OPPOSITION SUPPORTS IMPROVED BILATERAL TIES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001976

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR NATO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SUPPORTS IMPROVED BILATERAL TIES,
NON-MILITARY ASSISTANCE IN IRAQ

REF: ZAGREB 01936

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: As she did in her meetings with
President Stjepan Mesic and PM Ivo Sanader (septel),A/S Beth
Jones stressed the importance of Croatia's role in NATO
integration and stability in the region when she met November
11 with Social Democratic Party (SDP) president Ivica Racan.
A/S Jones also asked for opposition support of an Article 98
agreement and Croatia's expanded involvement in international
military actions, explaining that our bilateral relationship
will grow as Croatia participates more in multilateral
actions. She highlighted actions Croatia could undertake to
remove barriers to Euro-Atlantic integration, such as the
capture of ICTY fugitive Ante Gotovina.


2. (C) The former prime minister said the SDP supports strong
U.S.-Croatia relations whether the party is in government or
in the opposition. Racan expressed worry about the ruling
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) government's handling of the
EU integration agenda. He said he would consider ways the
SDP as the largest opposition party could contribute to
improving relations with the U.S., but stopped short of
endorsing Article 98 or troops to Iraq. END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.

ASSISTING IN IRAQ, BUT WITHOUT COMBAT BOOTS
--------------


3. (C) Racan defended Croatia's role in the GWOT,
particularly during the SDP coalition government (in power
from 2000-2003),when Croatia decided to send troops to
support operations in Afghanistan even before the U.S. asked.
When he mentioned Croatia signing the Vilnius statement, he
motioned toward his then-FM, Tonino Picula, sitting at his
side. "This is the Foreign Minister who was almost hung," he
said. According to Racan, the Vilnius statement sparked a
fierce public reaction that his government underestimated, as
Croatians still recovering from war spoke out against sending
troops outside their country's borders.


4. (C) The SDP supports non-military assistance to the effort
in Iraq, according to Racan, and his government considered
some options a year ago. While he didn't directly oppose
contributing forces under UNSCR 1546 for UN security during
election preparations, he said he could not foresee a
decision in which Croatian troops would go to Iraq. On
Article 98, Racan noted that during his government, the
opposition (the now-ruling Croatian Democratic Union - HDZ)
linked the issue to the ICTY, supporting an Article 98
agreement with the U.S. as justification for their opposition
to cooperation with the ICTY.

INTEGRATION, PUBLIC OPINION, AND THE HDZ GOVERNMENT
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Racan said he was worried about the dramatic drop in
public support for EU and NATO membership (now both below 50
percent) since the HDZ took power in December 2003, saying it
could seriously limit the GoC's maneuvering room in EU
negotiations. He attributed the dip to the HDZ's tendency to
blame every tough decision on international pressure rather
than presenting reforms as in Croatia's interest. He claimed
this is the price the country pays for a HDZ government
pursuing policies that its voter base does not support. Next
week, the opposition will propose a set of principles in
Parliament that Croatia should stand on in EU negotiations,
as the GoC has not put forward any.


6. (C) According to Racan, internal HDZ opposition to reform
has kept the Sanader government from advancing reform
legislation. He also cited the conflict-of-interest scandal
surrounding FM Miomir Zuzul (reftel) as damaging to Croatian
credibility within the EU.

"IT'S GOOD TO BE THE OPPOSITION"
--------------

7. (C) COMMENT: Racan and his party seem content to sit back
and let the HDZ pursue essentially the same pro-EU/NATO
agenda the SDP government pursued. According to Racan, the
current government's work on integration has helped temper
European skepticism about the HDZ and Croatia in general.
And while SDP strategists fear the HDZ government will leave
important reforms left undone, some issues, such as
Tudjman-era nationalism and ICTY cooperation, can only be
resolved under a HDZ government. END COMMENT.


8. (U) A/S Jones cleared this cable.
FRANK


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