Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04YEREVAN1359
2004-06-18 11:03:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION ANNOUNCES END TO "HOT SPRING"

Tags:  PGOV PREL AM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001359 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/PGI, DRL
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID, MCC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ANNOUNCES END TO "HOT SPRING"
CAMPAIGN AT LACKLUSTER RALLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001359

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/PGI, DRL
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID, MCC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ANNOUNCES END TO "HOT SPRING"
CAMPAIGN AT LACKLUSTER RALLY


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified -- Please treat
accordingly.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


2. (SBU) Leaders of the Armenian opposition Justice
bloc and National Accord Party officially announced
June 16 the end of the much-touted "hot spring" anti-
Kocharian campaign. While some opposition leaders
hinted during their "final rally--for now" on June 16
that they remain uncompromising in their demand for
Kocharian's resignation, most observers and sources
within the opposition agree that the announcement was
an admission of defeat. It remains unclear from
opposition statements whether or not opposition MPs
(who have been boycotting parliament since March 2004)
will return to parliament now that the rallies appear
to have lost steam. End summary.

--------------
OPPOSITION ENDS ITS SPRING CAMPAIGN
--------------


3. (U) During a lackluster June 16 rally, Justice bloc
leaders announced that they would halt their "hot
spring" anti-Kocharian campaign indefinitely. Without
much elaboration, they said that the "first stage" of
their plan to oust Kocharian had not gone as planned
and that they would think of "new methods of political
struggle" for the future. National Accord Party
Chairman Artashes Geghamian added that the decision to
halt opposition efforts took into consideration several
"external factors" including developments in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the release of an
upcoming Council of Europe report on Armenia. In
contrast to their earlier statements on the
opposition's resolve to continue its boycott of
parliament, opposition leaders' speeches were non-
committal on the issue during the June 16 rally.

-------------- --------------
CITY PRE-APPROVES RALLY, RECEIVES UNEXPECTED REACTION
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Unlike most of the previous opposition rallies
in downtown Yerevan this spring, the mayor's office
approved the June 16 event as part of new regulations
on political rallies and manifestations. Opposition
leaders, some of whom were the sharpest critics of the
city's unwillingness to sanction earlier rallies,
decried the Mayor's move as "insulting" and designed to
put Kocharian and the GOAM in a more democratic,
benevolent light and to defuse anti-Kocharian sentiment
among opposition supporters. One opposition newspaper
opined that the rally's approval was timed closely to
coincide with the visit of a Council of Europe fact-
finding team.


5. (SBU) Attendance at the June 16 rally was limited.
Generous estimates put the number of protesters at

2000. Observers reported that the majority of
attendees left the rally even before the culminating
speech by People's Party Chairman Stepan Demirchian.
(Note: Some opposition members reported frustration
that a televised soccer match was heavy competition for
the event and drew the crowd away before Demirchian
could take the podium. End note.)

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (SBU) While the new opposition alliance between
Demirchian and Geghamian lasted through the spring
series of rallies and protests, there is little
evidence to suggest that they plan future collaboration
on party platforms or as part of a unified front within
parliament. The decision of opposition MPs to return
to parliament will be an important barometer of
cohesion among opposition parties. Geghamian has
utilized his place in parliament to enhance his public
profile in the past. Now that opposition rallies have
lost steam and faded from the front pages, it is
possible that he, or other opposition MPs, will move
back into parliament to keep their parties in the
public eye. End comment.
ORDWAY