WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? THE ARMENIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000947

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? THE ARMENIAN
BODY POLITIC STALLED FOR THE MOMENT

REFS: A) YEREVAN 880 B) YEREVAN 893 C) YEREVAN 901


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Now that the dust has settled, the
government has released most opposition activists,
and subsequent rallies have proceeded without
incident, the lack of genuine opposition unity or a
realistic game plan is becoming more apparent. By
insisting that President Kocharian resign and
calling for a referendum for which there is no legal
basis (septel) the opposition has left itself little
political space in which to maneuver. End Summary.

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RECENT RALLIES MODEST, MOSTLY CALM
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3. (SBU) Approximately 3000 opposition supporters
demonstrated at 6:00 p.m. on April 16, with the
rally proceeding for ninety minutes in steady rain,
with opposition leaders Stepan Demirchian, Artashes
Geghamian and Aram Sargsyan urging their supporters
to keep up the pressure on President Kocharian, and
condemning the police actions against the opposition
during the week. Opposition supporters had planned
to hold the unauthorized rally in Opera Square, but
were turned away by police who had scheduled a
concert in the Opera to mark National Police Day.
The demonstrators then marched on the sidewalk to
the nearby park in front on the National Manuscript
Museum without incident. Approximately 30 police
(wearing regular uniforms, not riot gear) kept the
demonstrators from spilling into the street. One
police officer told us that he had been instructed
by his superiors to not carry his baton or any other
weapon. The rally concluded at approximately 8:00
p.m., and the demonstrators dispersed without
incident.


4. (SBU) The rally April 21 attracted some 5000 to
7000 supporters, who listened to several hours of
speeches and then proceeded to march in a roughly
one-mile circuit around downtown Yerevan. Although
the demonstrators seriously impeded traffic during
their march in the streets officials did not
interfere in any way: we even observed the police
stopping traffic so the demonstrators could pass
safely through intersections. By the end of the
march, fewer than 1000 protestors remained, with the
evening ending peacefully (the march concluded at
slightly after 9:30 p.m. local time).

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OPPOSITION SPLIT ON THE NEXT STEPS
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5. (SBU) The opposition is split on whether or not
to carry through on its call for a rally and march
on April 24, Armenian Genocide Memorial Day.
Sources within the opposition tell us that Stepan
Demirchian and Vazgen Manukian oppose the plan to
march in force past the Presidential Palace to the
Genocide Memorial, believing that any attempt to
politicize the memorial would backfire. According
to these same opposition staffers, Aram Sargsian and
Artashes Geghamian, on the other hand, are anxious
to provoke a confrontation with the authorities and
are pushing hard to organize a highly public rally
and march. We believe that, were the opposition to
attempt to use Armenia's most solemn holiday for
political gain, the potential for increased tensions
and possible violence could be significant.

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COMMENT: NO PLAN FOR WHERE TO GO FROM HERE
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6. (SBU) We believe that the opposition, never
genuinely unified, is already starting to show its
ideological cracks. With Demirchian and Manukian
lining up against their colleagues more inclined to
confrontation, Sargsian and Geghamian, we see little
evidence of agreement even on tactical issues.
Kocharian won't need to pack his bags just yet.
ORDWAY