OPPOSITION OPENS A SMALL WINDOW FOR

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000975

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION OPENS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
DIALOGUE, APRIL 27 DEMONSTRATIONS KEY

REFS: A) Yerevan 880 B) Yerevan 947


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Against the backdrop of the opposition call
for "the last stand" on April 27, National Assembly
Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan has called a meeting with
the opposition to discuss the current political
situation. The opposition rally and likely march
April 27, and the government's response to it, will
likely determine the nature of the political
dialogue (or lack thereof) for the near term. End
Summary.

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BAGHDASARYAN TRYING TO MEDIATE
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3. (SBU) (SBU) In his April 23 press conference
National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan (and
senior member of the governing coalition) offered to
meet with opposition leaders April 26 and also
condemned the authorities' heavy-handed tactics
against the opposition. Baghdasaryan used a power-
point presentation to describe the chain of events
since the 2003 elections that he believed had led to
current political impasse. He criticized the
government for overreacting to the current political
situation, saying, "The guillotine is not the best
means of treating dandruff." The Speaker noted that
the escalating confrontation could have serious
consequences, namely Armenia's expulsion from the
Council of Europe.

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OPPOSITION AGREES TO ATTEND MEETING
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4. (SBU) Opposition leaders told us that they would
send two representatives to meet with National
Assembly (NA) Speaker Baghdasaryan in the evening of
April 26. Baghdasaryan and senior coalition members
of the NA told the Ambassador April 24 that they
were trying to broker a discussion in order to move
the political process back into the "political
sphere" rather than let the situation devolve into a
police matter.

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APRIL 27 DEMONSTRATIONS WILL BE KEY
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5. (SBU) Opposition leaders tell us that they have
not yet decided exactly what they will do tomorrow
(April 27) when they gather to demonstrate, but
every indication we have leads us to believe that
they intend to march on the Presidential Palace.
They have announced plans in the press to encircle
the Presidential Palace and maintain their positions
so that the President will not have access when he
returns from a European trip later this week. As
the Foreign Minister announced to the diplomatic
corps (septel),the GOAM has clearly laid down a
line for the opposition -- government and opposition
behavior over the course of the next 24 to 48 hours
will be crucial in setting the scene for either
political discourse or possible violence.
WALKER