HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: NATIONALS -

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 002768

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN
STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B
STATE PASS USTR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON ETRD SNAR KJUS PINR HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: NATIONALS -
PASTOR AND LOBO IMPRESSIVE; LIBERALS - ZELAYA CHARISMATIC,
NUNEZ TECHNOCRATIC, AND ROSENTHAL PROBLEMATIC

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 2646


B. TEGUCIGALPA 2635

C. TEGUCIGALPA 1541


1. (SBU) Introduction: During recent meetings with Washington
visitor, National Party leading presidential candidates
Miguel Pastor (first in polls) and Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo
(second in polls) were impressive, Liberal Party leading
presidential candidate Mel Zelaya was charismatic, while
third place Liberal Party candidate Gabriela Nunez came off
as more of a technocrat than a leading politician. In a
previous meeting with PolOffs, second place Liberal Party
candidate Jaime Rosenthal played the part of the intelligent
but questionably-connected businessman/politician. End
Introduction.


2. (U) Director of the Office of Central American Affairs
(WHA/CEN) David Lindwall and Honduras Desk Officer Marcos
Mandojana visited Honduras November 30-December 3 and held
meetings in Tegucigalpa with most of the top contenders for
the National and Liberal Parties presidential nominations.
PolOffs also held a previous meeting with second place
Liberal Party candidate Jaime Rosenthal. Primary elections
are scheduled for February 20, 2005; the general election
will take place November 27, 2005.

Miguel Pastor
--------------


3. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, DCM, PolCouns, and PolOff had
breakfast December 3 with Mayor of Tegucigalpa Miguel Pastor,
who is the leading National Party candidate. Joining Pastor
was his twin brother and campaign manager, Sebastian Pastor,
and senior campaign official Nahun Valladares y Valladares.
Pastor, who has been knocked for staying away from issues of
substance, was impressive in the meeting. He showed a strong
grasp of key issues and had a confident and sophisticated
presence, despite his youthful appearance. He laid out a
nuanced position on crime that included prevention as well as
law enforcement, and stressed the importance of combating
corruption. He highlighted the importance of job creation
and said he supported the U.S.-Central America Free Trade
Agreement (CAFTA). Pastor underlined the need for Millennium
Challenge Account (MCA) assistance. Pastor's team also
stressed the need for election observers during the primary
elections. Lindwall noted that financial constraints argued
against Organization of American States (OAS) observation of
the party primaries in Honduras, and suggested the
possibility of local NGOs and/or students working with the
media, as had been done in Ecuador. Sebastian closed the
meeting with an audacious request: he asked Lindwall and
Mandojana to consider the possibility of a state visit to the
U.S. for Pastor after he becomes the next president, an
outcome they fully expect to achieve.

Pepe Lobo
--------------


4. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, and PolOff met December 1 with
President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, who is running a
close second in the National Party race. Joining Lobo was
the "whip" of the congress, Lobo's ally Juan Orlando
Hernandez. VP candidate and Ambassador to the U.S. Mario
Canahuati was in San Pedro Sula and unable to attend the
meeting. Lobo summarized his campaign focus as jobs and
security (his campaign slogan). Corruption and the rule of
law, including counternarcotics, were focal points of the
meeting. Lobo highlighted recent advances, including an
independent Supreme Court, but acknowledged the Public
Ministry needed to be overhauled. Hernandez noted that high
levels of crime undermined faith in democracy. Lobo candidly
said that there was a values problem in Honduran society
reflected in a lack of respect for the law that was key to
the crime problem. Lobo also noted that poverty weakened
faith in democracy. Lobo and Lindwall discussed the
importance of congressional approval of CAFTA. Lobo noted
that Catholic Church Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez and third place
National Party candidate Gilbert Goldstein had both recently
come out against CAFTA. He avoided any promise of when
congressional action on CAFTA would take place. Lobo also
highlighted tourism, the maquila sector, natural resources,
and agriculture as key to economic growth. Hernandez
emphasized the importance of MCA funds to improve
infrastructure that in turn would boost productivity and the
ability of Honduran producers to compete. Lobo mentioned
that he had met WHA A/S Noriega at a recent meeting of Latin
American congressional leaders. Lobo, as usual, was in
command of a wide range of issues. He appeared confident
about his electoral prospects, most likely boosted by his
recent closing of the gap for the number one spot in polls
for the National Party nomination.

Mel Zelaya
--------------


5. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, DCM, PolCouns, and PolOff had
lunch, hosted by the DCM, December 3 with leading Liberal
Party candidate Mel Zelaya, VP candidate Elvin Santos, and
senior campaign official Patricia Rodas. Zelaya, a
charismatic politician sometimes rapped for a lack of
intellect and limited world view, was engaging and relaxed,
joking that Honduras as David would beat the U.S. as Goliath
in agricultural competition. Zelaya said he supported CAFTA,
stressed the importance of economic development, spoke in
favor of the GOH receiving MCA funds, and denounced
corruption. Zelaya was more focused on substance than in
past meetings with EmbOffs, but several times deferred to his
colleagues to respond to questions, most notably declining to
outline his goals for U.S.-Honduran bilateral relations.
Rodas, who is reported to have a leftist past and is Zelaya's
pick for leader of the party organization, launched a series
of provocative questions, including asking about U.S. views
on greater Central American contacts with China. Santos, was
candid and, as a newcomer to Zelaya's political team, seemed
to not have discussed many political issues with Zelaya.
There was tension between Santos and Rodas, which could
presage difficulties for Zelaya's possible government and its
relations with the private sector, for which Santos was
chosen as VP to lead Zelaya's outreach efforts. Zelaya was
very confident that his place atop the polls is unshakable.
He also demonstrated a managerial style that would delegate
significant operational authority to subordinates while he
focused on larger strategic communication issues.

Gabriela Nunez
--------------


6. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, and PolOff had breakfast
December 2 with Gabriela Nunez, who is in third place in the
Liberal Party race. She was accompanied by her VP candidate,
Guillermo Alvarado, and her campaign manager, Max Gil Santos.
Nunez and her team emphasized that they were focused on
economic development, not politics, and said they supported
CAFTA, despite the fact that they believed GOH negotiators
had overly focused on the maquila industry. Nunez stressed
the importance of election observers for the primary
elections. Nunez repeatedly deferred to her colleagues,
something she has done in past meetings with EmbOffs.
Unfortunately, that led to a tangential soliloquy by
Alvarado, a former Minister of Agriculture who until recently
worked for the Guatemalan agribusiness Gutierrez company, on
sanitary/phytosanitary issues involved in the export of
Central American chicken to the U.S. Nunez's technical
abilities may be strong, but she was the least engaging of
all the top candidates and at her own peril ignores the need
for successful politics to precede policy implementation.
This campaign is clearly a dress rehearsal for a more serious
run for the presidency in 2009.

Jaime Rosenthal
--------------


7. (SBU) PolCouns and PolOff had lunch November 24 with
Liberal Party candidate Jaime Rosenthal and Manuel Gamero,
director of the Rosenthal-owned El Tiempo newspaper. Gamero
has been Rosenthal's recent go-between with the Embassy, due
to Rosenthal's controversial status. Rosenthal said he
believes he can win despite Zelaya's overwhelming advantage
in the polls, and indicated he would go negative on Zelaya as
soon as the official campaign period began. Rosenthal was
dismissive of Zelaya's intellectual abilities, mused that
neither Pastor nor Lobo would be that bad as president, and
spoke without irony about the importance of combating
corruption. The bitterness of the upcoming primaries will
determine which party is more united for the general
election. Rosenthal, as the only presidential candidate from
San Pedro Sula, will play a key role in the general
elections, regardless of his showing in the primaries.

Pastor and Lobo Battling, Zelaya Out in Front
--------------


8. (SBU) Comment: Post's assessment of the candidates'
chances remains unchanged since our last analysis (ref A).
There is clearly a much closer battle in the National Party
than the Liberal Party. Pastor's increased focus on issues
should stand him well against Lobo, but this race will likely
come down to the wire. Pastor is running as a the leader of
a new generation and is in command of the media aspects of
politicking, while Lobo is for all intents and purposes the
current administration's candidate, although they have not
said so publicly or in private, and has the support of the
traditional National Party machine. With formal campaigning
barred until January, it remains to be seen if candidates
that project well in TV spots or small meetings can rouse
support from the electorate at campaign events. The
unanimity of candidates' support for CAFTA was notable, as
was the concern for corruption. All the candidates also
stressed the importance of the bilateral relationship, and
made clear the U.S. is the key partner for Honduras. End
Comment.


9. (U) This cable was cleared by Lindwall and Mandojana.
Pierce