PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION: POWERPLAY TUG-OF-WAR,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002114

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION: POWERPLAY TUG-OF-WAR,
PRESIDENTIAL WEATHERVANE

REF: YEREVAN 1938

Classified By: DCM AF Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The National Assembly Speaker-backed candidate won a
controversial parliamentary by-election September 19 in a
Yerevan suburb after the only remaining candidate (backed by
Armenia's Procurator General) withdrew from the race only a
few days earlier. Analysts viewed the election, which had to
be re-run after accusations of mass irregularities, as a
prelude to Armenia's next presidential election, highlighting
a power struggle between NA Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan and
Procurator General Aghvan Hovsepian to determine which camp
had both high-level and popular support. President Robert
Kocharian's hand was evident in the run-up to the election;
neither party denied rumors that an early September meeting
between the President and NA Speaker produced an agreement to
have the Procurator General's candidate withdraw in exchange
for future cooperation on upcoming legislative items
important to Kocharian. Observers from "It's Your Choice" (a
USG-supported NGO) noted fewer visible violations during the
second balloting, but highlighted continued administrative
glitches and problems with unauthorized police presence in
most polling places. For the moment, dividing the proverbial
power pie appears to remain more important than the
democratic process. End Summary.

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BAGHDASARYAN'S CANDIDATE WINS AFTER PG'S MAN DROPS OUT
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2. (C) Artak Sargsian (backed by National Assembly Speaker
and Orinats Yerkir party chairman Artur Baghdasaryan)
defeated Araik Hairapetian (backed by Procurator General
Aghvan Hovsepian) in the September 19 parliamentary
by-election re-run in a Yerevan suburb. The win increased
the current number of Orinats-Yerkir (Country of Law) members
of parliament from 21 to 22. The election was re-run after
the Central Election Commission declared the initial
elections void due to an extremely small winning margin and
following accusations of mass irregularities during the
original August 29 balloting (reftel). In a surprise move,
Hairapetian "unofficially" withdrew from the race on
September 16. His name, however, still appeared on the
ballot and he managed to grab 37 percent of the votes cast.
Both candidates, well-connected businessmen with ties to
light industry in central Armenia, were relatively unknown in
political arenas leading up to the election. Their
high-profile backers, both of whom have made veiled
statements about their presidential aspirations in 2007,
dominated news reports and speculation leading up to the
election. Most viewed the election as the first real
indication of their relative power, both at the ballot box
and among the current political elite.

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KOCHARIAN-BAGHDASARYAN MEETING SETTLES THE MATTER?
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3. (C) President Robert Kocharian's hand was evident in the
run-up to the election. Neither party, nor the President's
office, denied rumors that an early September meeting between
the President and NA Speaker produced an agreement to have
the Procurator General's candidate withdraw in exchange for
future cooperation on upcoming legislative items important to
Kocharian. In fact, Kocharian's office confirmed that the
meeting had taken place and that the issue was among the
topics they discussed.


4. (C) Mikael Danielyan, Chairman of Armenia's Helsinki
Commission, told DCM on September 22 that the election was
"typical of our level of democratic development." He added
that the word on the street is that Kocharian agreed that the
Procurator General's candidate would receive an appointment
as a Deputy Minister by year's end in exchange for his
withdrawal from the race. Embassy sources close to Kocharian
reported that the electoral stand-off put Kocharian in an
awkward position that threatened to disrupt the delicate
balance that he maintains within the GOAM. By finding a
mutually acceptable outcome for both the Speaker and
Procurator General's office, Kocharian reportedly avoided a
dissolution of power before the other legislative coalition
forces -- the Republican Party and ARF Dashnaksutyun Parties
-- were politically forced to take sides on the matter.

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BALLOTING GRADUALLY IMPROVES, BUT PROBLEMS REMAIN
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5. (SBU) Observers from "It's Your Choice" said there were
fewer visible violations during the second balloting on
September 19, but noted continued administrative glitches and
problems with unauthorized police presence in most polling
places. They also cited evidence of bribery of voters and
election officials, although these observations were not part
of their comments to the press. Local representatives of
international offices in Yerevan had clearly hoped for
greater improvement following last year's problematic
presidential and parliamentary elections.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) While the September 19 election did little to change
the balance of power within the National Assembly, it appears
to have slightly increased the value of Baghdasaryan's
political stock. Even though Kocharian appears to have
brokered the final deal, the withdrawal of the Procurator
General's candidate indicates that Baghdasaryan was either
more successful in persuading Kocharian to side with his
candidate or already had more of the President's favor in
comparison to the PG. Either way, and despite the rumored
concession prize of a deputy minister spot for the PG's
candidate, Baghdasaryan emerges as the real winner of this
particular election.


7. (C) The reduction in violations of electoral procedures
during this poll should not be interpreted as a step forward
in democratic practices, but merely the absence of a close
race. Power structures within the GOAM demonstrated that
this election in Armenia was still more about dividing the
spoils of power and influence than about the democratic
process.
EVANS