CROATIAN PRESS REPORTS NEW ICTY INDICTMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000380

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR S/WCI AND EUR/SCE
THE HAGUE FOR KAYE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2008
TAGS: PGOV PREL KAWC
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PRESS REPORTS NEW ICTY INDICTMENTS

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM PATRICK S. MOON FOR REASON 1.5 (B, D)

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) THE CROATIAN PRESS IS WIDELY REPORTING THAT THE
GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA HAS RECEIVED NEW SEALED ICTY
INDICTMENTS FROM THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL. THE GOVERNMENT IS
REFUSING TO COMMENT, BUT THE PRESS CITES THAT SANADER AND
OTHER HDZ LEADERS ARE WORKING HARD TO MANAGE POLITICAL
FALLOUT BEFORE THE INDICTMENTS ARE MADE PUBLIC. THE GOC
RECOGNIZES THAT ITS COOPERATION WITH THE TRIBUNAL WILL BE
UNDER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S MICROSCOPE; SANADER'S
GOVERNMENT KNOWS THAT DECISIONS ABOUT CROATIA'S SUITABILITY
AS AN EU CANDIDATE WILL DEPEND ON HIS ACTIONS. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) ON MARCH 5, ALL OF THE CROATIAN PRESS REPORTED THAT
NEW INDICTMENTS AGAINST MLADEN MARKAC AND IVAN CERMAK HAD
BEEN HANDED DOWN BY THE ICTY PROSECUTOR AND THAT THEY HAD
BEEN DELIVERED UNDER SEAL TO THE GOC OFFICE FOR COOPERATION
WITH ICTY ON FEBRUARY 26. THE FACT OF THE INDICTMENTS HAS
BECOME AN OPEN SECRET IN ZAGREB, BUT GOC LEADERS REFUSE TO
COMMENT OR SPECULATE ON THE RECORD. INDICTMENTS AGAINST
MARKAC AND CERMAK FOR THEIR ACTIVITIES DURING AND AFTER
"OPERATION STORM" IN NOVEMBER 1995 HAVE BEEN EXPECTED IN
ZAGREB SINCE JANUARY.


3. (SBU) PM SANADER REPORTEDLY BRIEFED PRESIDENT MESIC ABOUT
THE INDICTMENTS ON MARCH 1. MESIC IN TURN BRIEFED FORMER PM
RACAN (NOW LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION) ON MARCH 2. ACCORDING
TO PRESS REPORTS, SANADER HAS ALSO DISCUSSED THE INDICTMENTS
WITH ANTO DJAPIC, LEADER OF THE EXTREME NATIONALIST CROATIAN
PARTY OF RIGHT (HSP) IN ORDER TO TEMPER THE HSP REACTION AND
THEREBY COVER THE GOVERNMENT'S NATIONALIST POLITICAL FLANK.
THE PRESS REPORTS THAT SANADER WANTS THE TWO INDICTEES TO
ANNOUNCE THE INDICTMENTS THEMSELVES, AT THE SAME TIME AS THEY
PUBLICLY AGREE TO TRAVEL TO THE HAGUE TO ANSWER THE CHARGES.
THE GOVERNMENT WILL REPORTEDLY OFFER THE COURT THE SAME
"GUARANTEES" FOR MARKAC AND CERMAK WHICH IT GAVE ON BEHALF OF
ICTY INDICTEE RAHIM ADEMI, WHO WAS RELEASED BY ICTY TO AWAIT
TRIAL AT HOME IN CROATIA.


4. (SBU) CERMAK IS ALREADY ON THE PUBLIC RECORD AS DECLARING
HIS READINESS TO GO THE HAGUE IF INDICTED. IN A RECENT PRESS
INTERVIEW CERMAK NOTED THAT HE HAD ALREADY BEEN "INTERVIEWED"
BY ICTY INVESTIGATORS. HE TOLD THE PRESS THAT HE "WOULD
CONTINUE TO COOPERATE WITH THE HAGUE" SO AS "NOT TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS FOR HIS HOMELAND," A CLEAR REFERENCE TO THE DAMAGE
TO CROATIA'S EU BID CAUSED BY ICTY PIFWC ANTE GOTOVINA'S
FUGITIVE STATUS.

INDICTMENTS AGAINST BOSNIAN CROATS
--------------


6. (SBU) CROATIA'S PRESS REPORTS THAT ICTY INDICTMENTS HAVE
BEEN HANDED DOWN ON THREE BOSNIAN CROATS, MILIVOJ PETKOVIC,
JADRANKO PRLIC AND SLOBODAN PRALJAK, ALL FOR ACTIVITIES
DURING THE WAR IN BIH. PETKOVIC AND PRALJAK WERE HVO
COMMANDERS AND PRLIC WAS PRESIDENT OF THE SHORT-LIVED
PSEUDO-STATE OF HERCEG-BOSNA. PRALJAK AND PETKOVIC BOTH
RESIDE IN ZAGREB. PETKOVIC IS CURRENTLY THE INSPECTOR
GENERAL OF THE CROATIAN ARMY AND PRALJAK (WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ANCIENT MOSTAR BRIDGE) IS A
BUSINESSMAN PROMINENT IN ZAGREB HIGH SOCIETY. WHILE THESE
THREE INDICTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS POLITICALLY SENSITIVE
-- THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAR IN BOSNIA AND NOT WITH
THE RECAPTURE OF CROATIAN TERRITORY IN "OPERATION STORM" --
THEY WILL ALSO PRESENT POLITICAL CHALLENGES TO THE SANADER
GOVERNMENT.

COMMENT
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7. (C) WHILE THESE INDICTMENTS PRESENT A POLITICAL CHALLENGE
TO THE SANADER GOVERNMENT, THEY ALSO PRESENT AN IMPORTANT
OPPORTUNITY. SANADER HAS BEEN SEEKING TO CONVINCE THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- AND PARTICULARLY EU DECISIONMAKERS
-- THAT HIS GOVERNMENT IS DOING ALL IT CAN TO COOPERATE FULLY
WITH THE ICTY, DESPITE CROATIA'S FAILURE TO APPREHEND AND
TRANSFER GOTOVINA. IF SANADER CAN "DELIVER" ON THE NEW SET
OF INDICTMENTS, HIS ARGUMENT ON GOTOVINA WILL BE
STRENGTHENED. QUICK AND DECISIVE ACTION COULD ALSO OVERCOME
SPECIFIC BRITISH AND DUTCH RESERVATIONS THAT ARE BLOCKING
CROATIA'S EU CANDIDACY.
FRANK

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