ARMENIA'S CHOD TALKS ABOUT IRAQ, AZERBAIJAN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002597

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR. DAS LAURA KENNEDY, EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC AND
EUR/RPM
DEFENSE FOR OSD/EURASIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR MOPS AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S CHOD TALKS ABOUT IRAQ, AZERBAIJAN AND
CLOSER TIES WITH THE U.S.


Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In his first meeting with the Ambassador,
General-Colonel Mikhael Harutiunyan expressed Armenia's
readiness to send its military contingent to Iraq once the
government had completed the necessary review and approval.
He commented on the budgetary challenges facing the MOD and
the attempts of both Armenia and Azerbaijan to increase their
military capabilities. The Ambassador inquired about the
apparent acceleration of an arms race in the South Caucasus..
Harutiunyan repeated Armenia's desire to spend all of its
available FMF funds on modernizing its military
communications system. End Summary.


2. (U) On December 1, the Ambassador paid his initial
office call on Armenia's First Deputy Minister of Defense and
Chief of the Main Staff, General-Colonel Mikhael Harutiunyan.
With Harutiunyan was General-Major Mikhael Melkonyan, Head
of the MOD's Department of Foreign Relations and Military
Cooperation. DATT and ODC Chief accompanied the Ambassador.

U.S. Visit Praised
--------------


3. (C) Harutiunyan opened by stating his gratitude to the
U.S. for arranging his recent counterpart visit with the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and proudly showed the
Ambassador the Legion of Merit he was awarded during the
visit. He commented on the importance of the visit in
developing deeper U.S.- Armenian military relations. He
praised the professionalism of the U.S. generals he met,
noting that although U.S. generals represent the most
powerful military in the world, they are not overbearing and
Harutiunyan felt he was treated as an equal. He contrasted
this with the attitude of Russian generals, whom he described
as "rude."

Court Ruling on Iraq Deployment Postponed
--------------


4. (C) Harutiunyan reported that the Constitutional Court
would begin to review the terms of the planned deployment to
Iraq on December 8. He added that the Armenian soldiers are
fully trained at ready to deploy at any moment. He mentioned
that Armenia is discussing the possibility of its soldiers
using the trucks left behind when Hungary pulls its
transportation unit out of Iraq. He seemed to favor this
option, noting that the Hungarian trucks were newer and more
capable than the trucks Armenia is planning to deploy.
Harutiunyan acknowledged that many Armenians are concerned
about the safety of Armenian communities in the Middle East
should the deployment go forward and stated that political
opposition will try to use this to score points against
President Kocharian.

The Military Balance
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador asked Harutiunyan to comment on what
could be perceived as an arms race developing between Armenia
and Azerbaijan. Harutiunyan acknowledged that Azerbaijan has
superior manpower and financial resources. Armenia is
therefore choosing to focus its resources on maintaining a
high degree of training and readiness in the military. He
emphasized that the MOD will continue to modernize its
military hardware, such as T-72 tanks and BMP armored
infantry fighting vehicles to make them more mobile and
capable. He confirmed that the MOD is in the process of
acquiring 10 SU-25 ground attack aircraft from Slovakia.


6. (C) The Ambassador then mentioned that Defense Minister
Sargsyan had recently called for an increase in the defense
budget for 2005. Harutiunyan stated that these increase were
necessary to provide across-the-board pay increases for the
military and to compensate for the rise in costs associated
with the fall in the value of the dollar. He mentioned that
this has affected prices in Armenia in general, but singled
out fuel as one area of particular concern.


7. (C) Harutiunyan stated that the Azerbaijani military was
in no position to undertake offensive operations, since it
did not have the combat power to overtake Armenian defensive
positions that have been steadily improved over the course of
12 years. Because of the entrenched positions on both sides,
he predicted that whichever side initiated offensive actions
in would lose any conflict. Harutiunyan added that Armenia
would not give Azerbaijan a pretext for restarting the
conflict, but warned that Azerbaijan would attack as soon as
it felt confident in the possibility of victory.


8. (C) Harutiunyan voiced his concern that a relatively
minor incident along the line of contact could start a chain
reaction which could lead to renewed hostilities. At this
point he noted that Azerbaijani forces had captured three
Armenian soldiers who got lost in the fog along the
line-of-contact three days earlier. He claimed that
Azerbaijan was not responding to Armenian attempts to discuss
the release of the soldiers. (Note: This is not the first
time this has occurred; in a follow-up call, MOD officials
told us that the three Armenian soldiers are now in Baku.
Another Armenian soldier who wandered from his post was also
taken by Azeri forces, claims the MOD. Armenia has one Azeri
soldier in custody and claimed it sought to make an exchange,
but with no success. End note.)


9. (C) Harutiunyan claimed Baku was increasing its military
budget for 2005 by USD 57 million and that Azerbaijan was
receiving military support from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
He alleged that Azerbaijan had already exceeded its
CFE-imposed limits for tanks by 50 percent and artillery by
300 percent.

Continued Focus on Military Communications
--------------


10. (C) Harutiunyan took the opportunity to repeat his
desire for the U.S. to permit Armenia to focus all of its
available FMF funding on modernizing its military
communications system until the project is complete. He
criticized the suggestion that Armenia consider spending FMF
on its peacekeeping battalion before the communications
modernization is finished, stating that this modernization
effort should be completed as quickly as possible due to the
danger of maintaining two incompatible communications
systems. After ODC Chief noted that the FMF program was not
designed for long-term equipment procurement, he contended
that the U.S. agreed in principle to allow Armenia to
implement this project when Armenia declared its intention to
fully modernize its military communications two year ago.
Perhaps not noting the contradiction in his request,
Harutiunyan repeated a request for the U.S. to help the MOD
develop a peacekeeping brigade.
EVANS