RECENT STATEMENTS SUGGEST COOLER LOCAL TEMPERATURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002494

SIPDIS

EUR/CACEN FOR E. SIDEREAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS IZ AM
SUBJECT: RECENT STATEMENTS SUGGEST COOLER LOCAL TEMPERATURE
ON PENDING IRAQ DEPLOYMENT

REF: YEREVAN 21666

Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Recent statements by high-level policymakers and
opinion pieces in the local media suggest that there may be
growing opposition to the pending deployment of Armenian
peacekeeping support to Iraq. Reports of a car bomb
explosion November 9 near an Armenian church in Iraq
re-ignited a flurry of discussion in Armenia's capital and
within the Armenian Diaspora community as to the potential
dangers to Armenian communities in Iraq and the greater
Middle East should Armenians join coalition forces in Iraq.
In contrast to earlier criticism from smaller NGOs or
marginalized political leaders in the opposition (reftel),
recent remarks have come from the offices of the Prime
Minister and the leadership of the governing coalition's
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF-"Dashnaksutyun")
Party. A member of the National Assembly (NA) told us
recently that the GOAM has not consulted as deeply within the
legislature as it should and that some within the NA are
starting to waver on the issue. Despite continued
reassurances from the President, Foreign Minister and Defense
Minister that the GOAM will stay its course (and the
existence of enough ruling coalition votes in the legislature
to pass such a measure notwithstanding),the road to a
favorable vote in the National Assembly is likely to be less
smooth than it was when Armenia first committed to deploy.
End Summary.

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PM, DASHNAKS LESS UPBEAT ABOUT IRAQ DEPLOYMENT
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2. (C) Recent statements by high-level policymakers and
accompanying opinion pieces in the local media suggest that
there may be growing opposition to the pending deployment of
Armenian non-combat support troops to Iraq. In contrast to
earlier criticism from smaller NGOs and marginalized
political leaders in the opposition (ref),recent remarks
have come from serious political players in Armenia's
capital. Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan's late October
comments to local media that "we may or may not go ahead with
the deployment" was the first time that a high-ranking GOAM
official had expressed doubt about the viability of sending
Armenian support to coalition forces in Iraq. A press
conference following recent party meetings of the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF-"Dashnaksutyun") included calls
for caution, suggesting that an Armenian deployment could
turn Armenian communities in the Middle East into targets for
terrorist vendettas. The local media latched onto both these
statements while reiterating earlier comments by opposition
leader Artashes Geghamian and local NGOs that criticized the
GOAM's decision to deploy.

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CAR BOMB IN IRAQ RE-IGNITES DEBATE
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3. (C) The November 9 explosion of a car bomb outside an
Armenian Church in Iraq re-ignited local debate about the
potential pros and cons of an Iraq deployment. Both local
and Diaspora-based media outlets were quick to point to the
bombing as a possible warning to the GOAM by terrorist groups
not to join coalition forces. Local media published excerpts
from open letters by Archbishop Avak Asadourian,
representative of the Armenian Apostolic Church in Iraq, to
President Robert Kocharian and Armenia's parliamentary
leadership criticizing the decision to deploy Armenian
troops, linking it to safety concerns for the estimated
20,000 Armenians living in Iraq. A local spokesman for the
Armenian Apostolic Church, normally moderate in his approach
to the subject, told us that there were growing concerns
following that bombing that a deployment of Armenian forces
could lead to similar attacks in the near future.

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DIASPORA PUSHES ON PARLIAMENT TO THINK TWICE
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4. (C) Recent meetings of international Diaspora groups have
produced unofficial "resolutions" that the Diaspora should
raise its concerns with contacts in the National Assembly. A
worldwide meeting of Armenian women in Geneva in late
October, for example, resulted in telephone calls to MPs
concerning the safety of Armenian communities in places like
Syria, Lebanon and Egypt should the National Assembly ratify
the decision to deploy forces. A recent worldwide meeting of
one Diaspora group reportedly included one-on-one
"consultations" with GOAM leaders to "see if they were really
going to go through" with the pledged deployment. One MP
told us recently that the GOAM has not consulted as deeply
within the legislature as it should and that these statements
are making some within the NA waver on the issue.

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GOAM STILL STANDS FIRM, REASSURES US
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5. (C) The President, Foreign Minister, and Defense Minister
continue to reassure USG officials that enough political
capital exists in the National Assembly to push through
ratification of the deployment. NA Speaker Baghdasaryan
publicly responded to concerns in late October saying that
the humanitarian nature of the planned deployment and
continued USG assistance would help the vote pass without
problem. While the governing coalition technically has
enough votes to ratify deployment (even given the ongoing
opposition boycott),the recent statements by the Prime
Minister and Dashnak leadership reveal potential fissures
that could make the upcoming vote a more delicate initiative
than it first appeared.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) We will continue to engage MPs and GOAM leadership
privately on the importance of support for coalition forces
but do not now plan on aggressive programs of Public
Diplomacy to support deployment. When DAS Kennedy met
President Kocharian in October, he asked that we curb such
efforts as they would "likely be counterproductive." End
comment.
EVANS