KOCHARIAN LOOKING FOR A WAY FORWARD, OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000879

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: KOCHARIAN LOOKING FOR A WAY FORWARD, OPPOSITION
INTRANSIGENT FOR NOW


Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

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KOCHARIAN SEEKING ADVICE
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1. (C) Following the forceful break-up of the opposition
demonstration at roughly 2:00 a.m. April 13 (septel) and the
subsequent detentions, Kocharian convoked the Ambassador,
saying, "I invited you in order to consult with you on the
internal political situation." Although Kocharian did not
appear to be entirely ready yet to move forward, and
mentioned his intention to have the Prosecutor-General follow
up with criminal cases against opposition figures, he did
actively seek the opportunity to take our advice on board.
The Ambassador urged him in the strongest possible terms to
cease the detentions of political opponents and to forego
criminal cases against them. Ambassador Ordway emphasized
that the government can avoid making the situation worse by
choosing not to pursue political leaders with criminal
charges (even if they have allegedly committed technically
illegal acts).

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OPPOSITION IN A FURY, UNWILLING TO TALK
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2. (C) Notwithstanding the fact that the opposition
demonstrators and leaders painted themselves into a corner
with Monday night's demonstration blocking one of Yerevan's
major streets by not simply declaring "victory" and going
home at dark, or at any other point earlier in the eight
hours that the government tolerated the rally, they are livid
at what has been happening since the rally was forcibly
broken up early Tuesday morning. We have spoken with
opposition leaders from across the spectrum, and it is clear
that they are unwilling to enter into any sort of dialogue
for the moment. The Ambassador spoke by telephone during the
course of the day with Stepan Demirchian and Artashes
Geghamian, the two principal opposition leaders, as well as
several other major opposition figures. He also spoke with
the Speaker of Parliament and the Minister of Justice. The
opposition leaders were in an absolute fury over what had
transpired. While none of the leaders had any clear idea of
where to go at this juncture, they rejected categorically the
Ambassador's suggestion of dialogue and engagement with the
authorities. Both the Speaker and the Justice Minister, by
contrast, strongly endorsed the need for a political dialogue
and moving the current confrontation from the streets into a
constructive venue, such as the Parliament.


3. (C) The opposition faces insurmountable odds in their
campaign to oust President Kocharian. Although they appear
sincere in their belief that the majority of the country
supports them and their current course of aggressively
seeking Kocharian's departure, neither we nor any other
objective outside observer shares that view. Moreover, the
opposition's inability to agree on any positive policy
platform undercuts their ability to appeal to, let alone
consolidate, general popular dissatisfaction with Kocharian.
They now find themselves in a blind alley, with few
attractive options.

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BURDEN ON THE PRESIDENT
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4. (C) This circumstance puts the burden on President
Kocharian to create sufficient political space to allow the
opposition the option of turning from the streets to a
political process. It appears that at least some, and
probably all, of the coalition members are willing and eager
to engage in such a dialogue. This will require the
President to back off, and the opposition to overcome their
current outraged hostility and return to the political arena.
ORDWAY