LITHUANIAN PRE-ELECTION WATCH: A SMALL TOWN LEANS

UNCLAS VILNIUS 001245

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIAN PRE-ELECTION WATCH: A SMALL TOWN LEANS
AWAY FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT



1. Summary. An incumbent from the ruling Social Democrats
is paradoxically running on an anti-establishment platform
and is likely to win re-election in the town of Anyksciai,
62 miles west of Vilnius. Residents are concerned with job
security, the lack of youth employment options, and rising
heating costs. By supporting an independent, the people of
Anyksciai will register their protest against the local
party establishment that has so far failed to meet their
expectations. End summary.


2. Anyskciai, a town of 13,000, is a predominantly
agricultural community. Voters here traditionally support
politicians on the right. The Conservatives, Christian
Democrats and the Liberal Center Party hold 15 of 25 seats
on the Regional Council. Social Democrat Grazina
Smigelskiene, Peasants party member Antanas Baura, and
Conservative Saulius Nefas currently represent Anyksciai in
Lithuania's parliament (Seimas). Recent redistricting will
leave Anyksciai with one Seimas member following the
October 10 elections.


3. Basic economic issues dominate the local political
agenda. Mayor Alvydas Gervinskas noted that, at USD 204,
the average monthly salary in Anyksciai is 40 percent below
the national average. The mayor continued to say that many
citizens are unhappy that they have to commute to work in
Vilnius, Kaunas and Panevezys, the largest cities in the
area, in order to find decent salaries. Young people,
impatient because they are unable to find adequate salaries
locally, are migrating to Lithuania's large cities or
abroad. Renata Gudoniene, the local Business Information
Center's Director, told us that the town has 15 active
enterprises per 10,000 inhabitants, less than the
Lithuanian average of 19. Local residents voiced concerns
that the recent privatization of one of these businesses,
the Anyksciu Vynas winery, will lead to further job cuts.


4. Grazina Smigelskiene, candidate for Seimas re-election
from Anyksciai, hopes that dissatisfaction with the local
Council will sway voters to the left and support her
candidacy. The Council's failure to repair the centralized
heating system, despite a USD 6.8 million loan for that
purpose, has kept heating bills high, property values low,
and triggered an investigation. Smigelskiene noted that
heating costs in Anyksciai are the second highest in the
nation. Smigelskiene thinks that people are angry that
life is not better after more than 10 years of
independence.


5. Smigelskiene is running for re-election as an
independent against the wishes of her party, the ruling
Social Democrats, who are backing another candidate in
Anyksciai and who have low-ranked Smigelskiene on the party
list. Among her opponents, the two strongest are
businesspersons from the Farmers Party and the Liberal
Democratic Party. The Labor Party, riding high in the
polls nationally, has 400 members in Anyksciai, against the
Social Democrats' 300, but is running what many people
believe to be a lack-luster candidate. (Note: The Mayor
expects Smigelskiene to win.)


6. Comment: A runaway Social Democrat campaigning on a
platform for change appears to be the front runner in the
Anyksciai election. Stealing the thunder of the Labor
Party, she is arguing for ethics, efficiency, and
transparency in government and for a better life for those
at the bottom of the economic ladder. She will likely
steal Labor's votes, as well.

MULL