HONDURAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY: PASTOR AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 002646

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, AND WHA/CEN
STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON SNAR KJUS PINR HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY: PASTOR AND
LOBO IN NATIONALIST FIGHT; ZELAYA LEADS THE LIBERALS

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 2635


B. TEGUCIGALPA 1541


1. (SBU) Summary. With the February 20, 2005, primary
elections three months away, the race is tightening on the
Nationalists side with President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe"
Lobo closing the gap on Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor. On
the Liberal side, politician Mel Zelaya is pulling away from
the rest of the pack and looks likely to win the nomination.
Turnout could be the key in these open primaries, the first
ever for congressional and city council candidates. End
Summary.


2. (U) With the February 20, 2005, primary elections only
three months away, here is a snapshot of the leading
movements and their candidates for president and vice
president. (Each movement also has a slate of congressional,
mayoral, and city council candidates.)

National Party (center/right)
--------------

"New Time"
--------------


3. (SBU) Miguel Pastor is the Mayor of Tegucigalpa, young and
media savvy, and has been campaigning as an electable fresh
face based on his success as mayor. He represents a
generational change in the current political leadership and
he has been distancing himself from Ricardo Maduro's
Administration. VP Carlos Lopez Contreras is a former
Foreign Minister and current Honduran representative for
Hague border issues. He is a VP candidate with gravitas.
Pastor, with family connections in major media outlets, had a
commanding lead in the polls, but Lobo has the support of
many party insiders and has been gaining strength in recent
polls. The Pastor movement's San Pedro Sula Mayoral
candidate is incumbent Mayor Oscar Kilgore, which gives him a
strong base on the north coast.

"Work and Security"
--------------


4. (SBU) Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is President of Congress with
considerable experience in politics and as an
agrobusinessman. VP Mario Canahuati is the current Honduran
Ambassador to the U.S., and a maquila businessman who helps
bring support in the San Pedro Sula area. Lobo is running as
a law and order candidate with proven effectiveness as
President of Congress. He has charisma problems but is very
well connected and favored by many party insiders. Lobo has
many links to the "dark side" of the National Party. Lobo's
Tegucigalpa mayoral candidate is President Maduro's private
secretary Ricardo Alvarez, who holds a commanding lead in the

SIPDIS
mayoral race.

"For a Better Alternative"
--------------


5. (SBU) Gilberto "Picho" Goldstein is a congressman and
businessman. VP Irma Acosta de Fortin is a university rector
and was Raphael Callejas' VP candidate the first time
Callejas ran (and lost). Goldstein has no chance of getting
the Nationalist Party nomination, but has some old guard
support in the party. Interestingly, he has become a vocal
supporter of the recent electoral reforms (reftels).


6. (U) Also running, but garnering even less support, is
presidential candidate Jesus Flores and VP Oscar Zuniga.

Pastor Lead Slips as Lobo Gains
--------------


7. (SBU) Pastor, who once had a commanding lead over Lobo in
the polls, now only has a 10 percent lead. An unpublished
October 30 poll that EmbOffs have seen from an independent
and credible polling firm reads as follows:
- Pastor 52 percent
- Lobo 42 percent
- Goldstein 5 percent


8. (SBU) The same poll in early September had Pastor leading
Lobo by almost 30 percent. Pastor has lost ground among
Nationalists, Liberals, and independents. Many independents
who previously said they would vote for Pastor are now in the
undecided column. Pastor has retained strong support in the
18-40 years old age group, but Lobo leads among those over 40
years old, who are more likely to vote. Pastor has been
urging the GOH to do a better job of registering young adults
so they can be eligible to vote in the primary.


9. (SBU) Theories abound as to why Pastor has lost ground and
Lobo has gained. The October 20 submission of the candidate
lists for each movement may have led some weak Pastor
supporters, who were left off the Pastor lists, to defect to
Lobo. Lobo's choice of Canahuati as VP appears to have
helped Lobo more than Pastor's choice of Lopez Contreras has
helped Pastor. Pastor also recently lost a key grass-roots
organizer and very popular local leader in the Tegucigalpa
area, Renan Inestroza, who switched to the Lobo campaign
after a falling-out with Pastor. Inestroza reportedly
thought he was promised a top slot on the congressional
candidate list by Pastor and switched to Lobo when he didn't
make the list. Ironically, Inestroza is not on Lobo's
congressional candidate list either.


10. (SBU) While the campaign is not officially on, Lobo as
President of Congress has been running a series of basic but
effective messages articulating his position on a number of
hot issues - crime, death penalty, gangs, jobs, gay marriage,
etc. Lobo has also been running a negative campaign against
Pastor. At the same time, Pastor has been running slick, but
vacuous, ads, promoting himself as the electable candidate
with leadership and a fresh approach, but not saying anything
substantive. Ironically, the leading Liberal candidate, Mel
Zelaya, is running a campaign that is somewhat similar to
Pastor's campaign, but with a lower profile. Perhaps
realizing Lobo's issues-based campaign appears to be working,
Pastor's latest ad is much more substantive. Pastor is also
likely to criticize Lobo for breaking his promise not to run
for president when he was chosen as President of Congress.

Liberal Party (center/left)
--------------

"Liberal Hope"
--------------


11. (SBU) Manuel Zelaya Rosales, previously a congressman, is
a politician, a farmer, and does not have a university
degree. VP Elvin Santos is a young businessman and the son
of politician (his father has a questionable reputation).
The leading Liberal Party candidate by default it seems; at
this time Zelaya clearly has a commanding lead in the race
for his party's nomination.

"Jaime's Liberal Movement"
--------------


12. (SBU) Jaime Rosenthal Oliva is a businessman,
congressman, and all-around wheeler-dealer with a shady
reputation. VP Ramon Villeda Bermudez is a congressman,
veterinarian, and a past presidential contender who never
gained the nomination. Villeda is the son of former
President Ramon Villeda Morales, who restored democracy to
Honduras in the 1950s. A Liberal Party dinosaur, Rosenthal
is the quintessential party insider who is unable to move up
in the polls, despite heavy self-advertising (he runs one of
the four major newspapers and a television channel). He
shows no signs of being able to topple Zelaya, and
indications are that he plans to go negative on Zelaya to try
to change the dynamic of the race.

"New Majority"
--------------


13. (SBU) Gabriela Nunez de Reyes is an advisor for Atlantic
Bank, a former Minister of Finance in the Carlos Flores
Administration, and previously worked for the IMF. She is
the most viable of the female presidential candidates. VP
Guillermo Alvarado Downing is a former Minister of
Agriculture under the Flores Administration and an
agrobusinessman. Nunez is someone to watch in the future,
but she has little chance to beat Zelaya.

"Pineda's Liberal Movement"
--------------


14. (SBU) Rafael Pineda Ponce is a congressman, an elder
statesman, and is currently suffering from cancer. VP Yansi
Juarez is a woman and an unknown figure. Pineda, a former
President of Congress, has some campesino and union support.
He is respected but has a low chance of winning the
nomination; his days as party leader are behind him.


15. (SBU) Also running, but with even less support, is
presidential candidate Hugo Noe Pino, a former Ambassador to
the U.S. and Minister of Finance, and VP Elsa Palou,
Congressman Jorge Arturo Reina and VP Virginia Figueroa, Vera
Rubi and VP Edgardo Caceres Castellanos, and Mayor of Puerto
Cortes Marlon Lara and VP Daniel Davila Nolasco.

Zelaya With Commanding Lead
--------------


16. (SBU) The same unpublished October 30 poll cited
previously reads as follows for the Liberals:
- Zelaya 52 percent
- Rosenthal 22 percent
- Nunez 9 percent
- Pineda Ponce 8 percent


17. (SBU) Zelaya's lead over his Liberal rivals has
increased, as Pineda Ponce has slipped to fourth place.
Rosenthal, despite more advertising than Zelaya, has not
gained any ground. As previously noted, Zelaya's campaign is
somewhat similar to Pastor's as it has portrayed him as the
electable candidate, without saying anything substantive.
However, Rosenthal has been unable thus far to force Zelaya
into a battle, as Lobo has done with Pastor. Barring an
unexpected development, final results are likely to be along
the lines shown above in the current poll. Nunez and Lara
are the generational transition candidates in the Liberal
Party and are positioning themselves for the 2009 elections.

Minor Parties
--------------


18. (SBU) The Democratic Unification Party (UD) candidates
are "United People Movement" presidential candidate Juan
Almendarez (former communist, heads small human rights NGO),
VP Martha Isabel Sandoval, and "popular Convergence" movement
presidential candidate Jose Maria Turcios (former communist,
alleged to be involved in kidnapping of a bank president in
1981),VP candidate unclear. The UD is far to the left and
is often an anti-U.S. party. They have support from the
leftist protest organization Popular Block and a few public
sector unions. The second UD movement may not be registered,
in which case the UD would not participate in the primaries.


19. (SBU) The Christian Democratic Party (PCD) candidate is
Juan Ramon Martinez (op/ed writer),VP candidate Adela de
Chavarria. The Innovation and Unity Party (PINU) candidate
is Carlos Sosa Coello (congressman),VP candidate Olga
Morales de Galindolean. The PINU and DC tickets are running
unopposed for their parties' nominations, and neither has a
chance to win the presidency. The PCD leans to the right and
PINU leans toward the left.

Key Issues on Voter's Minds
--------------


20. (SBU) In the October poll, Maduro's performance was rated
as bad/very bad by 53 percent of respondents, with 40 percent
rating it as good/very good. This does not bode well for the
Nationalists. Also, corruption scandals in November have
hurt the Nationalists as voters increasingly doubt their
ability to tackle endemic corruption in Honduras. The
Nationalists and Liberals were tied at 42 percent in voter's
party preference; Pastor (26 percent) held a slight lead over
Zelaya (22 percent) and Lobo (20 percent) for president.
When asked what was the most pressing problem facing
Honduras, here is how voters answered:

September 2002 August 2004
crime 44 percent unemployment 30 percent
unemployment 19 percent crime 22 percent
cost of living 17 percent cost of living 21 percent


21. (SBU) On the surface, the switch from crime and
unemployment as a top voter concern during the last two years
should help the Liberals. The Nationalists, thanks to
Maduro, Lobo, and others, are now seen as the law and
order/tough on crime candidates. The Liberals have
criticized the Maduro Administration's failure to boost
economic growth. However, to a certain extent, this change
in voter attitudes may be due to voters giving the Maduro
Administration credit in the one area they have clearly
fought to make a difference - crime. This credit could
potentially help the Nationalists, particularly Pepe Lobo.


22. (SBU) However, one mitigating factor in favor of the
Liberals is that the two Nationalist candidates have been
advertising their respective accomplishments for more than
two years without any Liberal Party opposition advertising,
aside from Rosenthal's self-promotion. Once the Liberals
roll out their campaigns and begin to frame their message on
economic issues, the Nationalists could be vulnerable on
these issues.


23. (SBU) Turnout could be the key to who wins in these open
primaries. In the same October poll, only 37 percent said
they planned to vote in the primaries, with 42 percent saying
no, and 21 percent saying they were unsure.

Pastor or Lobo vs. Zelaya
--------------


24. (SBU) Comment: At this point, it appears that the
presidential race will be Pastor or Lobo vs. Zelaya, with
three months of hard campaigning ahead. Will Pastor be able
to halt Lobo's surge and rebuild some of his shrinking lead?
Will Lobo's broken pledge not to run for President come back
to haunt him? Will Rosenthal be able to shake up the race
and put Zelaya's win in jeopardy? Who will turn out to vote
and which primary will they vote in? The answers to these
questions will determine the outcome of the presidential
primaries. End Comment.
Palmer