PRE-GAERC DEMARCHE: DUTCH RESPONSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002757

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2014
TAGS: PREL NL EUN
SUBJECT: PRE-GAERC DEMARCHE: DUTCH RESPONSES

REF: STATE 228399

Classified By: Pol Counselor Andrew Schofer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. PolCouns and PolOff met with Jaap Werner,
Director, Political Affairs, MFA, and Adriaan Palm, MFA
Political Affairs Officer, on October 26 to deliver points in
reftel. Werner said the only addition to the agenda as set
forth reftel was the African Great Lakes, where the Belgians
under "AOB" will give a report on tbeir minister's recent
visit to the region. On Iraq the GAERC will finalize the
"package" of EU projects, for conveying to Iraqi PM Allawi at
the Nov 5 Council. The GAERC will take its cue on Iran and
Sudan from the EU-3 and UN respectively. With regard to
Russia, the EU hopes to issue a counter-terrorism
joint-statement at the EU-Russia summit but is worried about
Russia's unwillingness to engage on regional issues. Solan
will brief the GAERC on the Middle East and Somalia. End
summary.

Iraq
--------------


2. (C) Per reftel, the November 2 GAERC will finalize the
EU's aid package for conveying to Allawi in November 5. At
this time there are still a few details to be cleared up on
the package, such as the location of training. Most training
will definitely be outside Iraq, according to Werner, but the
Dutch are trying to identify elements (such as the selection
of training participants) that can be done in Iraq. Werner
characterized the package as "so-so," clearly falling short
of where the Dutch had hoped to be. For the elections, there
are no plans to have an observer mission in-country (the
"security concerns are overwhelming"),and Werner was not
sure exactly how many election experts would be offering
advice. He said three, but there might be more in areas he
had not heard about and said Brussels would have the most
accurate information. The question of supporting the UN
protection force remains the same; Werner asked about plans
for the "middle ring" and whether there remained any
alternatives to the MNF.


3. (C) Werner did not know what Allawi's additional travel
plans in Europe might be. The Dutch are arranging several
bilaterals for him on the side of the Nov 5 Council meeting,
which should, in the practical Dutch opinion, reduce his need
to travel around Europe.

Iran-EU-3
--------------


4. (C) Werner said the presidency is "in a waiting mode" on
Iran and would not predict what direction the GAERC
discussion would take. Much would depend on the Iranian
response to the EU-3 proposal, which he expected would be
delivered at the October 27 meeting in Vienna. The EU-3 will
report the results of those discussions to the PSC this week
and will also brief the GAERC. Werner indicated that if the
Iranian response were "serious," the EU-3 would probably meet
with Iran again before the GAERC, possibly at a "higher
level." He suggested that if the Iranian response was
unsatisfactory, then the GAERC and/or the November 5 Council
might send a "strong signal" to Iran, but no decision on
whether or not to endorse referral to the UNSC at the
end-of-November IAEA BOG meeting was likely before the
November 22 GAERC, he said.

MEPP
--------------


5. (C) The GAERC will receive a Solana think piece, or
pieces, on the EU role in moving forward. Solana will be
suggesting short-term vs longer-term concerns. At the GAERC
will be an oral briefing; no paper will be circulated prior
to the meeting.

Russia
--------------


6. (C) Contact continues with the Russians following up the
Troika ministerial, but the Dutch do not expect to complete
the four "common spaces" in time for the EU-Russia Summit on
November 11. Werner noted that the EU "is not desperate" to
complete this as a deliverable for the summit. There may be
provisional implementation of some agreed parts of the
package while other parts are being completed, but they will
"stay linked" as a single package. For the summit the EU
hopes to issue a joint statement on terrorism (which Gijs de
Vries will try to negotiate in Moscow in early November),but
Werner admitted it is likely to be "more words than deeds."
The agenda is the four spaces, terrorism, and regional
issues, where there will be only an exchange of views. The
Russians, he said, continue to balk at any substantive
discussion of regional issues (such as Moldova and Georgia),
and are adamant about not discussing Chechnya in any context
other than counter-terrorism.


7. (C) Werner added that a growing number of member states
are becoming worried both about Putin's domestic policies and
the Russian "attitude" in the region. There is a fundamental
difference in the Russian and European approaches to Russia's
"near abroad" and the EU's "near neighborhood", which turn
out to be the same countries but with little or reluctant
Russian acceptance of a legitimate EU interest in them.
(Palm commented that what the EU considers a "neighborhood"
Russia sees as its own "backyard.") The EU wants to see the
states of the FSU stable and prosperous, while Russia seems
to believe its interests are best served by the opposite,
according to Werner. Some member states have complained that
the EU "lacks a strategy" for dealing with Russia; the Dutch
are toying with working on something during their presidency,
but have made little progress (and time is running out.)

Sudan
--------------


8. (C) No action is expected, pending UN decisions. The EU
evaluation is that the situation is "stuck" though perhaps
there has been net progress, since the security situation is
about the same while the humanitarian situation is better.
Werner opined that the Bot meeting two weeks ago in Khartoum
(where he encountered a fierce reaction to the mention of
possible sanctions and left shaking his head over the
unprecedented nature of his meeting) is evidence that the
Sudan government believes it is "off the hook" and the
international community is "off their backs." Cooperation
with the African Union enables the Sudanese to buy time from
international action.

Somalia
--------------


9. (C) The GAERC will be briefed on Solana's recent trip to
the area and his meetings there.
SOBEL