SHARON'S CABINET SECRETARY DOES THE MATH AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001845

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON'S CABINET SECRETARY DOES THE MATH AND
FORESEES A NEW COALITION... SOON

REF: TEL AVIV 1741

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary: Cabinet Secretary Israel Maimon predicted to
Ambassador Kurtzer March 23 that the present government would
not last long. He cited as evidence of "the beginning of the
end" the Shas-sponsored no-confidence motion the previous day
-- hastily withdrawn to show solidarity after the Sheikh
Yasin assassination -- in which a majority of MKs had been
set to vote against Sharon. Maimon predicted that with hard
work, the PM would be able get his disengagement plan
approved by the Cabinet, but that the approval would provoke
the departure of the National Union and the National
Religious Party from the coalition. Among the Likud Cabinet
members, Maimon said the PM could count on the support of
Ministers Olmert, Mofaz, and Ezra. Ministers Landau, Katz,
and Hanegbi are all firmly opposed. Maimon was clearly
relieved that Finance Minister Netanyahu's "yes, but"
approach to the disengagement plan had served to undercut
would-be Likud rebels. End Summary.

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"The Beginning of the End"
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2. (C) "Anyone with any political experience knows this
government will not last forever.... The break point will be
when there is a government decision in support of the
disengagement plan." So said GOI Cabinet Secretary, Israel
Maimon, in a March 23 meeting with the Ambassador, in which
he predicted the departure of the National Union and National
Religious Party as soon as the Government approves the Gaza
withdrawal plan.


3. (C) Illustrating the point, Maimon cited the "close call"
the previous day in the Knesset, where Sharon had barely
avoided an embarrassing no-confidence motion introduced by
Shas. (Note: The motion was withdrawn, apparently at the
request of Likud Whip Gidon Sa'ar, to show solidarity in the
aftermath of the killing of Hamas leader Sheikh Yassin. End
Note.) According to Maimon's calculations, had the
resolution not been withdrawn, the vote would have gone
against Sharon 52-47, with several Likud lawmakers among
those who would have voted in the majority. While taking the
point that this vote would not have jeopardized the Sharon
government, Maimon nonetheless felt that the experience
represented "the beginning of the end" of the present
government. (Note: To be successful, a no-confidence vote
must garner at least 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset. In
addition, those voting against the PM would have to agree on
a consensus candidate to replace the PM, something on which
it is difficult to envision Shas, Meretz, and right-wing MKs
agreeing. End Note.) "It isn't right," he said, "for the
Prime Minister not to have a majority. It means the
government has no right to govern."

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NRP and NU Want Out
--------------


4. (C) On National Union, Maimon cited a conversation he had
held recently with Tourism Minister Benny Elon, who told him
that the NU would quit the coalition, even if the
disengagement plan is Gaza-only. Maimon confirmed rumors the
Ambassador had heard that Transportation Minister Avigdor
"Yvet" Lieberman, also of NU, wanted to stay in the
government as long as possible, however. Emphasizing the
confidentiality of his information, Maimon said Lieberman

SIPDIS
would stay in the government "until the first bulldozer moves
in, or the first settler is evacuated." He said there was a
"slight chance" that Lieberman would stay even after such
moves; indeed it was Maimon's judgment that Lieberman, who is
not an MK, "would do anything to stay in government." He
pointed out that this would cause a split in the party,
however, noting that Israeli law limits the conditions under
which political parties serving in government can split.
(Note: If NU decided to leave the government, Lieberman could
hypothetically remain in his ministerial seat at the
discretion of the PM. Lieberman would probably not be able
to continue representing the NU, unless that party agreed,
and he could end up without party affiliation.)


5. (C) Turning to the National Religious Party, Maimon noted
that there are differences between MKs Effi Eitam and Zevulun
Orlev about how to proceed. He predicted, however, that, "In
the end, all six NRP MKs will be outside government." He
also wagered that the threshold for the NRP's departure would
be much lower than that of the NU's Lieberman.


6. (C) Asked why the right-wing MKs would not choose to stay
in government, where they would be better positioned to block
the disengagement plan, Maimon answered that "This is where
values come into the equation." Beyond the MKs' own
ideological motivations, it would be inconceivable that the
YESHA (settlers) constituency would allow these ministers to
remain in government. Moreover, with the exception of
Lieberman, these cabinet members would still be able to bring
their opposition to the Knesset. Indeed, some of them have
already been doing so, he said, pointing out that NU MK Arieh
Eldad had voted against the PM in a no-confidence motion
earlier in the week.

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Likud Head Count
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7. (C) Asked about the PM's support within the Likud, Maimon
said that he could at least "see the horizon" thanks to the
"yes, but" offered by Finance Minister Netanyahu in response
to Sharon's presentation of his disengagement plans at the
March 21 Likud faction meeting (reftel reports on that
faction meeting). Had Netanyahu instead said "no, but,"
Maimon continued, things would look quite different. Noting
that Netanyahu was the second to speak at that session,
Maimon said Bibi's speech "took the wind out of the sails of
those who were to speak afterwards." (Note: Education
Minister Livnat, who came out against the plan, had spoken
prior to Netanyahu. End Note.)


8. (C) Ultimately, Maimon predicted, the PM would have the
votes he needs from Likud, but he said it would take a great
deal of pressure -- even if Netanyahu succeeds in securing
U.S. guarantees on settlement blocs, the right of return, and
moving the separation barrier. Ticking through the definite
"yes's", he boasted that Minister-Without-Portfolio Gideon
Ezra could always be counted on to do "whatever the PM
wants." He added that Defense Minister Mofaz and Industry
and Trade Minister Olmert could also be counted on to support
the PM's plan. He acknowledged, however, that Likud members
Uzi Landau, Tzachi Hanegbi, and Yisrael Katz were all opposed
to the plan and that there was "no chance" of convincing them
otherwise. He did not anticipate that any of them would
resign, however.


9. (C) Maimon commented that even the "moderates" within
Likud have reservations about unilateral disengagement.
Minister-Without-Portfolio Sheetrit reportedly told Maimon
that Israel should receive some benefit for withdrawing from
Palestinian territories -- preferably from the Palestinians
or, failing that, from the United States. In addition,
without having spoken directly to Immigration and Absorption
Minister Tzipi Livni, Maimon was convinced that her support
would be contingent on some kind of trade-off on the right of
return. Asked about Foreign Minister Shalom's views, Maimon
pled ignorance.


10. (C) On the subject of Shalom, Maimon took satisfaction
that, unlike Construction and Housing Minister Effi Eitam,
the FM toed the PM's line on disengagement on his overseas
trips. He confided that Sharon had taken Eitam to task for
his transgressions on this score, albeit without any
noticeable effect. Eitam reportedly told Sharon that, absent
a binding government decision on the issue of disengagement,
"everything is fair game," a point on which Maimon
editorialized that Eitam would probably not consider himself
bound even after a government decision.

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"What are We Going to Do About Arik?"
--------------


11. (C) Noting that he had been closely watching the body
language of Sharon's Cabinet and Likud faction colleagues
ever since the PM's announcement of his disengagement plan,
Maimon said it is not only the far Right that no longer
recognizes Sharon. The eyes of Likud members "were literally
bulging," he said, during the PM's March 22 speech to the
faction. Limor Livnat's face, according to Maimon, had "Who
IS this guy?" written all over it. He had also overheard two
MKs clucking, "What are we going to do about Arik?"

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