Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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04THEHAGUE1210 | 2004-05-17 15:19:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy The Hague |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001210 |
1. (C) Summary: Balkenende's cabinet is leaning toward approving an eight-month extension of the Dutch force in Iraq by mid-June, but it is far from a done deal. Junior coalition member D66 has spelled out conditions for supporting a renewal, several of which cannot be fulfilled prior to the June 4 cabinet meeting at which a decision will most likely be taken. Senior cabinet officials predict that D66 coalition partners will concur with the extension, but are concerned about an acrimonious debate in parliament if the UNSC has not yet agreed on a resolution. We will need to continue efforts to convince the Dutch that progress toward achieving a UNSC resolution and other conditions provide sufficient justification for a positive decision. End summary. 2. (C) Reftel outlined Dutch reactions to the first death of one of their soldiers in Iraq, and outlined the challenges facing PM Balkenende's government as it decides whether or not to extend Dutch troops in al Muthanna province beyond their current July 15 mandate for at least eight months (i.e., to accommodate two four-month troop rotations). Embassy The Hague has aggressively reached out to parliamentary floor leaders, defense and foreign affairs spokesmen of the government parties (Christian Democrats, Liberals and Liberal Democrats, AKA, "D66") and the main opposition Labor party, MFA Pol Director Siblesz, and PM's senior foreign advisor Swartbol. The Ambassador has also spoken with FM Bot and Deputy PMs Zalm and de Graaf. We will continue to address the apparent lack of understanding regarding sequencing of UNSCR discussions the transfer of authority to an Iraqi interim government demonstrated in the public statements of some Dutch parliamentarians. The pro-extension Liberal (conservative) party has repeatedly cited as a problem the political fallout following the prisoner abuse scandal. The loss of moral high ground deeply troubles Dutch conservatives, who are watching carefully to see how the U.S. addresses the problem. 3. (C) After a difficult start to last week which saw junior coalition partner D66 expressing strong public reservations about renewing the deployment, the situation has improved. Much of the cabinet is now leaning towards endorsing an extension, under the strong leadership of PM Balkenende, FM Bot and Defense Minister Kamp, but parliament remains queasy. D66 members are nervous about an extension. Deputy PM de Graaf of D66 told the Ambassador that while D66 ministers are leaning toward agreeing to an extension for the sake of government unity, it will be difficult for them to do so if the D66 MPs remain reluctant. In a meeting with DCM may 17, D66 foreign affairs spokesman Bert Bakker stressed that while he and other party members hoped to be able to vote yes on an extension, such a decision was not yet guaranteed. (Note: there is no automatic linkage between votes of cabinet members and their parliamentary party, i.e., while the two D66 ministers might support a renewal, D66 MPs are not bound by their decision. End note). 4. (C) D66 has stressed the importance of a new UNSCR, a credible and central UN role, and an explicit invitation from the Iraqi government for coalition forces to remain as keys to securing its support for an extension. In spelling out the conditions necessary for D66 support, Floor leader Boris Dittrich and Bakker have made clear that they are as interested in keeping the Dutch decision-making process open and honest as they are with the technical fulfillment of the conditions, including the security of the Dutch forces. In response to DCM's questioning, Bakker acknowledged that positive and transparent movement toward fulfilling D66's conditions should be enough to produce a positive vote. 5. (C) We expect a Cabinet vote on June 4. From our soundings thus far, we must report that nothing is certain yet, including the surety of a united cabinet. In order to pull this off, the Prime Minister will have to: -- Get his cabinet to approve the deployment. (He intends to delay a decision until the June 4 cabinet meeting to allow the UN process to evolve, and then go to D-Day celebrations with a positive decision in hand.) Deputy PM Zalm chaired the May 14 cabinet meeting and told us that the tone was positive concerning a renewal, though no straw poll was taken. -- Debate the decision in parliament. Assuming a positive June 4 decision, the Dutch parliament would debate the issue during the following two weeks and a parliamentary confirmation of the government's decision would be likely just in time to meet the military's rotation requirement of June 21. -- Stick to his guns even if there is significant opposition in parliament. Usually, Dutch make deployment decisions with a super majority. To move forward without the main opposition Labor party, as Balkenende appears to be prepared to do, would break precedent. Harder still would be to move ahead if D66 members of parliament oppose. Technically, the government would have the votes without D66, owing to the support of the populist opposition List Pim Fortuyn party, but hard decisions are never made with winner takes all votes in this country. Even the Christian Democrats, the party of the PM, FM and NATO SYG, are nervous about going ahead with a deployment without D66 on board. For this reason, Embassy is blanketing D66 with up to the minute information. (Dittrich and Bakker have both said they were pleased to learn the degree to which the U.S. is serious about pursuing a UNSCR.) 6. (C) Comment: GONL sources confirm that the Secretary's call to FM Bot on May 11, and invitation to Pol Director Siblesz and other coalition PolDirs for consultations on May 20 were very welcome. The Dutch cabinet's timeline will not allow the extension decision to wait until the transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi Interim Government capable of issuing an invitation to the international community. It may not even wait until the adoption of a new UNSC resolution. Therefore, the more the U.S. (and the UK and UN) can do to signal that this process is well and truly in train, the easier it will be in early June for the GONL to win convincing political backing for an extension. Keeping Coalition partners like the Dutch well-informed on developments in the UNSC will be extremely valuable over the course of the coming weeks. End Comment. MINIMIZED CONSIDERED. SOBEL |