MESIC RE-ELECTION ALL BUT CERTAIN, HDZ IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001601

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: MESIC RE-ELECTION ALL BUT CERTAIN, HDZ IN
DAMAGE-CONTROL MODE

REF: ZAGREB 01571

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.5 (b) & (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: As the most popular Croatian
politician by a double-digit margin with no realistic
opponent, President Stjepan Mesic is almost assured of
coasting to re-election at year's end. Mesic has opposed key
U.S. initiatives (troops to Iraq and Article 98),and is not
expected to change in a second term, but he has otherwise
been a positive force for Euro-Atlantic integration. His
likely re-election is a welcome sign of solid public support
for centrist politics in Croatia.

2. (C) The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ),which
has yet to name a presidential candidate, seems to have given
up hopes of unseating Mesic and is focusing instead on
minimizing the damage the presidential campaign could have on
the HDZ's showing in local elections expected in May 2005
(reftel). Having reached the end of any honeymoon it might
have enjoyed after coming to power in November 2003, the HDZ
faces simmering public dissatisfaction with government and is
late to select a candidate. Seeing no benefit in a lopsided
loss to Mesic, some HDZ leaders ask whether the party should
back any nominee at all. Public support for potential
candidates from within government is lukewarm at best,
recently prompting the party to commission a poll of 2,000
HDZ voters regarding who should be their presidential
candidate. Speculation about names from academia and
athletics indicate the HDZ likely sees any candidate it puts
up against Mesic as a sacrificial lamb; the eventual
candidate is unlikely to be closely or historically
associated with the party. Science, Education and Sport
Minister Dragan Primorac, one of the more popular government
figures and not an HDZ member, could be a compromise choice.
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

FIVE MORE YEARS: PRESIDENT MESIC ON ROAD TO RE-ELECTION
--------------


3. (U) With support pledged or expected from essentially all
of Croatia,s opposition parties, including the Social
Democratic Party (SDP),the Croatian People's Party (HNS),
and the Liberal, Peasants' and Istrian Parties (LS, HSS, and
IDS),local analysts agree that barring a dramatic change in
circumstances, the contest to be called between December 18
and January 18 is Mesic's election to lose. His only
declared opponent to date is Slaven Letica of the right
fringe Croatian Party of Rights (HSP),which consistently
polls in the single digits. Current polls suggest Mesic may
achieve the required simple majority in the first round of
the election, eliminating the need for a second round two
weeks later.


4. (U) Constitutional changes during Mesic's term reduced
presidential powers significantly from the era of Franjo
Tudjman, reshaping the office into a traditional Head of
State. Mesic, however, retains important foreign policy
influence through ambassadorial and intelligence service
appointments as well as in his role as Commander-in-Chief of
the Croatian Armed Forces.

HDZ TURNS TO THE MAN ON THE STREET
--------------


5. (C) HDZ leaders seem perplexed by the presidential race.
Fiscal realities have de-railed several of the party's key
campaign promises, including pension reform and tax relief,
and a few controversial government decisions (notably the
razing of houses constructed without permits and a traffic
law setting a blood alcohol limit of zero) have party
strategists nervous about public support. A stunning
municipal by-election loss to the SDP in Pozega in central
Slavonia this week despite high-level campaign support from
Zagreb has only added to HDZ nail biting.


6. (U) Rumors have circulated for weeks about HDZ
candidates ranging from Deputy PM Andrija Hebrang and Speaker
of Parliament Vladimir Seks to MFA Miomir Zuzul, Minister of
Science, Education and Sport Dragan Primorac, and PM Ivo
Sanader himself, but the prospect of being selected as the
HDZ presidential nominee seems increasingly like a bad card
to draw. Early favorite Jadranka Kosor, Deputy PM and
Minister of Family, Veterans Affairs and Intergenerational
Solidarity, went from media darling in early summer to being
heckled from the stage at a public celebration for Olympic
medallists in late August. Perhaps prophetically, one of the


guests of honor at that event was Lino Cervar, first-time MP
and coach of Croatia's gold medal handball team ) the most
recent name to surface in HDZ's search for an appealing
candidate.


7. With the press speculating that Croatia,s largest party
has no match for Mesic, members are likely to insist in the
HDZ's upcoming poll that any candidate is better than none.
HDZ leaders, to distance themselves from the seemingly
inevitable loss, are likely to choose a candidate whose HDZ
ties are not deep. Science minister Primorac could fill the
bill: although almost certain to lose against Mesic, he would
run a credible race (polls show he is one of the more popular
members of the government) and because he lacks long-term
ties to HDZ, would cost the party little.
FRANK


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