POLLS SHOW DISENGAGEMENT PLAN WINNING LIKUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002231

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW DISENGAGEMENT PLAN WINNING LIKUD
MAJORITY

REF: A. TEL AVIV 2206

B. TEL AVIV 2199

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Polls conducted after the April 14 meeting between
President Bush and PM Sharon show Sharon's disengagement plan
winning a majority of Likud voter support. Major media
analysts, however, noted that intervening events -- such as a
significant terrorist attack or FinMin Benyamin Netanyahu's
public opposition to the plan -- could threaten the plan's
approval in the planned May 2 Likud referendum on the issue.
Likud campaigns for and against the plan are underway, with
PM Sharon's son, Omri, threatening fellow Likud politicians
on April 15 that the PM may resign if the referendum fails to
back the plan. End summary.

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Polls Show Clear Majority for Plan
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2. (U) According to three media polls conducted on April 15,
PM Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan, the contents of
which has appeared in the April 16 press, enjoys the support
of a majority of Likud's some 200,000 registered members:

-- Private poll broadcast by IDF radio: 57.5 percent of Likud
voters support the plan, 37.5 percent oppose it and 5 percent
are undecided.

-- Yedioth Ahronoth poll: 54 percent of Likud voters support
the plan, 32 percent are opposed and 14 percent are undecided.

-- Ma'ariv poll: 49.4 percent of Likud voters support the
plan, 38.4 percent are against and 12.2 percent are undecided.


3. (C) While the polls indicate a comfortable majority for
the plan, Uri Rosen, writing for Ma'ariv on April 16,
cautioned that "almost any unexpected event, ranging from a
public statement by Netanyahu against the plan to a terror
attack staged especially on the day of the vote could change
the picture." Rosen, however, discounted the assertion by
some observers that disengagement opponents are more likely
to actually vote than supporters of the plan. According to
Rosen, a Ma'ariv examination of poll results indicates that
"contrary to the arguments raised by Netanyahu's people over
the past few days, (note: -- and contrary to what Omri Sharon
asserted to poloff on April 14 per ref A) the supporters of
the disengagement plan (will) vote at nearly the same level
of participation as the plan's opponents...." Rosen also
noted that it may take some time before the positive effect
of the Bush-Sharon meeting "trickles down to public opinion"
causing a possible "soar" in support.

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Bibi and Omri Playing All the Cards
--------------


4. (SBU) Yedioth Ahronoth reported on April 16 that "close
associates" of FinMin Netanyahu indicated the Finance
Minister would oppose the plan "unless he gets a satisfactory
answer to the central question of the separation fence and
whether the settlement blocs will be inside the fence."
Netanyahu reportedly told Sharon in a telephone conversation
while the PM was in Washington that the withdrawal plan
should not be implemented until the fence is complete.
Yedioth reported that "sources in Sharon's bureau admitted"
that if Netanyahu uses "all his political clout" against the
plan, Sharon may find it "difficult to pass the plan in the
referendum and the Cabinet."


5. (C) Sharon has already spoken with other Likud ministers
and political leaders (ref B) about the plan and intends to
meet with ministers, most likely on Sunday, April 18. Two
key ministers, Limor Livnat and Silvan Shalom, have said that
they will take a position on the plan after they learn more
about it directly from the PM. Sharon is widely believed to
have already lined up Labor to take the place of the National
Union coalition partner if the cabinet approves the plan.
(Note: National Union Chairman Avigdor Lieberman announced on
April 16 that his party would leave the coalition "as soon as
the plan is approved.") The Knesset, now in recess, has
scheduled an extraordinary session on April 22 to learn
directly from the PM about his plan. Shinui MK Ehud Rassabi
told poloff on April 15 that he was confident Sharon's plan
would get through the referendum and asserted that Netanyahu
would "definitely support the plan."


6. (C) Likud MK Omri Sharon, who has joined with Defense
Minister Shaul Mofaz (ref A) and other Likud members to
campaign for the plan, has, according to Ha'aretz, been
meeting with local Likud branch heads warning them that the
prime minister would resign if the disengagement plan is not
approved in the referendum and alluding to the loss of
Likud's 40 Knesset seats and new elections if his father
resigns.


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