MODIFIED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE MOVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001885

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL, EUR/ACE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: MODIFIED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE MOVES
TO PARLIAMENT

REF: 03 YEREVAN 1066

Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The three parties of the pro-government ruling
coalition forwarded a package of proposed constitutional
amendments to Armenia's National Assembly (NA) in mid-August
for discussion and approval during the upcoming legislative
session. This step was the latest in the continuing saga of
Council of Europe (CoE)-mandated constitutional modifications
-- via nationwide referendum -- that the GOAM wants to
complete before the CoE's June 2005 deadline. The package
proposes, inter alia, prolonging parliamentary terms of
office to five years, reducing the number of parliamentarians
elected in single-mandate districts and removing the current
ban on dual citizenship. Early reactions by opposition
parliamentarians suggest that debate over the package will
dominate the upcoming legislative season and could become the
opposition's next rallying point. While far from leveling
the playing field between the executive and legislative
branches, the proposed amendments, and a promised public
discussion of their merits and shortcomings, have the
potential for positive impact. End Summary.

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COALITION APPLAUDS AMENDMENTS AS THEY MOVE TO NA
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2. (C) The three parties of the pro-government ruling
coalition forwarded a package of proposed constitutional
amendments to Armenia's National Assembly in mid-August.
This step was the latest in the continuing saga of
CoE-mandated constitutional modifications -- via nationwide
referendum -- that the GOAM wants to complete before the
CoE's June 2005 deadline. This is the second time the GOAM
has pushed for constitutional amendments. The previous
referendum, held in tandem with the 2003 parliamentary
elections, failed to garner enough votes to be adopted
(reftel). Local sources close to the CoE told us August 26
that the "jury was still out" on whether the current package
would satisfy Armenia's commitments and that they expected
there would be substantial revisions before the package was
passed by the NA and ready for a referendum.


3. (SBU) Coalition representatives, including Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF - "Dashnaksutiun") leader Armen
Rustamyan, publicly endorsed the package soon after its
release. National Assembly Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosian
(Republican Party) made no secret during recent interviews
with the press that the amendments enjoyed the parliamentary
leadership's full support as well as that of President
Kocharian. According to Torosian and others, Kocharian held
a closed-door meeting with coalition parliamentary leaders in
early August to make a push for the amendments and their
quick passage through parliament.

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PACKAGE CUTS SEATS, EXTENDS TERMS IN PARLIAMENT
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4. (U) The latest package of amendments, while varying
slightly from the 2003 version, proposes more than fifty
changes to Armenia's constitution. The most important -- and
most controversial -- amendments would reduce the number of
parliamentarians in Armenia's National Assembly from 131 to
121 by limiting the number of NA deputies representing
single-mandate districts. (Note: Armenia's NA is a mix of
deputies elected from a party list and those representing
local consitutencies. End Note) At the same time, the
amendments would lengthen parliamentarians' terms of office
from four to five years. (Note: Despite speculation in the
press earlier this summer, the amendments did not propose a
similar extension for presidential terms of office or term
limits. End Note.)

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DUAL CITIZENSHIP, EXPANDED ROLE OF OMBUDSMAN
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5. (C) Among the other notable changes proposed by the
amendment package is a reversal of Article 14 in Armenia's
current constitution that prohibits dual citizenship. While
stipulating a special law to regulate the nuances of dual
citizenship, the amendment package makes reference to
Armenia's diaspora and the need for dual citizenship given
the presence of so many Armenians abroad. (Note: The ARF
had vigorously fought against dual citizenship in the past
but, in its relatively new role as part of the governing
coalition, appears to have relented and has remained quiet on
this particular provision. ARF representatives have hinted
to us that their party's extensive funding from diaspora
sources helped push them into this more conciliatory stance.
End Note.)


6. (U) Armenia's Human Rights Ombudsman would enjoy an
expanded role under the amended constitution. Following
intense criticism by international human rights groups, the
amended constitution would mandate the Ombudsman's
appointment by the legislature instead of by the president.
In addition, the amendments grant the Ombudsman new authority
to refer laws to the Constitutional Court for revision.

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TENTATIVE REFERENDUM DATES AND OPPOSITION GRUMBLING
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7. (SBU) GOAM representatives have predicted easy passage of
the amendments by the legislature and have even gone so far
as to suggest a July 5, 2005 date for the nationwide
referendum. (Note: This date is the tenth anniversary of
Armenia's current constitution and some analysts predict the
GOAM will appeal to Armenians' patriotism to vote in favor of
the package by scheduling the vote on this day. End Note.)
Opposition leaders, however, have already begun criticizing
the package and pledging to reject it should it come to a
vote. Opposition Justice bloc leaders Aram Sargsyan and
Victor Dalakian made joint calls for parliamentarians to vote
against the amendments, calling them "cosmetic changes
proposed by an illegitimate president." In a surprise move,
however, opposition leader Artashes Geghamian has made more
conciliatory statements in public and has reportedly hinted
in private that he might return to parliament in order to
discuss the amendments.

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NEXT STEPS: VENICE COMMISSION AND PACE WILL WEIGH-IN
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8. (C) The next substantive step for the constitutional
amendments package will be review by the Council of Europe's
Venice Commission. Sources close to the commission told us
August 26 that the amendments are already under review even
though Armenia's National Assembly has not yet formally
forwarded them outside Yerevan. The parliamentary elections
significantly overshadowed the Venice Commission's commentary
on the amendments package in 2003, and analysts predict that
its recommendations will by default find a more prominent
role in the process this time around. While still early,
private indications by commission bureaucrats suggest that
the commission will not cite fundamental flaws in this latest
amendments package but will prescribe and carefully
scrutinize a broad consultative process leading up to a
future referendum. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe (PACE) will include debate over the constitutional
amendments early this Fall. Local politicians expect
discussions at PACE to be highly charged and unlikely to
concentrate on the substance of the amendments package.

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COMMENT
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9. (SBU) During August, traditionally Armenia's slowest month
for news of political events, it is no surprise that the
proposed constitutional amendments have dominated public
debate over recent weeks. In stark contrast to the approach
in 2003 (reftel),this set of amendments already enjoys the
public support of pro-Kocharian forces who approached the
topic ambivalently during the previous parliamentary
election. Now that the package has Kocharian's stamp of
approval, it seems likely that the opposition will cling to
the issue as its new rallying point -- whether or not it ends
its months-long boycott of parliament -- in what has the
potential to be a divisive set of debates once the National
Assembly reconvenes next month.


10. (C) While falling short of leveling the playing field
between Armenia's executive and legislative branches, the
proposed constitutional amendments are more than merely
cosmetic, despite the claims of some opposition leaders. The
modest structural changes will significantly add to the
legitimacy -- both perceived and actual -- of the Human
Rights Ombudsman and will grant Armenians broader access to
the Constitutional Court. These steps are not comprehensive,
but represent an important start. GOAM-promised public
debate of the amendments has the potential to engage civil
society in a positive way. As this is the first time
politicians have linked their political identities to
constitutional amendments, however, it will be tempting for
some to muscle the amendments through parliament in a rush.
The GOAM will show its serious commitment to the constitution
if it lets the debate run its course over the next few
months.
EVANS