Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TELAVIV1632
2004-03-16 16:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

FOG REMAINS FOLLOWING SHARON WIN ON VAGUE

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001632 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: FOG REMAINS FOLLOWING SHARON WIN ON VAGUE
DISENGAGEMENT PLAN SPEECH


Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen for reason 1.4 (b) and (d
).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001632

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: FOG REMAINS FOLLOWING SHARON WIN ON VAGUE
DISENGAGEMENT PLAN SPEECH


Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen for reason 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary and comment: Following a vaguely-worded
speech that was supposed to be about his disengagement plan,
PM Sharon turned a March 15 Knesset vote on that speech into
a so-called "vote of confidence" on his government -- which
he won 46-45, with 29 members absent. The vote, however
close, meant little since only the opposition can call for a
"no-confidence" vote aimed at toppling a government, and even
then, a no-confidence vote requires 61 votes to pass.
Sharon's tactics nonetheless resulted in the right-wing
coalition partners absenting themselves from the confidence
vote rather than voting against Sharon's speech, and
demonstrating these parties' desire to stay in the coalition.
Media pundits and politicos agreed that while the speech
revealed nothing new about Sharon's strategy for
disengagement, the vote demonstrated the dissension within
the coalition. In any event, PM Sharon's tactics
successfully steered the Knesset away from a vote on
disengagement, leaving observers still in the fog about the
plan itself and whether the plan could win a Knesset
majority. End summary.

-------------- -
Sharon Follows Adept Parliamentary Tactics...
-------------- -


2. (C) At the initiative of the left-wing Meretz party,
which collected the required signatures of 40 MKs, PM Sharon
was required under Knesset rules to appear before the body
March 15 to discuss his disengagement plan. Sharon
reportedly wisely followed the advice of coalition whip
Gideon Sa'ar (Likud),and, at the last minute, turned a vote
on his speech into a vote of confidence on the government,
which he won, 46-45. (Note: Votes of "confidence," even if
lost, have no ramifications for the government other than
possible embarrassment and loss of credibility. An
opposition-called "no-confidence" motion, which must also
nominate an alternative candidate for prime minister, can
topple a government if approved by a Knesset majority of 61
votes.) Sa'ar rightly banked on the two right-wing coalition

parties -- the National Religious Party (NRP) and the
National Union -- not wanting to vote against their own
government. According to Shinui Party advisor Yoram Levy,
Sa'ar had met with the NRP before the plenary to reach some
sort of compromise. In any event, the NRP and National Union
MKs absented themselves rather than vote against the
government. According to the published voting record, 10
Likud members also were absent from the vote.


3. (C) Sharon reportedly also followed Sa'ar's advice to
avoid providing any details about his disengagement plan and
to exclude any reference to such controversial catch-phrases
as "painful concessions," and even the word "disengagement."
The speech was little more than Sharon's appeal, in what he
said is the absence of a Palestinian partner, for Israel to
act proactively, thereby preventing a political vacuum from
being filled by any one of "dozens" of more damaging plans --
such as the Saudi proposal. Sharon noted that National
Security Council chief Giora Eiland is currently formulating
the plan, and promised that when the government approves a
detailed disengagement plan, he will submit it to the Knesset
for a vote.


4. (C) Opposition MKs complained that they were still in the
dark about Sharon's plan. Shas MK Amnon Cohen griped to
poloff on March 16 that Sharon's speech did not reveal any
information on which West Bank settlements Sharon proposes to
dismantle, and that no solution was proposed for who would
"supervise" the Gaza Strip after an Israeli withdrawal. He
underlined that Shas cannot take a position until it knows
more about the plan. Labor leader Shimon Peres accused
Sharon of not even having a plan.

--------------
Coalitions Can Teeter for a Long Time
--------------


5. (C) Media pundits and some MKs say the close vote of
confidence demonstrates just how shaky the coalition is.
Shinui advisor Levy speculated that "Sharon is losing control
of the coalition." He also pointed to the absence of 10
Likud MKs as indicative of Sharon's problems within Likud.
Meretz MK Roman Bronfman asserted to poloff on March 16 that
it was just a matter of time before the NRP and National
Union leave the coalition and that Sharon was actively
coordinating with Peres to form a unity government. Bronfman
emphasized that, in fact, it was Peres who did all of
Sharon's work at the Knesset plenary by "speaking against"
the right-wing parties after they criticized Sharon. He said
that Peres "harshly" accused these parties of providing no
alternatives to Sharon's plan. He speculated that Sharon
would use the March 25-May 2 Knesset recess to work with
Peres to form a coalition and to gain Likud support for a
unity government. Shas MK Cohen questioned whether Sharon
could muster the necessary Likud votes to support a coalition
with Labor. Shinui MK Ronny Brizon, however, commented to
poloff on March 16 that "many coalitions and governments in
Israel have teetered on the brink for a very long time." He
stressed that these votes were only an indication of
problems, not a sign of an impending collapse of the
coalition.

--------------
If It's Monday, It Must be No-Confidence Day
--------------


6. (SBU) While the media often depicts the now weekly
Monday no-confidence votes on Sharon's government as close
calls for Sharon, none of these votes have come close to
bringing down the government. Following are various types of
Knesset votes and their ramifications for the GOI:

-- Vote on PM's policy speech: The Knesset can vote to
approve or disapprove policy speeches. If Sharon had allowed
a straight Knesset vote on his disengagement speech, despite
the fact that it contained no details of his plan or even
referred to dismantling settlements, it was likely that the
NRP and National Union -- as well as some Likud members --
would have voted against the speech. This might have been
embarrassing for Sharon on the broader issue of
disengagement, but it would not have had any concrete
ramifications for the government.

-- Vote of confidence in the government: A vote of
confidence, which is a government-initiated action, has
symbolic significance for the government. If Sharon had lost
this vote it would have been embarrassing, but, again, would
not result in the fall of the government.

-- No-confidence votes: A motion of no-confidence, which may
only be called by the opposition, can bring down the
government if approved by a majority of all Knesset members,
or 61 votes, and if the party calling for the vote also
submits a nomination for a replacement, with a signed letter
from that nominee that he or she agrees to form a government.
All of the no-confidence votes taken to date on the Sharon
government -- called on a weekly basis in the last couple of
months -- have been close tallies yea and nay, but nowhere
near the 61 votes needed, and there has been no indication
that the parties calling the votes have had any replacements
in mind.

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