YEREVAN REACTION TO KOCHARIAN'S JUNE 24 COUNCIL OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001439

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/PGI, EUR/SE, DRL
DEPT PASS MCC

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID AM
SUBJECT: YEREVAN REACTION TO KOCHARIAN'S JUNE 24 COUNCIL OF
EUROPE SPEECH



1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Local media reaction was mostly positive in Yerevan
following President Robert Kocharian's June 24 address to
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).
The address, which was covered widely by all local media
outlets, inspired a flurry of formal and informal commentary
among GOAM representatives, analysts and international
missions. Kocharian supporters within the GOAM were
enthusiastic about the speech and told Post that it was a
"triumph" in response to the opposition's recent criticism
of Kocharian at PACE. As expected, Armenian opposition
leaders sharply criticized the speech, particularly
Kocharian's description of the GOAM's response to recent
opposition activity. Supporters and critics alike, however,
reacted positively to Kocharian's comments regarding Nagorno-
Karabakh and the uncharacteristically nostalgic tone of his
speech. End summary.

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PRESS REPORTS GENERALLY POSITIVE
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3. (SBU) After considerable speculation in editorial pages
the preceding week, local media response to Kocharian's June
24 speech was generally positive. Two days before the
speech, Yerevan daily "Haykakan Zhamanak" coyly predicted
that Kocharian might falter in Strasbourg when faced with
hostile questions from the Azeri and Turkish delegations.
Following the speech, however, the same newspaper reported
that Kocharian gave a strong performance and congratulated
his ability to "present Armenia in the best possible light."
For the most part, local media did not draw connections
between Kocharian's speech and the Council of Europe's
resolution on Armenia. Instead, coverage concentrated on
Kocharian's comments regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Initial press reports interpreted his statements
as a new approach for Kocharian, signaling a more "helpful"
GOAM posture on the N-K issue.

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GOAM SUPPORTERS APPLAUD KOCHARIAN'S "FORCEFUL DELIVERY"
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4. (SBU) Kocharian supporters within the GOAM were
enthusiastic about the speech and told Post that it was a
"triumphant" response to the opposition's recent criticism
of Kocharian at PACE. MFA contacts told us they were
pleasantly surprised by his forceful delivery and were
hopeful that it would counteract any negative impressions of
the GOAM resulting from opposition parliamentarians' March-
April speeches. The speech appeared to exceed the
expectations of some within the GOAM who earlier predicted
Kocharian might use the opportunity to aggressively
discredit the opposition during his address.

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CRITICISM FROM OPPOSITION BUT POSITIVE TAKE ON N-K COMMENTS
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5. (SBU) While not overly negative, opposition leaders were
quick to criticize Kocharian's speech. Speaking from
Strasbourg, National Accord Party Chairman Artashes
Geghamian classified Kocharian's analysis of domestic
political developments in Armenia as "distorted."
Opposition Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian told us he
was annoyed by Kocharian's defense of the GOAM's response to
the opposition rally of April 12-13 and predicted that these
comments would later hurt the President. National
Democratic Union Chairman Vazgen Manukian described
Kocharian's address as "mediocre" and said it was
confirmation that Kocharian would never be able to rise
above his perceived "role as a battalion commander."
Geghamian and others within the opposition, however, reacted
favorably to Kocharian's comments on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Geghamian congratulated Kocharian for making
specific mention of the Paris and Key West principles. He
added, however, that Kocharian's commitment to the issue
would be better perceived were he to make similar comments
in Yerevan rather than in Strasbourg. The issue of a
joint opposition statement in response to Kocharian's
address is reportedly first on the June 30 agenda of a
meeting of the leaders of the Justice Bloc and The National
Accord Party.
COMMENT

6. (SBU) While still early, Kocharian's speech was not
initially the lightning rod for local criticism many
observers had predicted. Local media coverage of the
speech, together with unexpectedly positive reactions by
opposition leaders in response to Kocharian's N-K comments,
have clearly provided a boost of confidence for his
supporters. In contrast to his traditionally restrained
public posture, Kocharian's personal tone during the
question and answer period appears to have struck a
nostalgic chord -- at least for now -- with a number of
Armenians across party lines.
ORDWAY