SHARON READY TO REPLACE WAYWARD MINISTERS OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002064

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS GOI INTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: SHARON READY TO REPLACE WAYWARD MINISTERS OVER
DISENGAGEMENT

REF: A. TEL AVIV 2034


B. TEL AVIV 2031

C. TEL AVIV 1953

D. TEL AVIV 1845

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary. At the April 4 Cabinet meeting, PM Sharon
invited two right-wing ministers to leave the coalition if
they are not comfortable with its policies, demonstrating
Sharon's confidence that Labor is waiting in the wings to
replace these ministers' parties (ref A). Sharon's display
of bravado also sends a signal to Likud disengagement
opponents that he feels confident his plan will gain a
majority of Likud support in the upcoming party referendum,
thereby putting pressure on undecided or opposing Likud
ministers to back the plan. The main wild card for Sharon
continues to be AG Menachem Mazuz, who must decide whether to
indict Sharon in the "Greek Island Affair." End summary.

--------------
Sharon and Olmert Take on Eitam and Elon
--------------


2. (C) In a display of bravado and impatience with vocal
disengagement opponents, PM Sharon reportedly announced at
his April 4 cabinet session that those ministers
uncomfortable with his unilateral disengagement plan "can get
up and leave" the government. Sharon's outburst, as reported
in the major daily Yedioth Ahronoth, was directed at National
Religious Party (NRP) Minister of Construction and Housing
Effi Eitam, whom Sharon accused of misrepresenting facts,
including on Eitam's visits abroad. (Note: Eitam has been a
vocal opponent of Sharon's disengagement plan.) Defending
Sharon's criticism of Eitam, Deputy PM Ehud Olmert pointed
out that it was "improper to criticize the PM in working
visits abroad." National Union Tourism Minister Benny Elon,
who has unabashedly criticized Sharon's plan domestically and
abroad, defended Eitam, asserting that opponents could
criticize the plan until it was adopted by the government.
Referring to himself and Eitam, Elon added that "we will
leave the government if the government's decision (on the
plan) does not satisfy us." With that, Sharon responded "you
really don't have to be here."

--------------
Referendum Campaign Heats Up
--------------


3. (C) As lines in the sand are drawn by Sharon in his
cabinet, Likud disengagement opponents are revving up a PR
campaign to convince Likud members to vote against Sharon's
plan in a party referendum to take place around mid-May (ref
C). Two out of Likud's 14 ministers --
Ministers-without-Portfolio Uzi Landau and Natan Sharansky --
are spearheading the "no" campaign along with several Likud
MKs. The Jewish settler movement and another Likud lobby are
also reportedly organizing their own anti-disengagement
campaigns, with one under the banner "Likudniks don't
disengage." At the same time, D/PM Olmert announced on April
2 that he would be launching a campaign to gather support for
the disengagement plan.

--------------
Comment
--------------


4. (C) Sharon's raw exchange with Elon and Eitam indicates
that he may be willing to take off the gloves as he enters
the home stretch for his disengagement plan's survival and
his own political survival in the face of a possible bribery
indictment. As Sharon made clear in his Passover interviews,
he is counting on U.S. assurances gained during his April 14
meeting with President Bush to help him win the hearts and
minds of Likud members in the upcoming referendum. With
Likud rank-and-file support, he could then consolidate Likud
ministerial support for his plan in a Cabinet vote. Sharon
stated in his Passover interview with Ma'ariv that he already
believes that FinMin Netanyahu "will ultimately support (the
plan) as will many other ministers...." There is
considerable speculation that Sharon has already worked out a
deal with Shimon Peres for Labor to join with Likud after a
cabinet vote approving the plan compels the NRP and NU to
leave the coalition (ref A). The only wild card for Sharon
is AG Mazuz, who is now reportedly liable to take two months
to reach an indictment decision, enough time, perhaps, for
Sharon to shepherd his plan through the Likud, the government
and perhaps the Knesset.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
LeBaron