REACTION TO BUSH-SHARON MEETING: SHARON GOT WHAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002199

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL GOI EXTERNAL ISRAEL RELATIONS
SUBJECT: REACTION TO BUSH-SHARON MEETING: SHARON GOT WHAT
HE NEEDS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Key Likud disengagement supporters and the
major media are declaring PM Sharon victorious after learning
of the assurances Sharon received in his April 14 meeting
with President Bush. They also assess that Sharon obtained
what he needs from the U.S. to push his disengagement plan
through a fractious Likud Party referendum on the unilateral
withdrawal plan slated for May. While the small group of
hardest-core disengagement opponents from across Likud and
the two rightist coalition partners dismiss the USG
assurances as inadequate and nothing new, key Likud fence
straddlers on disengagement appear to be moving in favor of
the plan. FinMin Netanyahu, while not yet definitively
expressing support for the plan, reportedly stated he is
satisfied with President Bush's assurances, including on the
Palestinian refugee issue. Labor Party Chairman Shimon Peres
is embracing President Bush's position, declaring that it
"conforms to the Labor Party's positions," clearly signaling
Labor's readiness to join a Likud-led coalition. End summary.

--------------
Key Players Satisfied
--------------


2. (C) Key Likud supporters of PM Sharon and his
controversial unilateral disengagement plan are thrilled with
the assurances Sharon received from President Bush April 14
in exchange for moving forward with his unilateral withdrawal
plan. Defense Minister Mofaz announced on April 14 that
"Today marks an important milestone toward creating a new and
improved political and security reality for Israel. One
should welcome these significant and unprecedented
understandings that were reached... which... anchor extremely
vital Israeli political and security interests." (Note: PM
Sharon's son and Likud MK, Omri Sharon, told poloff on April
14, prior to the Washington press conference, that the
Defense Minister would play a leading role in the
pro-disengagement referendum campaign to lend credibility to
Sharon's assurances that the plan would boost Israel's
security.) Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that
President Bush's letter constitutes a historic achievement.


3. (C) Several Likud ministers who had been straddling the
fence on the withdrawal plan indicated after the release of
the White House assurances that they can now support it. In
an Israel radio report on April 15, Netanyahu reportedly
expressed satisfaction with President Bush's assurances, even
though they do not explicitly address one of Netanyahu's
conditions for supporting the plan: that there be no
withdrawal from Gaza until the separation fence -- in a route
that includes the Ariel settlement bloc -- is completed.
Netanyahu has not yet, however, come out squarely in support
of Sharon's plan. Immigrant Absorption Minister Tzipi Livni,
one of the undecided Likud ministers, reportedly announced
that with the U.S. assurances particularly regarding views on
right of return, she would support the disengagement plan.
Education Minister Limor Livnat, still holding out, said she
would reserve judgment on the U.S. assurances and the plan
until she sees "exactly what was said." PM Sharon called key
Likud leaders from Washington. He reportedly announced that
he will meet with Likud ministers about the plan on April 16,
when he returns from the U.S.


4. (C) Labor Party Chairman Shimon Peres openly embraced
President Bush's April 14 statements and the U.S. assurances,
reportedly stating that "President Bush's speech almost
completely conforms to the Labor Party's positions calling
for the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the
1967 borders with minor border adjustments which take into
consideration the Jewish settlements in the territories and
Israel's security needs." He added that President Bush's
statement on the Palestinian right of return also conforms
with Labor's position. Peres' statements set the stage for
Labor joining a Likud government if and when the rightist
parties bolt. Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, leader of the
coalition partner Shinui Party, praised President Bush's
assurances, stating that they "bolster Israel's standing in
exchange for Sharon's disengagement plan."

-------------- --------------
Disengagement Opponents Discount U.S. Assurances
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Not surprising were the responses by ideological
opponents of unilateral withdrawal both from those on the
right opposed to withdrawing from settlements, and those on
the left opposed to moving forward without negotiating with
the Palestinians. Housing Minister Eifi Eitam of the
rightist coalition partner National Religious Party,
dismissed President Bush's and PM Sharon's statements as
"word games" that "do not provide a response to the security
threats and the unbearably high economic price of the plan."
Another leader in the anti-disengagement plan campaign, Likud
Minister-without-Portfolio Uzi Landau, referred to President
Bush's statements as "sadly inadequate... which contain
nothing new." He called on Likud ministers to help foil the
plan. MK Yuri Stern of the rightist National Union coalition
party, assessed that PM Sharon "failed to attain any
strategic achievement even from a friendly President like
Bush." Yossi Sarid of the leftist Meretz party said that he
"fail(s) to see anything new in the U.S. stand," although new
left-wing Yahad party leader Yossi Beilin reportedly stated
that "Bush's statements constitute a basis for an
Israeli-Palestinian agreement."

--------------
Media Declares Victory for Sharon
--------------


6. (U) Israeli media commentary universally portrayed
Wednesday's events as a major victory for Sharon. The
leading pundits underlined the historic importance of what
they defined as unprecedented U.S. statements rejecting the
"right of return" of Palestinian refugees to Israel. Many
also saw in the President's remarks the first statement by a
U.S. leader legitimizing the settlements, although Ze'ev
Schiff of Ha'aretz and Ben Caspit of Ma'ariv cautioned that
the President's language on territorial issues, such as
recognizing demographic realities on the ground, could apply
as much to the reality of expanding Palestinian areas of
Jerusalem as to the settlements.


7. (SBU) Going beyond the substantive issues, commentators
stressed the political side of Wednesday's meeting. "No one
can allow himself the luxury of not meddling in the other's
elections," Yedioth's Nahum Barnea noted. Sharon was seen as
receiving a big boost toward winning approval of the
disengagement initiative in the coming Likud referendum, not
only from the President, but also from the strident
Palestinian and Arab reaction to the President's statements.
Commentators saw Sharon reciprocating with his statement
praising the President's steadfastness against terror, and
with his refusal to meet with Sen. Kerry.
--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) Judging from the positive statements by key coalition
and Likud players, such as Netanyahu, and major media
analysts, U.S. assurances provided PM Sharon a surfeit of
ammunition to convince Likud voters to support his
disengagement plan in next month's referendum. As the major
daily Yedioth Ahronoth put it, "Bush gave Sharon words, only
words, but what words."

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
LeBaron