PM SHARON BANKING ON U.S. TO SAVE DISENGAGEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001741

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS ISRAEL RELATIONS
SUBJECT: PM SHARON BANKING ON U.S. TO SAVE DISENGAGEMENT
PLAN


Classified By: Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Following PM Sharon's March 21 meeting with
Likud ministers to discuss his disengagement plan, it appears
that the Prime Minister may lack the necessary Likud
ministerial support for the plan to pass a cabinet vote.
Pundits and Embassy political contacts say the PM will need
to show U.S. support for the plan, and U.S. recognition of
Israeli control over several large settlement blocks in the
West Bank to win sufficient Likud and cabinet support.
FinMin Netanyahu on March 21 conditioned his support for the
plan on an official USG rejection of the Palestinian right of
return, USG support for inclusion of several major West Bank
settlements inside the fence route, and U.S. acknowledgment
of Israel's right to strike against terrorists inside Gaza
even after a Gaza withdrawal. Media pundits and politicians
believe Sharon is banking on the USG's support for his plan
as well as its blessing for Israel's de facto annexation of
the settlement blocs of Ariel, Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion
to sway Likud fence-sitters. End summary.

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Likud Ministers Want to be in the Know -- Already
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2. (SBU) PM Sharon met with Likud ministers to discuss his
disengagement plan on March 21 amid growing concern among his
Likud party colleagues that he would leave for Washington to
discuss his plan before they would be briefed on it. Sharon
reportedly spoke about two different Gaza withdrawal
scenarios -- one that would be an almost complete withdrawal
from Gaza and one that that was more restricted and without
withdrawal from the so-called Philadelphi corridor along the
border of Gaza with Egypt. In another possible variation,
Israel would also dismantle four isolated northern
settlements in the West Bank along with a Gaza withdrawal.
Few ministers reportedly addressed the session and the Likud
ministers will reportedly meet again next week to allow for
further discussion. In order to make his disengagement plan
more palatable to the right wing of Likud, Sharon reportedly
expressed his commitment to seek USG recognition of Israeli
de facto annexation of three large West Bank settlement
blocks -- Ariel, Maaleh Adumim, and Gush Etzion -- in return
for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and from several isolated
settlements in the West Bank. Some observers have also
speculated that Sharon will request U.S. financial assistance
to offset the cost of dismantling settlements.


3. (C) According to media speculation and the statements of
various ministers, some ten ministers out of 23 have
expressed opposition to Sharon's plan, including five Likud
ministers: Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, Public Security
Minister Tzachi Hanegbi, Health Minister Daniel Naveh,
Minister-Without-Portfolio Uzi Landau, and Diaspora Affairs
Minister Natan Sharansky. Outside Likud, the four right-wing
coalition party ministers oppose the plan: Effi Eitam
(National Religious Party),Zevulun Orlev (National Religious
Party),Benny Elon (National Union),and Avigdor Lieberman
(National Union). Eliezer Sandberg (Shinui) told Ambassador
Kurtzer on March 10 that he also would oppose the plan.
Several other Likud ministers have voiced opposition, but are
considered to be wavering on the plan. They include: Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom, Immigration and Absorption Minister
Tzipi Livni, Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Education
Minister Limor Livnat, and Minister-without-Portfolio Meir
Sheetrit. If these four were to join the opponents listed
above, the plan would fail in a cabinet vote. It is unclear
how many of those wavering Likud ministers would be convinced
to support the plan if the U.S. were to publicly support it.
Livni was quoted on the IDF Radio station as saying that
"Weissglas' meeting in Washington is more important" than the
Likud ministerial meeting.


4. (C) PM Sharon has been criticized by his Likud colleagues
for not keeping them in the loop on his disengagement
proposals. In fact, Public Security Minister Hanegbi
complained to Ambassador Kurtzer several week ago that Sharon
had basically "ignored" his own party when it came to the
plan, and had even briefed Labor leader Shimon Peres on it
before briefing Likud leaders. Hanegbi underlined that
Sharon had made a major mistake by not discussing the plan
with Likud. He noted that Sharon could have brought around
more Likud members if he had explained the logic of the plan
to them, but that he had not tried to do this.

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Netanyahu Would Support the Plan -- With Conditions
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5. (SBU) On March 21, FinMin Netanyahu announced that he
would support PM Sharon's disengagement plan with three
conditions premised on U.S. backing:

-- U.S. support for Israel's right to launch
"counterterrorism" activities in Gaza even after an Israeli
withdrawal, and the GOI's control over land, sea, and air
traffic into and around Gaza.

-- U.S. support for completion -- before an Israeli
withdrawal from Gaza -- of the West Bank security fence that
establishes Israel's control over the settlement blocks of
Ariel, Etzion and Ma'ale Adumim as well as the Modi'in road
(443).

-- Explicit and official USG rejection of the Palestinian
right of return. Netanyahu explained that as long as the
Palestinians had the hope of returning to former places of
residence within Green Line Israel, terrorism would continue.


6. (C) In a Jerusalem Voice of Israel Radio Network
broadcast March 21, Netanyahu announced that "if all three
conditions are not met, (he) would not be able to support
(Sharon's) initiative." He called on his Likud colleagues to
"stand united," to support Sharon's plan, but to "insist" on
the three conditions and "secure U.S. support" for them.
Channel Ten reporter Raviv Drucker told poloff on March 21
that FinMin Netanyahu skipped the March 21 cabinet meeting in
order to prepare his statement to the Likud ministerial.
Quoting Netanyahu, Drucker said that Netanyahu told the Likud
ministers that withdrawing from Gaza by itself would be a
dangerous move as it would reward terrorism. In order to
minimize this dangerous perception, Netanyahu aimed to
improve upon Sharon's plan. Drucker speculated that Sharon
might nominate Netanyahu to head a small ministerial team
that would implement the disengagement plan and obtain
Washington's concurrence to his three conditions.


7. (C) In a separate meeting, Deputy PM Ehud Olmert told
visiting Under Secretary of Defense Dov Zakheim that it was
unclear exactly what Netanyahu wants and that some think he
actually is in favor of a Gaza withdrawal. Olmert speculated
that Netanyahu was worried that he, as finance minister,
would be expected to muster the necessary funding to finance
the withdrawal and settler compensation.

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Yassin Hit Could Buoy Support for Plan
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8. (SBU) Observers posit that the IDF targeted assassination
of Hamas leader Shaykh Ahmad Yassin on March 22 could weaken
some Likud disengagement detractors' argument that a Gaza
withdrawal will only serve to reward terrorism and could
embolden Hamas to commit more terrorist acts. Mofaz
announced on Israeli radio March 22, after he met with the
Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, that "the
weaker the terror organizations in Gaza grow,...the easier it
will be to carry out the disengagement plan." Reacting to
the Yassin assassination, Likud MKs successfully convinced
the religious Shas Party to withdraw its no-confidence motion
against Sharon -- on his failure to fully disclose the
details of his disengagement plan -- which Sharon would have
likely won in any case.

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Comment
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9. (C) As the Likud faction continues to discuss Sharon's
plan on March 22, Likud ministerial support for the plan
appears to be contingent on U.S. political support and
possibly financial backing. Netanyahu upped the ante,
calling for U.S. rejection of a Palestinian right of return.
Media analysis abounds that the wavering Likud ministers, and
many wavering Likud MKs, are waiting to see just what in the
way of support the U.S. will offer Sharon in exchange for a
Gaza withdrawal and, perhaps, accompanying withdrawal of
isolated settlements in the West Bank. Given the ideological
and political views of those ministers opposing the plan, as
well as the concerns they have raised about it, it may take
more than positive U.S. statements on the plan for Sharon to
win them over. It could take a change in USG policy on West
Bank settlements.

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