Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TELAVIV1906
2004-03-29 13:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

SHARON INDICTMENT RECOMMENDATION NO SURPRISE; MOST

Tags:  PGOV PREL IS GOI INTERNAL 
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291334Z Mar 04
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001906 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/14
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON INDICTMENT RECOMMENDATION NO SURPRISE; MOST
POLITICAL LEADERS KEEPING MUM

REF: A) TEL AVIV 808 B) TEL AVIV 470 C) TEL AVIV 424

Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 B and D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001906

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/14
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON INDICTMENT RECOMMENDATION NO SURPRISE; MOST
POLITICAL LEADERS KEEPING MUM

REF: A) TEL AVIV 808 B) TEL AVIV 470 C) TEL AVIV 424

Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 B and D.


1. (C) Summary: The long-anticipated word this past weekend
that State Prosecutor Edna Arbel intends to recommend
indictment of PM Sharon on bribery charges leaves unchanged
for now the calculus that PM Sharon, if thick-skinned enough,
can manage his legal and political problems, and remain in
office (Ref A). Neither an eventual indictment request by
the Attorney General, nor the necessary parliamentary waiver
of Sharon's immunity to allow that indictment, are certain,
and, under existing law, Sharon can remain in office until
any eventual conviction has been upheld on appeal. Sharon
Chief of Staff Dov Weissglas confidently predicted March 28
that no indictment will come forward. Further, media
punditry notwithstanding, the possibility of the Supreme
Court entertaining a petition forcing Sharon to resign, if
indicted, is slim. While a conceivably weakened Sharon could
try to cut a deal with the Attorney General to resign rather
than face prosecution of both himself and his son Gilad, both
Sharons also stand implicated in the so-called Cyril Kern
bribery affair, in which observers say the corruption
evidence is even stronger. Accordingly Sharon would have to
cut deals in two cases to gain any protection. Were he to
either resign or be forced from office, Likud would choose
from within its ranks a Knesset member -- most likely Bibi
Netanyahu -- to form and head this or a new government,
without the need for national elections. If the indictment
goes forward, Likud leaders and coalition partners will thus
have to decide whether they prefer a Gaza-withdrawal-averse
Netanyahu to a tainted Sharon - not an obvious call for many.
In the meantime, Sharon has asserted that if any coalition
parties quit after his return from Washington later this
month, he will form a new government "on the same day." End
summary.

--------------
Most Party Leaders Have Wait-and-See Approach
--------------


2. (SBU) The reportedly unanimous recommendation by State
Prosecutor Edna Arbel and her team that AG Menahem Mazuz

indict PM Sharon on bribery charges in the so-called "Greek
Island Affair" has generated media interest but few demands
from opposition or coalition leaders for PM Sharon to step
down. AG Mazuz enjoys a reputation as a big picture guy, and
one who will demand the strongest evidence before seeking the
Knesset vote to waive Sharon's immunity, which would be
necessary to pursue an indictment. With indictment still
only a possibility, and many tough steps between there and
conviction, three of 22 other ministers have spoken out.
Tourism Minister Benny Elon of the National Union party and
(Shinui) Infrastructure Minister Yosef Paritzky, have called
for Sharon's resignation if he is indicted. Hard-line Likud
Minister without Portfolio Uzi Landau called on Sharon, if
indicted, "to temporarily suspend himself." Paritzky,
considered an individualist within his party, does not
necesssarily reflect his colleagues' views, and Landau and
Elon are staunchly against Sharon's withdrawal plans. In
contrast, the silence from Labor leader Shimon Peres, Shinui
Party leader and Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, FinMin
Benyamin Netanyahu and FM Silvan Shalom indicates that it is
early in the game to be staking out ground. In each case,
leaders have to assess whether they can better achieve their
aims -- both personal and for their parties -- with a tainted
Sharon or with a likely Netanyahu premiership that would last
until the next scheduled national elections in either 2006 or
2007 (Ref A).


3. (C) With Labor quietly considering a possible unity
government with Likud if the right wing bolts the coalition
over Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan, it has kept its
commentary on the indictment low key and restrained. Labor
MK Ofir Pines-Paz called on Sharon to "suspend" himself until
the AG reaches a decision. Labor MK Dalia Itzik, who had
recently met with Sharon on disengagement, recommended that
the Labor Party "wait patiently" until the AG reaches a
decision. Public comments aside, Labor faces the choice of
either sticking with Sharon in the hope of seeing his Gaza
withdrawal plan move forward, and possibly getting invited
into a coalition if and when the rightist parties bolt over
withdrawal, or dealing with a withdrawal-averse Netanyahu.


4. (C) Shinui campaigned in the last elections with an
anti-corruption plank, and Interior Minister Avraham Poraz
said in January that Sharon would be compelled to resign if
indicted. That said, the same "justice" campaigning that got
Shinui elected may equally be turned around to an "innocent
until proven guilty" position in support of a Sharon willing
to withdraw from Gaza. Paritzky's threat that Shinui would
leave the coalition rather than serve with an indicted Sharon
has not been repeated by the party's other leaders, although
one MK made such an assertion to poloff in February.
Paritzky went so far as to suggest that Shinui should leave
the coalition even absent an indictment if the evidence
points to wrongoing. Justice Minister Tommy Lapid said in
January that any conclusions would have to be drawn if and
when an indictment were issued.



5. (C) Shinui could well be replaced on the spot, in any
event, by the rightist religious parties Shas and United
Torah Judaism, themselves home to previous corruption
convictions. Shas and UTJ would also be available to replace
National Union and the National Religious Party within the
coalition, but the latter are unlikely to leave over an
indictment, preferring instead to save their thunder for
resignations over Gaza withdrawal. While inclusion of Shas
and UTJ would challenge the secularist Shinui's continued
participation in the coalition, Shinui could, in turn, be
replaced by a Labor party determined to support a Sharon
withdrawal initiative. Within Likud, as noted Ref A, the
gaggle of Sharon successor candidates must evaluate where
their personal interests lie. Sharon noted publicly March 29
that he is prepared to replace on the same day any parties
that leave the coalition over his withdrawal plan.

--------------
How Far to Go in Protecting Gilad?
--------------


6. (C) One outstanding issue for Sharon remains the degree
to which he will make a decision based on the threat to his
younger son, Gilad. Gilad's high-paid consultancy to
developer Appel's failed Greek island development project is
being taken as key to the bribery charges against the PM.
While Sharon enjoys parliamentary immunity, Gilad has no such
protection. The degree of his vulnerability to criminal
charges in the Greek Island affair is uncertain. Observers
note, however, that Gilad is also implicated in the so-called
Cyril Kern affair in which it is alleged illegal
contributions were funnelled through Sharon's Sycamore Farm
to repay other illegal campaign contributions. On March 29,
the Supreme Court ruled that Gilad had to hand over to the
police all documents and videotapes related to the Appel and
Kern cases. Accordingly, Sharon might be prompted as a last
resort to try to negotiate a withdrawal of indictment in
return for his resignation, but if observers of the
respective cases are right, he would need to negotiate for
both himself and Gilad and for two separate cases.

--------------
Weissglas Dismisses Indictment
--------------


7. (C) PM Sharon's COS Dov Weissglas told visiting former
Ambassador and NEA Assistant Secretary Edward Djerejian March
28 that the those surrounding the PM are confident Sharon
will not be indicted. He added that Arbel's announcement was
no surprise. Other statements coming from the PM's office
echo this view. Sharon had not issued any statements, but
the media speculate that he may address Arbel's
recommendation at the Likud Party Convention on March 30,
where it is anticipated that rank-and-file Likudniks will
support him, since many view the State Prosecutor as being
clearly linked to the left.

--------------
Post-Indictment Scenario
--------------


8. (C) Some media reports speculate, however, that Sharon's
Likud and coalition colleagues could exert enough heat to
force him to resign upon an indictment. IDF radio reported
on March 29 that "senior Likud officials" will ask Sharon to
resign if he is indicted. The broadcast also asserted that
"close associates of the prime minister" are hinting that
Sharon will not remain at his post if indicted.

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