KOCHARIAN'S INNER CIRCLE: ACCESS BUT LIMITED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000353

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: KOCHARIAN'S INNER CIRCLE: ACCESS BUT LIMITED
INFLUENCE

REF: 03 YEREVAN 2975

Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (c) President Kocharian has a small inner circle with
direct access to him and the potential to influence his
thinking on foreign policy matters. Within this inner circle
are Foreign Minister Oskanian, Minister of Defense Sargsian,
Head of State TV Harutyunian, Presidential Chief of Staff
Tumanyan, and First Assistant to the President Gevorkian.
While these advisors all have essentially unfettered access
to the President, it is doubtful that any of them is in a
position to influence his decisions: on the contrary, their
positions either coincide with his or are derived from his.
END SUMMARY.

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GEVORGIAN: NOT QUITE AN EMINENCE GRISE?
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2. (c) Armen Gevorgian (born in Yerevan in 1973),First
Assistant to the President, is essentially always at
Kocharian's side. While his access is unparalleled and some
in Yerevan refer to him as an "eminence grise," he does not
appear to influence the President so much as serve as a foil
for him. Intensely loyal, Gevorgian joined Kocharian's
office in 1997, while Kocharian was still Prime Minister, and
moved with him to the President's office. From 1990-1997
Gevorgian studied at St. Petersburg's Institute of Public
Administration, and holds a Ph.D. in Pedagogy. He recently
married a medical student, and speaks excellent Russian as
well as some English.

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SARGSIAN: A FINGER IN EVERY PIE
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3. (c) Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsian, long-time
confidant and Presidential ally, has close economic ties with
many of President Kocharian's interests (reftel). Born in
1954 in Stepanakert, Sargsian shares with Kocharian and his
closest confidants the deep conviction that N-K must be
protected at all costs. His ties to the military are crucial
to Kocharian's power base, and his and the President's
beliefs are most likely to coincide.

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HARUTYUNIAN: KEEPING INFORMATION ON TRACK
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4. (c) Head of State TV (and former Presidential Chief of
Staff) Aleksan Harutyunian is an intensely loyal, long-time
friend of Kocharian. Born in 1965 in Karabakh, his family
moved to Yerevan in the early 1970s. Active in Armenia's
independence movement, Harutyunian briefly worked in the
Presidential Administration in 1992 before being assigned to
the Armenian Embassy in Paris. Harutyunian took a position
as Karabakh Permanent Representative in Armenia in 1995
before joining Kocharian's staff in 1997, and served as Chief
of Staff 1998-2000. In early 2000 Harutyunian was detained
for several months in connection with the October 27, 1999
parliamentary shootings, and allegedly tortured in jail.
Harutyunian was appointed head of Armenian State TV in
January of 2003, following the December 29, 2002
assassination of the previous holder of that position, Tigran
Naghdalian.

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TUMANYAN: AN EFFECTIVE GATEKEEPER
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5. (c) Presidential Chief of Staff Artashes Tumanyan, born in
1949, has been active in Armenian politics since 1990. A
former deputy speaker of parliament, 1992-1995, Tumanyan
headed the Armenian tax inspectorate from 1997-1999.
Although Tumanyan is seen as a close friend of Kocharian, and
can limit other people's access, he doesn't exert a great
deal of influence of his own. Most recently he has been
Kocharian's principal interlocutor on matters dealing with
the Lincy Foundation and its extensive infrastructure
projects in Armenia. Although he does not have as high a
public profile as Serzh Sargsian, he is nonetheless widely
known to the public. The Ambassador spent a day in October
2003 travelling with Tumanyan to visit a number of
Lincy-funded projects. Tumanyan, who was driving, made
occasional stops to speak to villagers--all of whom
immediately recognized him and proceeded to engage him on
local concerns.
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OSKANIAN: TOES THE PARTY LINE
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6. (c) Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, although he appears
to have limited influence on the President's thinking, at
least can generally be counted on to accurately relay both
the content and tone of foreign governments' messages. A
former Tufts professor and former U.S. citizen, Oskanian is a
savvy interlocutor, with good access to the President, but
with only limited influence. Oskanian is fully capable of
thinking "outside the box," but cannot always deliver the
President when it comes time for a decision. Oskanian,
however, has been given more running room on improving
relations with Turkey--despite the fact that Kocharian when
speaking to us on the subject is decidedly more pessimistic.

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COMMENT
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7. (c) While all of these men have immediate and liberal
access to the President, as the President's Special Advisor
for Economics Nercissiantz told us recently, "Kocharian
doesn't listen to anyone." Nercissiantz noted that he has
found giving Kocharian, an avid reader, thought-provoking
English-language books to read is the best way to open the
President's mind to new ways of viewing a particular issue.
ORDWAY