Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04THEHAGUE2999
2004-11-18 11:12:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy The Hague
Cable title:  

Dutch Opinion Makers -- Hopes and Fears

Tags:  KPAO PREL NL 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 THE HAGUE 002999 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/UBI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PREL NL
SUBJECT: Dutch Opinion Makers -- Hopes and Fears
for Second Bush Term


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 THE HAGUE 002999

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/UBI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PREL NL
SUBJECT: Dutch Opinion Makers -- Hopes and Fears
for Second Bush Term



1. Summary: In the days immediately following the US
election, Ambassador Sobel and PA staff met with key groups
of editors, commentators and journalists. Most Dutch
commentators and reporters expressed uncertainty on how to
read the elections, particularly the exit poll information
that indicated that "moral values" had been a deciding
factor in President Bush's win. Some were concerned that the
Administration would be less inclined towards multilaterism
and consultation in the second term. However, there is a
sincere desire to see an improvement of US-European
relations and many expressed interest in a "gesture" towards
Europe from the White House. It should be noted that our
meetings occurred right after the killing of Dutch filmmaker
Theo Van Gogh while the public dialogue was focused mainly
on terrorism, Islamic radicalism and integration in Dutch
society.
End Summary


2. Introduction: In addition to monitoring press reaction
to President Bush's re-election, Ambassador Sobel and PA
staff gathered together two separate groups of observers for
roundtable sessions and met with the editorial boards of
Dutch dailies De Volkskrant and Trouw. These sessions gave
the Ambassador the opportunity to emphasize President Bush's
comments about putting political divisions behind us and to
highlight the desire of the President to reach out to
Europe. In return our contacts in these off-the-record
sessions shared with us their candid impressions of the
election and their concerns for a second Bush term.

Democracy at work?
--------------

3. Dutch interest in US elections was keen and coverage was
heavy. All papers featured the results on their front
pages. All major radio and television outlets broadcasted
live from the US. During the lead-up to the elections, Dutch
journalists tried nobly to understand the US electoral
system and did an admirable job of explaining it to their
readers, but this year's close electoral count versus the
substantial popular result for President Bush led to
continuing questions about the electoral system. Both
Centrist Algemeen Dagblad (circ. 303,471) and Centrist
NRC Handelsblad (circ. 262,422) called for reform of the US
electoral system.


4. We debriefed a group of Dutch journalists who had
traveled to the US in the period just prior to the election.
They were extremely upbeat about the US, and the results of

the elections based on their personal observations during
their trip. They were universally impressed with the grass
roots nature of US politics and the lively, dynamic
democratic process. They came back convinced that the
process worked. As one ventured: "the electoral vote is a
better system than popular vote because it combated
regionalism."

Struggle to Derive Meaning From Result
--------------


5. Many commentators struggled to reach conclusions on what
the re-election of President Bush meant and left their
listeners and readers with more questions. Centrist
influential daily De Volkskrant (circ. 322,926) for example,
claimed that Europeans did not judge the changes in the US
correctly. "The fact that an average-performing Republican
in the White House is allowed to stay provides food for
thought. Will President Bush prove to be the uniting figure
that he says he is? That question is important to
Americans, but also important for countries which are
closely linked to the US."


6. In the editorial board meetings on November 5, De
Volkskrant and left-leaning Trouw (circ. 116,968) Ambassador
Sobel had to react to anxious editors who worried out loud
about the deep divides in the US and wondered about the
effect of the issue of moral values on foreign policy. The
Trouw editors persisted on the subject, telling the
Ambassador that the US and the Netherlands did not share the
same values (note: especially on the issue of gay marriage).


7. A journalist who had been in the US just prior to the
election said that she "found it difficult to understand why
moral issues were more important to people than economics.
"The Dutch don't understand," she said, "because these are
no longer issues here."

Concerns about Unilateralism
--------------

8. The majority of journalists and editors that we talked
to were skeptical about the President's promise to be a
uniter. "Bush promised the same thing four years ago," one
journalist told us. A reporter from the conservative
Telegraaf countered that comment by saying "But he has
learned a lot in the past four years." There was even more
cynicism about a positive change in foreign policy.


8. Trouw's editorial on November 4 reflected their concern
that foreign policy would not change. They wrote: "The
American President and his advisors have a vision of the
world, which is certainly not shared by everybody, but which
they implement at full force - even with minimal assistance
of other countries if necessary." In our meeting with the
editors of Trouw on November 5, they were most interested in
how the issues of moral values would effect broader foreign
policy issues. They seemed concerned were about the long-
term effects of the election on the world.


9. Other papers also expressed their concern for a
continuation or intensification of the preemptive doctrine
now that the President has a "mandate." For example,
Algemeen Dagblad wrote: " Outside the US, there is the
danger of a solo and headstrong performance." NRC suggested
in a piece entitled "moral values more important than Iraq"
said that the aggressive US foreign policy would continue
and that the radical social and fiscal policies would be
forcefully continued."


9. The editors at De Volkskrant were most concerned about
the future of Iraq and wanted to know about the November 22
Iraqi conference and whether there was a timetable for
pullout. They were also concerned about Iraqi elections.

A Fresh Start
--------------

10. The Conservative daily newspaper Telegraaf (circ.
776,004) had a much more upbeat editorial on the re-
election. "The world has to get ready for four more years
of Bush even though it had preferred Kerry. Hopefully a
fresh start can be used to improve US-European relations.
That will require the old continent to be more modest and
recognize that America has the right and duty to protect
itself against terror. The key focus should be on
cooperation. Europe and the US share sufficient common
values to make it happen."


11. A conference hosted by the Clingendael Institute in The
Hague on November 12, heard calls for a more "Gaullist"
vision of Europe amid concerns about unilateralism.
However, pragmatists ruled the day with Institute Director
van Staden arguing that security interests endure longer
than the term of a president. Europe and the US must
seriously renew their commitments to NATO again, he said.

Advice for the President
--------------

12. In our recent sessions we would often ask journalists
and commentators what advice they would give to the newly re-
elected president to improve relations with Europe.
Interestingly, the advice often related more to style than
to policy: "Change rhetoric", they commented.


13. "People need reassurance of the President's humility and
ability to admit mistakes," said one editor. "Bush should
search for consensus and cooperation. He should build new
relationships based on trust."


14. What would the Dutch like to see in a second term?
According to our contacts they want more cooperation with
the EU and "less unilateralism." One reporter told us that
on Iraq the Dutch fear that the US will secure the peace
there and move on while the Dutch get bogged down in a
lengthy peace keeping operation. The US should not approach
Europe as "old and new", but as a whole. France and
Germany have to be onboard one journalist advised. "He
(President Bush) has to consider new rules of engagement in
the world in a UN context," another urged. One editor felt
that a gesture on an issue such as Kyoto would be
beneficial.


15. A group of prominent journalists and commentators met
over dinner and told us that even if Bush made a grand
gesture of some sort towards Europe that Europeans would be
so cynical that they would not be receptive. A Dutch
commentator of Iranian origin encouraged the US to speak to
students, both of Dutch and immigrant background.

Conclusion
--------------

16. While the Dutch opinion makers are currently concerned
with Islamic extremism and integration, they are also
concerned about what a second Bush administration means to
them. They seem anxious for a gesture of some sort from the
White House indicating a willingness to work together more.
While they weren't terribly specific about what this gesture
would entail, they indicated that they would be receptive to
just about anything. Volkskrant, however, in their November
15 editorial commented that President Bush's gesture of
traveling to Europe as soon as possible in order to
strengthen transatlantic ties is a "laudable aspiration.
But it might be more urgent for the President to have a good
talk with the chief of the organization that is to provide
the necessary support for Iraqi elections, " the paper
concluded.

Our post-election encounters reveal little outward hostility
to the US and some familiar unease about the future of
transatlantic relations. However, on balance, what prevailed
was relative optimism and a strong desire to continue the
Dutch Atlanticist role.

SOBEL