LIKUD MK SA'AR OPPOSES WITHDRAWAL PLAN BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002256

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: LIKUD MK SA'AR OPPOSES WITHDRAWAL PLAN BUT
PREDICTS REFERENDUM ENDORSEMENT

REF: A. TEL AVIV 2250

B. TEL AVIV 1906

Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: Likud MK Gideon Sa'ar told poloff on April
18 that he will quietly oppose PM Sharon's disengagement plan
even though he is certain that the plan will win a majority
in the May 2 Likud referendum. Sa'ar objects to the plan
since it requires withdrawing from Gaza and four northern
West Bank settlements without obtaining anything from the
Palestinians in return. He fears that implementing the plan
will be seen by terrorist organizations as their victory and
will leave Israel without future bargaining chips in
negotiations. Sa'ar said that despite his opposition to the
plan, he will support it after it wins approval in the
referendum, and that he hopes Likud can convince right-wing
coalition partners to remain in the government even after
Cabinet approval of the plan. End summary.

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Sa'ar Goes Against the Tide
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2. (C) Hours after the April 18 announcements by several key
Likud ministers that they would support PM Sharon's
disengagement plan (ref A),Likud faction leader and
first-term MK Gideon Sa'ar told poloff that "Sharon has the
wind on his back" and predicted a Likud majority will support
the PM's plan in the referendum. Despite his prediction,
Sa'ar told poloff he opposes the plan and will vote against
it in the May 2 Likud referendum. Sa'ar added that he will
not join any of his fellow Likud colleagues' campaigns
against the plan, such as that of Agriculture Minister
Yisrael Levy or Minister-Without-Portfolio Uzi Landau. Sa'ar
said he recognizes that most Israelis want change and hope
that disengagement will improve the overall security
situation. Once the plan is approved in the Likud
referendum, Sa'ar stated firmly that he will then support the
plan as well.


3. (C) Sa'ar stressed that for now, he could not support the
Prime Minister's plan on principle since it requires Israel
to withdraw from all of Gaza and four West Bank settlements
without obtaining any quid pro quo from the Palestinians.
Israel would lose important bargaining chips in any future
negotiations with the Palestinians, he argued. "Israel did
not make out so well" in PM Sharon's April 14 letter exchange
with President Bush, Sa'ar claimed. In exchange for
President Bush's "words," Sa'ar emphasized, Israel gave up
all Gaza settlements, four settlements in the West Bank and,
according to Sa'ar, overall settlement growth.

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Victory for Terrorists
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4. (C) Sa'ar also opposes unilateral disengagement because
he believes it sends the wrong signal to Palestinian
extremists who, he fears, will claim a victory when they see
Israeli settlers packing up and leaving Gaza. They will view
the evacuation of Gaza, says Sa'ar, as the result of a
successful terrorist campaign and not as a result of
bilateral negotiations. Sa'ar stressed it would have been
much more advantageous to move forward with a Gaza withdrawal
in steps, along with a Palestinian partner, but said there is
no acceptable Palestinian partner currently. "None of the
moderate (Palestinian leaders) have a chance while Arafat is
around," he said.

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Holding the Coalition Together
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5. (C) Sa'ar said the threats of the right-wing coalition
parties -- the National Religious Parties and the National
Union -- to leave the coalition if the plan is approved by
the Cabinet (after it receives a majority in the referendum)
are not yet certain. Even National Union Chairman Avigdor
Lieberman, says Sa'ar, may decide to stay in his ministerial
seat. Sa'ar confirmed that he and other Likud MKs were
trying to convince these parties to stay in the coalition
even after the plan is approved. "We prefer if the
right-wing stays" rather than having Labor join the
coalition, Sa'ar stressed.

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Pushing Away Thoughts of Mazuz
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6. (C) Sa'ar declined to speculate on the possibility that
Attorney General Menachem Mazuz would recommend that PM
Sharon be indicted on bribery charges in the Greek Island
Affair (ref B). He told poloff that he "cannot think about
(the issue.)" He did underline, however, his view that Mazuz
could only lean on the weight of the evidence at hand when
making his decision, not on subjective matters such as
whether indicting Sharon would be for the national good.
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