TURKEY/EU/CYPRUS - "THEY AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002452

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2014
TAGS: PREL TU NL CY
SUBJECT: TURKEY/EU/CYPRUS - "THEY AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET"


Classified By: Andrew Schofer, Political Counselor, for
reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Hannie Pollman-Zall (protect),MFA
Director of the Western and Central European Department, told
Poloff on September 23 that if the Turks thought the European
reaction to the adultery law proposal was bad, "they ain't
seen nothin' yet." Ankara, she suggested, may still not
fully appreciate to what extent the EU will intrude into
internal Turkish affairs in the course of accession
negotiations. Helping the Turks understand this reality is
an area where the U.S. could play a helpful role. On Cyprus,
Pollman-Zall suggested the Cypriot actions are driven more by
a desire to revise the Annan plan than by an interest in
keeping Turkey out of the EU. End Summary.

TURKEY MIGHT HEAR NO FIRST, THEN YES


2. (C) Speaking with Poloff on September 23, Hannie
Pollman-Zall noted that the many Turks still do not
appreciate how intrusive the EU will become in EU affairs if
and when accession negotiations begin. If the Turks thought
the recent flap over the proposed adultery law was bad, she
added, "they ain't seen nothing yet." (Note: Pollman-Zall
was speaking just as the positive news from Erdogan's
meetings in Brussels was breaking. End note.) "If the Turks
think the EU has been meddling in their internal affairs",
she said, then "they don't understand EU reality. Just wait
until they see what it means to be in the EU full time."


3. (C) With regard to the question of starting accession
negotiations, Pollman-Zall predicted internal EU discussions
would remain inconclusive up until, and possibly beyond, the
December 17 Council meeting. If the Council is unable to
reach a decision, she said, then it is quite possible that a
second Council meeting would need to be called to resolve the
issue. Even in December, and even with a positive Commission
report in October, countries like France, Austria, or Cyprus
may still be arguing "No". While Cyprus would "not dare to
stand alone," she said, it would be "willing to sidle up to
group of like minded doubters." Eventually, however, Cyprus
would buckle under pressure if momentum for a positive
decision was strong enough. Pollman-Zall recalled that she
had seen EU Heads of State "back colleagues into a corner
physically to press them to join a consensus" in the past,
and predicted that, at the end of the day, the Council would
give Turkey a grudging "yes" on starting negotiations.
Pollman-Zall denied having seen an actual draft of
Commissioner Verheugen's report, but admitted that she was
following its development closely and providing regular
input.


4. (C) When asked how the U.S. might play a useful role
guiding Turkey so it is easier for the EU to make the right
decision, Pollman-Zall offered two suggestions:

a) The U.S. could send a message to Turkey to "stop being so
childish about recognizing Cyprus." Turkey has got to
realize that the EU, institutionally, cannot exclude Cyprus
from EU meetings, she said. Turkey has to find an elegant
way to recognize the Government of Cyprus. This would
necessarily involve recognizing the whole island, she
admitted, which puts Turkey in the corner regarding the
Turkish part. Clearly Turkey "needs good lawyers to find a
way to do this without de facto un-recognizing Turkish
Cyprus," she said, adding, "doesn't the US have good lawyers
who could help the good Turkish lawyers find a way to say
this?"

b) The U.S. could help Turkey understand that if it hopes to
join the EU, then it has no choice but to accommodate to EU
rules. Even if Turkey is a big country with a long history,
she said, Turkey has to accept that the EU has rules that
must be followed. "Shouting about internal affairs is not
compatible with EU membership," she said.

CYPRUS


5. (C) Cyprus, according to Pollman-Zall, is blocking the
EU's trade/aid package primarily to leverage concessions on
revisions to the Annan plan for governance of the island,
rather than to influence the EU's decision on Turkey. As of
September 23 (in a fast moving negotiation) the Dutch believe
neither the Greek Cypriots nor Turkish Cypriots want a deal
on the package after earlier indications that the Turkish
side was going along. Pollman-Zall thought the discussions
could move into the Luxembourg or British Presidencies.


6. (C) Pollman-Zall observed that the negotiations over
Cyprus aid/trade have become very complicated and "could
change again with one phone call in an hour." The Dutch
still want to link trade and aid packages as a strategy, but
the Turkish Cypriots seem now to be rejecting the aid package
because they read the current draft as excluding all Turkish
Cypriots from any benefits, she said. (Note: Pollman-Zall
said that the text was originally written to intentionally
exclude Turkish Anatolian settlers in Cyprus from benefits,
so as to discourage further economic immigration from
Anatolia by those seeking to capitalize on a 300 million euro
EU aid program. The text, however, literally refers to
"legally established nationals," which could mean all Turkish
Cypriots, native and immigrant. This is impossible for the
Turkish Cypriots to accept, according to Pollman-Zall. End
Note.)


7. (C) In closing, Pollman-Zall asked for an update on the
status of the USG Cyprus aid package. She mentioned: a) the
$30 million for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME); b) the
airport in the North; c) phytosanitary issues.
SOBEL