GOAM WARNING THE OPPOSITION: OSKANIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000973

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: GOAM WARNING THE OPPOSITION: OSKANIAN
CONVOKES THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS

REFS: A) Yerevan 947; b) Yerevan 880


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) On April 26, Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian convoked the diplomatic corps ahead of
planned opposition rallies for April 27. Reading
from a non paper (text below) Oskanian indicated
that if the opposition carries out its threat to
encircle the presidential office to prevent the
President from entering upon his return from Europe
later this week, Kocharian will invoke Article 55 of
the Constitution that, "in the event of an immediate
danger to the constitutional order," permits him to
"take measures appropriate to the situation."
Following Oskanian's statement, the newly appointed
Procurator General Aghvan Hovsepian provided the
legal framework for this potential action. In
closing Oskanian noted that this is a "seemingly
critical period in Armenian history" and called on
the diplomatic community to help the government to
"maintain stability." End Summary.

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TEXT OF GOAM NON-PAPER
--------------


3. (SBU) The English-language text of the non-paper
that Foreign Minister Oskanian gave the diplomatic
corps follows. Begin Text:

-- The opposition has been holding public rallies
and unreservedly calling for the president's
resignation, to be achieved forcefully if necessary.

-- Since such calls are unconstitutional, the
organizers have been denied permits to hold public
gatherings. Nevertheless, rallies have been held
and for the most part, without interference by the
authorities.

-- On the night of April 12-13, the opposition went
beyond words, and disturbed the peace and the normal
activities of the citizenry. At that time, the
police had no choice but to take steps to disperse
the crowd.

-- We appreciate the concern and attention of the
international community to these events, have taken
note of their content, and understand fully the
clear call for restraint and negotiations.

-- What was missing from the statements of the
international community was a clear condemnation of
resorting to forceful change of government. This
has been understood by some in the opposition as
tacit affirmation of their positions.

-- Although the various elements of the opposition
have united, and although they have been attempting
to rally public support for a whole year, those
gathered for these demonstrations remain a very
small minority of the population, having at no time
exceeded 7,000 or 8,000, by even the most liberal
counts.

-- The opposition has rejected all calls by the
members of the ruling coalition and the government
to enter into a dialogue. The Coalition partners in
the National Assembly have offered the opposition--
which is a minority in the National Assembly--veto
rights in three of the most contentious matters that
will be placed before the assembly: electoral
reform, constitutional reform, and legislative
reform to support the anti-corruption strategy. The
opposition has rejected this offer.

-- According to our information, the opposition's
plans for the demonstration to be held on April 27
are most extreme and will inevitably result in a
confrontation with the authorities. The plan,
called Operation Ring, has also been leaked to the
press. It calls for encircling the presidential
offices from both ends of Baghramian Avenue, and
Demirchian Avenue, so that President Kocharian will
be unable to enter the building when he returns from
his European trip.

-- This action is seen by the authorities to be a
threat to the maintenance of public order. Such
action contradicts not only Armenian law but also
international norms which stress that the exercise
of freedoms carries with it duties and
responsibilities as prescribed by law, and necessary
in a democratic society in the interests of national
security and public safety.

-- If the opposition follows through with their
plan, the President will invoke Article 55/14 of the
Constitution of the Republic of Armenia which
states: "In the event of an immediate danger to the
constitutional order and upon consultations with the
president of the National Assembly and the Prime
Minister, [the President] shall take measures
appropriate to the situation and address the people
on this subject."

-- No democracy will tolerate attempts to forcefully
change constitutionally elected officials. The
opposition insists that the presidential election of
2003 was not legitimate. Yet despite observations
of irregularities, no international observer group
claimed that the results did not reflect the will of
the people. The opposition is resorting to
unconstitutional steps to pursue personal vendettas,
and does not enjoy broad-based popular support.

-- Armenia will continue to expand its democratic
institutions, go forward with its Council of Europe
obligations in reinforcing human and civil rights.

-- For Armenia to be able to further deepen these
processes and systems, we need an opposition that is
constructively engaged. Unfortunately, the
leadership of Armenia's opposition has taken an
entirely different path.

-- The Armenian government continues to call on
members of the opposition to resist unconstitutional
acts and not to resort to violence to achieve their
aims. The rights of journalists and those
peacefully assembled will be respected. Those who
have heretofore acted unlawfully and prevented the
right of journalists to free access are being
investigated and will be punished within the
provisions of the law.

-- The Armenian government calls on the
international community to understand the causes of
the current situation and engage positively in
trying to prevent such excessive, unrealistic,
legally unacceptable and politically baseless
machinations.

Yerevan
26 April 2004

End Text.
WALKER