herzegovina; (3)
ethnic Croat refugees from Bosnia Herzegovina who are living
in Croatia; and, (4) a reference group of all Croatian
citizens. (Comment: the 2001 census reported that 89.6
percent of the population of Croatia is ethnic Croat; ethnic
Serbs make up 4.5 percent, and no other ethnic group makes up
more than 0.5 percent of the population. The 1991 census
found that 12.6 percent of the population was ethnic Serbs.
End Comment.)


4. (SBU) The PULS survey was based on a questionnaire that
was completed through a personal interview conducted in the
respondent's place of residence. Interviews lasted 30-40
minutes, and were conducted in the December 2003 to January
2004 timeframe. The sample size for each of the four groups
varied, but was between 600-1000 for each of the four groups.
The research represented the largest survey done on public
attitudes regarding the issue of refugee return and
reintegration to date.

Substantial Additional Returns Unlikely
--------------


5. (SBU) Only five percent of both refugee populations --
ethnic Croat refugees from Bosnia Herzegovina and ethnic Serb
refugees from Croatia -- say they plan on returning to their
former country of domicile in the next five years. Given
that there are approximately 210,000 ethnic Serb refugees
(190,000 in Serbia Montenegro and 20,000 in Bosnia
Herzegovina),a return rate of five percent would mean that
only 10,500 ethnic Serb refugees plan to return. Only 15
percent of ethnic Serb refugees described Croatia as a place
they would want to live and 60 percent say they will never
return to their former homes.


6. (SBU) Information provided by former acquaintances,
friends, and family forms the basis of what refugees know
about former communities and homes. Most survey respondents
know someone who returned, and such private sources of
information are the most trusted. Less than 15 percent of
ethnic Serbs living in Serbia Montenegro report having heard
positive impressions about conditions in their former homes,

while over 30 percent report having heard negative
impressions. More than half of all ethnic Serbs responded
that living among people of their own nationality is
important or very important, which also supports a survey
finding that both ethnic Croats and ethnic Serbs would be
more willing to return if there is a return en masse.


7. (SBU) Younger and more educated survey respondents are the
least likely to want to return -- a finding which is
reflected by the actual returnee population. Most returnees
are elderly; young people and families are unlikely to return
to where there are no jobs, and the prospects for employment
are slim. A large majority of respondents -- 68 percent of
ethnic Serb refugees and 78 percent of ethnic Croat refugees
-- say their primary focus over the next five years is to
improve their living conditions where they now live.

Return of Refugees Still Strongly Opposed
--------------


8. (SBU) Among the domiciled population in war-affected areas
of Croatia -- the mixed but largely ethnic Croat population
that never left Croatia -- there is still strong opposition
to the return of ethnic Serb refugees. Fully 30 percent of
the population currently residing in war-affected areas
responded that cohabitation between ethnic Serbs and Croats
is completely or mostly impossible; half the respondents said
they felt ethnic Serbs want to return to Croatia because they
want to start the war again.


9. (SBU) By a margin of over 2:1 those who live in
war-affected areas, and ethnic Croat refugees from Bosnia,
think the return of Serbian refugees is not a good thing for
Croatia. In addition, nearly 50 percent of the general
population of Croatia thinks that the return of Serbian
refugees is not a good thing for Croatia. Of the population
living in war-affected areas, nearly 80 percent have had
Serbian refugees return to their town or village, and more
than half the respondents report they are not happy about it.


10. (SBU) There is also strong opposition to government
assistance to ethnic Serb returnees, including reconstruction
of homes and provision of alternative accommodation. Only
three percent of all non-Serb respondents said the Government
should encourage ethnic Serbs to return and give them all
possible assistance to do so. In contrast, 30-40 percent of
all non-Serb respondents said the government should not help
Serbian refugees at all. A majority of respondents of the
domiciled population in war-affected areas that never left,
and the general population, think that ethnic Serbs should
not get back their occupancy/tenancy rights. In general,
27-35 percent of all non-Serb respondents believe that ethnic
Serbs left Croatia voluntarily and should not be allowed
back.


OSCE Remains Guardedly Optimistic
--------------


11. (C) The OSCE Mission to Croatia told us that the survey
confirms what the Mission already knows: there are strong
reservations on the part of receiving communities toward the
return of ethnic Serb refugees. However, OSCE Mission
staffers have told us that the survey offers wide latitude
for interpretation -- and that a total return of only 10,500
refugees (para 7) is well below their expectations. The
OSCE's Return and Reintegration Unit will argue that they
still expect approximately 14,000 total households -- at
least 40,000 people -- to return by the end of 2006. Higher
returns are still possible, according to the OSCE, if full
and complete information is made available to potential
returnees.


12. (U) The OSCE's optimistic figures are also based in part
on an informal survey conducted in 2001 by UNHCR in Serbia
during a re-registration exercise of all 230,000 refugees
from Croatia in Serbia at the time. The data showed that
approximately 25-30 percent of refugees -- 70,000 people --
said that they would return to Croatia under certain
conditions, the primary one being return of housing or
provision of alternative accommodation.


13. (U) A projected return of 14,000 households is based on
the following. There are 12,000 pending applications for
reconstruction assistance, and of those approximately half
are likely to receive positive decisions for reconstruction
assistance. In addition, the OSCE calculates that

approximately 23,000 households outside war-affected areas,
and perhaps and additional 10,000 households within
war-affected areas, lost their occupancy/tenancy right (OTR)
to live in socially owned apartments. According to the
Government's estimate -- which the OSCE assumes to be low --
only 5,000 OTR holders will avail themselves of alternative
accommodation and return to Croatia. Therefore, a total
figure of 14,000 households still to return is based on 6,000
apartment dwelling families who receive compensation for lost
OTR; 6,000 families who receive reconstruction assistance;
and, 2,000 families who return to claimed properties that are
now still occupied.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) The total number of additional returns through the
end of 2006 is likely to fall somewhere between the survey's
low estimate of 10,500 total individuals and the OSCE's
optimistic estimate of 40,000. Unmarried youth and young
families are the least likely to return because employment
opportunities in the war-affected areas are relatively bleak
and will remain so for the foreseeable future.


15. (C) The disincentives for the working age population to
return are strong. There are few economic incentives for
businesses to locate in these areas, and the huge socialist
behemoths that once employed the masses by the thousands are
either dead or dying for lack of investment and markets.
Consequently, potential returnees are going to remain the
elderly and those willing to engage in small-scale
agricultural pursuits -- a limited population that is only
getting smaller.


16. (C) We believe that OSCE and/or GOC information campaigns
designed to encourage return are likely to be only marginally
effective at best. Refugees are most likely to continue to
make decisions on their future based on what they hear from
former neighbors, friends, and family members who have
returned. The attitudes of receiving communities, and how
those attitudes play out in terms of safety and security,
will remain paramount. A half million dollar ad campaign,
for example, is likely to fall on deaf ears if ethnic Serb
males can be arbitrarily arrested and detained on war crimes
accusations (the perception in Eastern Slavonia),or that,
once reconstructed, one's house may be attacked and burned --
as happened recently in the Zadar hinterlands.


17. (C) One could interpret the survey to mean that the
primary factors determining return are societal attitudes and
jobs, variables over which the GOC has only marginal control
in the short to mid-term. That, combined with the estimate
that the total number of future returnees is going to be
relatively small, should give the GOC confidence to do all it
can on the variables over which it does have control --
namely processing applications for reconstruction assistance,
facilitating repossession, and providing alternative
accommodation for former holders of OTR.
FRANK


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